2022 Academy Awards Predictions

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It’s officially Oscar weekend. The red carpet has been rolled out and after a year of a scaled-down, a mix of in-person and video attendance looks like the regular Oscar ceremony is back on. And yet, I must admit that this is the first Oscar ceremony in a while that I’m mostly “meh” about.

It may be a combination of things. One, my not loving or being particularly excited about any of the nominated films I saw. Two, not exactly being too eager to watch the ones I haven’t. And three, just the feeling that despite things seemingly getting back to “normal,” this award season still felt subdued and lacked the energy and excitement of previous years.

Whatever the case may be, I’ll still watch, of course, but I doubt I’ll be jumping up in my seat in excitement for any part of the night. That said, there are still some predictions to be made. Most of the categories this year seem well-sewn up, with a few exceptions that offer the possibility of an upset on Sunday night. As usual, I’m going to give my prediction on who and what will likely win. But also, who and what might win, in case the voters decide to shake things up.

BEST PICTURE

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

Will Win: A few months ago, when award season kicked into high gear, this category seemed like a slam dunk for The Power of the Dog. However, a late-season surge from CODA suddenly put that inevitability into question. Particularly, the big upset by CODA at the Producers’ Guild of America (PGA). PGA, as many know, very regularly successfully predicts the eventual Best Picture winner.  I don’t see it this year. Call me stubborn, but I’m sticking to the early season favorite, and predicting The Power of the Dog will emerge victoriously.

Could Win: Well CODA, of course, for all the reasons I outlined above.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Will Smith – King Richard
• Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom
• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will Win: Despite some very messy and awkward months last year where for some odd reason, Will Smith and wife Jada Pinkett Smith wanted all of us to know how disastrous their marriage is, it didn’t stop his momentum for King Richard. Messiness aside, Will Smith has certainly had a long and fulfilling career, showing many facets of his talent. While I’m no huge fan, I can’t say his win this Sunday night, should it happen, will be unearned.

Could Win: It’s hard to imagine an upset here as Will Smith has dominated this award season. And yes, I know what you’re thinking, “remember last year, when everyone thought Chadwick Boseman would win.” And yes, that’s true but remember how Chadwick lost the BAFTA award to eventual winner Anthony Hopkins? Something that did not happen this year with Will Smith. So yeah, this one is a slam dunk this year. If, by some slim possibility an upset happens, I’d say Benedict Cumberbatch will be the likely spoiler.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Will Win: Early predictors suggested that Nicole Kidman would be adding a second Oscar to her already impressive awards collection. However, the tides have significantly changed, and this is looking likely to be a big night for Jessica Chastain for her bold and sincere performance of the late Tammy Faye Baker. Let’s face it, we know how Academy voters love a real-life transformation performance.

Could Win: Sticking to the fact that Academy voters love portrayals of real-life people, if there is an upset on Sunday night, it’s likely to go to Kidman. Although, how insane would it be if Kristen Stewart pulls off the “holy shit, did that just happen” upset. Yeah, let’s not even joke about such a crazy possibility.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Like Best Picture and Best Actress, early-season predictors suggested one thing.  However, recent weeks have proven something else. A few months ago, I would have said this was a lock for Kodi Smit-McPhee for his stellar performance in The Power of the Dog. However, all the momentum heading into Sunday night is with Troy Kotsur. The BAFTA win was a big one, all but solidifying that this is his to lose.

Could Win: Obviously, it’s Kodi Smit-McPhee who started the season with a lot of momentum. Unfortunately, he may be hurt not only by Kotsur’s late-season surge, but also the potential for splitting of votes between him and his Power of the Dog co-star, Jesse Plemons. But if there is a possibility of an upset, it’s going to be Smit-McPhee.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
• Judi Dench – Belfast
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Ricard

Will Win: Another one of the slam dunk categories, as DeBose has won everything this award season. Kudos to her for taking an iconic part that won the original actress a Supporting Actress Oscar and making it her own.

Could Win: It’s hard to imagine an upset here, since as noted, DeBose has cleaned up all season. That said, the Supporting categories are where some of Oscar’s greatest upsets have taken place. If I had to pick a potential spoiler, it’d be Kirsten Dunst. She’s an actress that’s been in the industry for a very long time and in some instances, been underrated. Her performance in The Power of the Dog was heartbreaking and in some ways, a revelation.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Ryusuke Hamaguchibi – Drive My Car
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Will Win: This is a lock for Jane Campion, and deservedly so. Let’s just hope this time she prepares a speech so we’re spared a repeat of that embarrassing shit show she delivered at the Critic’s Choice Awards.

Could Win: Doubtful there will be an upset in this category. However, if Academy voters decide to keep the “old boys’ club” theme going, I guess Steven Spielberg can randomly win for his vanity project. But I doubt it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Belfast
• Don’t Look Up
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• The Worst Person in the World

Will Win: This is a tough one. Conventional wisdom says Belfast is the likely winner – having won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice. However, it lost the BAFTA to Licorice Pizza and we know how much the British Academy loves Kenneth Branagh, so that was a pretty big upset. And there’s the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA), always doing their own thing, where Don’t Look Up won. So which one takes the big prize Sunday night? I’m going to go with gut on this one and say Belfast.

Could Win: Well considering how topsy-turvy the category has been, I’d say just about all of the other nominees could win. But if Belfast doesn’t, look to Don’t Look Up or Licorice Pizza to be the likely winner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• CODA
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• The Lost Daughter
• The Power of the Dog

Will Win: Much less chaotic than Original Screenplay, CODA seems the likely favorite in this category and I’m sticking with that prediction.

Could Win: Much like Best Picture, this category is likely to come down to two films – CODA or The Power of the Dog. So if the former does not win, look to Campion to add to her collection. Interestingly, The Power of the Dog was not nominated for a WGA.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• Encanto
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. The Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

Will Win: Seems like an obvious win for Encanto, one of the most buzzed-about films of the year, animated and otherwise. However, it’s also hard to ignore an animated film that shows up in other major categories, such as Best International Film and Best Documentary. I am, of course, talking about the history-making Flee. That said, I think in the end voters will swing Encanto’s way

Could Win: Most pundits predict The Mitchells vs. The Machines as the possible spoiler here. I don’t agree. Sticking to my comments above, I think Flee’s the likely spoiler here.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

• Drive My Car
• Flee
• The Hand of God
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
• The Worst Person in the World

Will Win: The last few years have proven that it’s silly to bet against an international film that also shows up in the Best Picture category. Think Roma and Parasite. And that means this is likely a lock for Drive My Car. It also helps that it’s all but swept award season.

Could Win: There are two likely spoilers here – The Worst Person in the World and Flee. It’s unlikely but certainly possible.

BEST EDITING

• Don’t Look Up
• Dune
• King Richard
• The Power of the Dog
• Tick, Tick…Boom

Will Win: This year’s editing category is a battle between two very different films – the big-budget, visually stunning Dune, and the intimate, heartfelt, King Richard. Since I believe much of the love for Dune will be showcased in the more technical categories, I’m going to say it’s the likely winner here. It’s a film that moviegoers and I suspect academy voters as well, loved looking at.

Could Win: As noted above, this is a two-way race. If voters swing away from Dune, look to King Richard to take the prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• Be Alive – King Richard
• Dos Oruguitas – Encanto
• Down to Joy – Belfast
• No Time to Die – No Time to Die
• Somehow You Do – Four Good Days

Will Win: Considering Billie Eilish has swept all the major precursor award shows and it’s been a while since a Bond song has lost this category, I’d say this one is a done deal.

Could Win: If there is an upset, unlikely as it may be, much as I know the Beyhive is hoping desperately for Queen Bey to get her Oscar, it’s more than likely we will see Lin Manuel Miranda become an EGOT winner.

Oscar Nominations 2022 – The Surprises, The Not-So Surprising and The Meh

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The nominees for this year’s Academy Awards were officially announced this week (see the full list here). And overall, it turned out much like many expected, with a few notable exceptions. Oh btw, if you’re feeling a bit like this award season has seemed all but nonexistent, it’s not just you.

Typically, by this point of the year, the Golden Globes, with all its fun and excitement, would have already taken place. And many, in the last decades have of course, considered the Globes the official start of Awards Season. Well, the Globes did happen last month. However, as the adage goes, “if a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound?”

Despite’s NBC’s announcement last year that it would not air the ceremony and a string of controversy surrounding the organization, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) stubbornly decided to hand out awards anyway. Even if it meant doing so during an untelevised and unattended ceremony.

So here we are – Oscar nominations announced, yet it still feels like we, or well I am, are still waiting for Award Season to kick into high gear. A great place to start, I guess, is to break down this week’s announcement. Keep reading for my overall impressions of this year’s Oscar nominees.

• The Unsurprising – As expected, The Power of the Dog had a strong showing, leading all other films with a total of 12 nominations. Other unsurprising strong showings were Dune, with ten nominations, Belfast with seven nominations, and King Richard with six nominations.

• The Surprises – It appears that the members of the Academy were not feeling the love for House of Gucci. Not even Lady Gaga, who many considered a sure thing for the Best Actress category, received a nomination. However, to many surprise, who did receive a Lead Actress nomination, was Kristen Stewart for her role in the critically divisive Spencer. After missing out on a Screen Actors’ Guild (SAG) and BAFTA Awards nomination, many predicted that Stewart’s chances had fizzled. I wasn’t so sure. For whatever reason, call it a gut feeling, I knew she’d be nominated. No comment on what I think about her acting in general – the less said on that, the better.

• The “I Didn’t See This Coming” – Contrary to popular opinion, most of this year’s snubs weren’t that surprising to me. However, there were a few names announced that were a surprise. Most notably, J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos and maybe even Javier Bardem, as well. But Simmons was the bigger surprise, as he’s not shown up for any of the big precursor awards. That said, J.K. Simmons is a previous winner, as is Bardem. And the Academy does sometimes tend to lean toward previous winners. I would also throw in Denis Villeneuve’s losing out on a Best Director nod, only because it’s clear the voters loved Dune.

• The Meh – FYI, these nominees are meh to me. I accept that some may feel differently. Full disclosure, I’m not a fan of classic remakes, unless it adds something fresh and distinctive. For example, yes, A Star is Born was the fourth version of that film. But each film had unique characters and backstories of said characters. All this to say that I was underwhelmed by West Side Story and found its nominations for Best Picture and Best Director unnecessary. Frankly, I think Villeneuve would have been a more appealing addition to the category than Steven Spielberg. And just to be clear, I wholeheartedly acknowledge Spielberg’s brilliance as a director. However, I do not believe this remake of West Side Story, lovely as it was, added much to the greater filmmaking zeitgeist.

So who will win? Eh, who knows? As is often the case, the precursors will tell the tale. Having only the various critics’ awards to go on, and maybe the Globes, it’s looking like Netflix may finally nab the Best Picture crown with The Power of the Dog. But don’t sleep on Drive My Car, the surprise international film entry for both Best Director and Best Picture. We all saw what happened with Parasite a few years ago.