2024 Academy Awards Predictions

Lights, camera, action! Oscars 2024 is almost here. Will Oppenheimer continue its months-long dominance and sweep most of the major categories, will Lily Gladstone pull a late-season upset and become the first Native American woman to win Lead Actress? In just a few days, all will be revealed. 

But until then, I have a few thoughts. Here are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. 

BEST PICTURE 

• American Fiction 
• Anatomy of a Fall 
• Barbie 
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Past Lives 
• Poor Things 
• The Zone of Interest 

Will Win – It’s Oppenheimer. Similar to last year’s dominant sweep by Everything Everywhere All At Once, no other film has a shot. This category has been sewn up for months. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) 
• Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”) 
• Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)

Will Win – Much like Best Picture, this one’s been over for months. It’s Christopher Nolan. 

BEST LEAD ACTOR 

• Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) 
• Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) 
• Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) 
• Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) 

Will Win – For many months, my gut kept telling me that this category had the potential to become a tight race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. However, Cillian Murphy’s win at the SAG Awards may suggest otherwise. He’s the heavy odds-on favorite to win. But a little voice in me says that there is the potential of a shocking upset on Oscar Sunday and Paul Giamatti wins. Albeit, the potential is very small. 

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

• Annette Bening (“Nyad”) 
• Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
• Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) 
• Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)

Will Win – Who knew that this was going to be the acting category to emerge with the most intrigue? Especially since many initially thought Lily Gladstone made a mistake submitting in Lead versus Supporting Actress. But here we are, unsure which way this category will go come Oscar Sunday. If we only go by last year, the similarities are striking and it certainly suggests Lily Gladstone will win, much like Michelle Yeoh did, despite Cate Blanchett mostly sweeping the Awards Season. However, Killers of the Flower Moon is certainly not as beloved as Everything Everywhere All At Once was and Poor Things, while not expected to win Best Picture, is fairly critically loved. So hard to say, but I think voters will ultimately lean towards the film they loved more and Emma Stone will win.   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”) 
• Robert DeNiro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
• Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) 
• Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”) 

Will Win – It’s a slam-dunk and it’s not even close. Robert Downey Jr. will win his first Oscar in a long and lustrous career. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) 
• America Ferrera (“Barbie”) 
• Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) 
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)

Will Win – Like Supporting Actor, this one is a done deal and has been so since the Oscar race began. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has this one in the bag. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

• American Fiction
• Barbie
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Will Win – This category has shaped up to be a very interesting one. And with the Writer’s Guild Awards taking place after the Oscars this year, they are no help in sifting through the nominees and picking the potential winner. Months ago, I think many might have thought this would be a fight between Oppenheimer and The Zone of Interest. However, a late-season surge has positioned American Fiction in a much stronger position than many initially realized. I think its win at BAFTA was incredibly significant and for that reason, I’m picking American Fiction to take this one. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• Anatomy of a Fall 
• The Holdovers 
• Maestro 
• May | December 
• Past Lives 

Will Win – When Awards Season began, I think many expected this category to be a lock for Celine Song for Past Lives. Unfortunately, I think it’s clear much of the wind has been knocked out of Past Lives’ sails. And therefore, I’d say right now, the very heavy favorite to win this category is Anatomy of a Fall. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Past Lives pulls off the upset. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• El Conde 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – Another sure win for Oppenheimer. Although, if any film could pull an upset here, it would be Poor Things, which I think represents a pretty formidable foe to Oppenheimer. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

• Bobi Wine: The People’s President 
• The Eternal Memory 
• Four Daughters 
• To Kill a Tiger 
• 20 Days in Mariupol 

Will Win – This might have been a more competitive category if some of the early season favorites, such as American Symphony and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie had gotten in. However, as it were, 20 Days in Mariupol has been unstoppable for months and I don’t see that changing come Oscar night. 

BEST FILM EDITING 

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – Hard to bet against the woman responsible for editing Oppenheimer into a tight three-hour story that never felt guilty of superfluous scenes and moments. It’s Oppenheimer and a win for Jennifer Lame. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• Io Capitano (Italy)  
• Perfect Days (Japan) 
• Society of the Snow (Spain) 
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
• The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

Will Win – This could have been one of the most competitive categories of the whole night, had France not made the bonehead decision to submit The Taste of Things, instead of Anatomy of a Fall as its submission. So as it stands, this is a slam-dunk, pack it up, it’s over, win for The Zone of Interest.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt 
• “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson 
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Music and Lyric by Scott George 
• “ What Was I Made For?” from Barbie, Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell 

Will Win – It’s the battle of the Barbie songs. It seems a foregone conclusion that this will be another Oscar win for the writing duo of Billie and Finneas. However, Academy voters have shown many times in the past that they love to sometimes skew to the off-beat and “unexpected” choices in this category. So don’t be shocked if I’m Just Ken pulls off the upset. Plus, the fact that Billie and Finneas won this category barely three years ago, in 2021, may work against them. Especially considering how young they both are. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Barbie 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Napoleon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – This is a two-horse race between Poor Things and Barbie. There is certainly a strong case to be made for Barbie, but I think Poor Things will edge it out. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• The Creator 
• Godzilla Minus One 
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One 
• Napoleon 

Will Win – It feels like this should be a slam dunk for Godzilla Minus One. However, there is The Creator, which while certainly not a mainstream film, delivered incredible visual effects. Hard to say which way this one will go, especially since the entire Academy votes on the winner, and not everyone truly understands what constitutes great visual effects. In the interest of having to pick a winner, I’ll go with Godzilla Minus One. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• The Boy and the Heron 
• Elemental 
• Nimona 
• Robot Dreams 
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 

Will Win – At the start of this Awards Season, I believed this category was a slam dunk for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. But then the televised awards began and The Boy and the Heron has won every major award, except the Critics Choice. So now I’m torn, and thinking that it may be The Boy and the Heron’s to lose. However, it should be noted that the Animation Guild and PGA awarded Spider-Man the win. Who would have thought Best Animated Film would turn out to be such a hotly debated category? I am predicting Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to win, with the expectation that the wider Academy will have more love for it versus The Boy and the Heron. However, I’m doing so with the caveat that I can absolutely see The Boy and the Heron winning instead. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Barbie 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Napoleon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – Another Barbie versus Poor Things showdown. While a strong case can be made for both films, I do see the argument that as stunning as the Barbie costumes were, the costume designer had a reference point to work from, while Poor Things is mostly the costume designer’s imagination. It’s similar to last year’s argument in this category of Elvis versus Wakanda Forever. On that logic, I’m going with Poor Things for the win. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

• Golda 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 
• Society of the Snow 

Will Win – If there is any category where Maestro has an excellent shot of taking home a win, it is this one. And that is exactly what I believe will happen on Oscar night. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• American Fiction 
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – There are some amazing movie scores in this category, as well as some heavyweight nominees. However, one score, in particular, has been dominant throughout the season. And I believe that streak will continue when Ludwig Göransson picks up his second Oscar for Best Original Score, for Oppenheimer. 

BEST SOUND

• The Creator 
• Maestro 
• Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One 
• Oppenheimer 
• The Zone of Interest 

Will Win – There is some intrigue in this category, as many loved the eerie disturbing sounds of The Zone of Interest. However, it’s hard to bet against a film that featured the sounds of a whole atomic bomb exploding. I’m going with Oppenheimer.

Celebrating Black Excellence: Must-See Films, TV Shows, Albums and Books of the Last Decade

It is officially Black History Month – a time to celebrate the rich cultural tapestry, resilience, and achievements of individuals throughout Black history. And yes, while that should happen every day; because February is officially designated as Black History Month, I feel it’s only right that I acknowledge it with a specific post.

Unquestionably, there is a plethora of resources and literature on various black history topics, which means there is no way to make a definitive list. However, I wanted to share a few films, television shows, music, and books that have shaped the last decade of black history and culture.  

Here is a curated list of must-see films, television shows, albums, and books to explore this Black History Month.

Films:

• Black Panther – Marvel’s groundbreaking superhero film not only shattered box office records but also brought Afrofuturism to the forefront.

• 12 Years a Slave – Based on Solomon Northup’s memoir, the Academy Award-winning film for Best Picture, offers a raw portrayal of slavery in America, while showcasing the resilience and strength of the human spirit.

• Moonlight – Another Best Picture winner, Moonlight is a poignant coming-of-age story that explores identity, toxic masculinity, and love within the Black gay community.

• Selma – Chronicling the historic 1965 marches from Selma to Montgomery for voting rights, this film is a stirring reminder of the tireless fight for civil rights led by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

Television Shows:

• When They See Us – This gripping miniseries by Ava DuVernay tells the harrowing true story of the Central Park Five, nee The Exonerated Five, highlighting the many racial injustices and flaws within the criminal justice system.

• Dear White People – A witty and insightful satire, this Netflix series delved into the experiences of Black students at a predominantly white Ivy League university, tackling issues of race, identity, and activism.

• The 1619 Project – Adapted from a New York Times journalism project, the six-episode anthology series is a blistering and unflinching examination of slavery in the United States through various themes and cultural expressions. 

• Black-ish – Created by Kenya Barris, Black-ish offered a humorous yet insightful exploration of contemporary Black family life, addressing social issues with wit and warmth. A must-watch for its blend of comedy and cultural commentary.

Albums:

• To Pimp a Butterfly by Kendrick Lamar – A masterful blend of jazz, funk, and hip-hop, Kendrick Lamar’s magnum opus explores themes of racial inequality, identity, and self-discovery with poetic lyricism and musical innovation. Also, he was totally robbed at the Grammys for Album of the Year (just saying…). 

• Lemonade by Beyoncé – Through a stirring mix of genres, including R&B, pop, and country, Beyonce’s visual album is a powerful ode to Black womanhood, showcasing various themes, including love, betrayal, resilience, and empowerment.

• Ctrl by SZA – Before the career-defining success of SOS, there was Ctrl, SZA’s debut studio album. A raw and vulnerable exploration of love, heartbreak, and self-discovery, the album features soulful vocals and introspective lyrics.

• Black Panther: The Album by Various Artists – Curated by Kendrick Lamar, the soundtrack to the billion-dollar Marvel film is a musical celebration of Black excellence and African culture, featuring a diverse lineup of artists and genres.

Books:

• Between the World and Me by Ta-Nehisi Coates – Coates’ powerful and intimate letter to his son explores the realities of being Black in America, tackling issues of racism, identity, and systemic oppression.

• The Hate U Give by Angie Thomas – This groundbreaking YA novel follows the aftermath of a police shooting through the eyes of black teenager Starr Carter. It offers a raw and unflinching look at race relations and activism.

• Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi – Gyasi’s sweeping debut novel follows the descendants of two half-sisters, one sold into slavery and the other married off to a British slave-owner. Spanning continents and centuries, Homegoing offers a profound exploration of the intergenerational trauma of slavery and the enduring legacy of family ties.

• The Underground Railroad by Colson Whitehead – This Pulitzer Prize-winning novel reimagines the Underground Railroad as a literal train network, following the journey of a young enslaved woman named Cora. Whitehead’s gripping storytelling shines a light on the harrowing realities of slavery while infusing elements of magical realism.

Whether on screen, in music, or through literature, there is a wealth of wisdom and creativity to explore this Black History Month. Let us take the time to honor and uplift these diverse voices, stories, and contributions and remember to celebrate Black excellence not just in February, but every day of the year.

2024 Golden Globes Recap

The 2024 Golden Globes are officially in the bag. We now have an idea of what direction this new voting body is going to take moving forward, and I’m not sure I love it (more on that below). There isn’t much to say about the ceremony, therefore, rather than a best and worst, I’ll just list a few key takeaways I had about the ceremony. 

• Less Time for the Host’s Monologue – Don’t worry, I will not add to the pile-on of poor Jo Koy. That said, awful jokes aside, there was simply no reason the monologue should have been 15 minutes long in the first place. Award shows producers are always bleating about time, going as far as trying to remove categories during the telecast. But I find it odd that none of them have considered cutting down the host’s monologue. I get that the hosts are typically comedians, which means a pseudo stand-up routine is what works best for them. But the bottom line is people don’t watch these shows for the host – they watch to see if their favorite films or shows win and to see their favorite celebrities. I do believe cutting down these opening monologues to five minutes or less would be a game-changer.

• No Shocking Upsets – The one thing the Globes were known for was doing the unexpected. You could always count on them making some of the most surprising and random choices in a few categories. That did not happen last night. Many wondered how this new voting body would proceed – would they stick with the old unpredictably or fall more in line with the critics and popular opinions? And now we know. As I mentioned in my TikTok video, I’m a bit torn. While I’m happy if this means that most of the corruption of the old HFPA is gone, I liked that the Globes were unexpected. They didn’t just fall in line with The Emmy Awards and other big shows. Because of this, we rarely saw any show or film sweep like we saw on Sunday night.

• Oppenheimer Has All the Momentum – Of course, we know that Globes winners don’t always hold up come Oscar Sunday. However, for now, at least, I think it’s a safe bet to say Oppenheimer is looking very strong for an eventual Best Picture win. At the least, I’d say Best Director for Christopher Nolan, Best Original Score, and probably Best Supporting Actor are very likely.

• Anatomy of a Fall Emerges, Past Lives Stumbles – Late last summer, if you had asked many to predict the films likely to dominate at this year’s Oscars, you probably would have heard Barbie and Oppenheimer, of course, Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives. Sunday night’s Golden Globes placed a huge question mark on the latter’s award chances. And today’s SAG Awards nominations announcement further solidified that question mark. More than Past Lives seemingly fading as a favorite, was the emergence of Anatomy of a Fall as a potential favorite to watch out for. At a minimum, I think they’re a lock for Best International Film (editing this because just remembered that Anatomy of a Fall is ineligible for Best International Film because for whatever reason France chose to submit The Taste of Things as their submission rather than Anatomy of a Fall).

• Best Actress is a Two-Woman Race – Unsurprisingly, Globes solidified that this year’s Best Actress race is a two-way race between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. Similar to last year’s Globes, where Cate Blanchett won Actress – Drama and Michelle Yeoh won Actress – Comedy/Musical, Gladstone and Stone’s wins in the respective categories have solidified them as locks. It’s hard to tell right now which way this will end. However, subsequent ceremonies – Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG should make things a lot clearer by Oscar Sunday.

2024 Golden Globes Predictions – Movies

And we have arrived at the movies portion of my predictions. Buckle in, as this one may be a little all over the place. And once again, I anticipate half of these being wrong. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the movie categories for this year’s Golden Globes Awards.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Oppenheimer
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Past Lives
• The Zone of Interest
• Anatomy of a Fall

Prediction: Yeah, I’m going to play it safe and say Oppenheimer. I could see a potential Past Lives upset, but I think voters will stick with the predictable option. 

BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

• Barbie
• Poor Things
• American Fiction
• The Holdovers
• May December
• Air

Prediction: This one is a lot harder to predict. Conventional wisdom would say Barbie seems the obvious choice. However, Poor Things is a huge critical darling. Torn, but I’ll say Barbie, just because of its cultural and monetary impact last year.

BEST DIRECTOR, MOTION PICTURE 

• Bradley Cooper — “Maestro”
• Greta Gerwig — “Barbie”
• Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things”
• Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer”
• Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Celine Song — “Past Lives”

Prediction: I think Oppenheimer is going to have a big night, and so I’m predicting Christopher Nolan here. 

BEST SCREENPLAY, MOTION PICTURE

• Barbie — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
• Poor Things — Tony McNamara
• Oppenheimer — Christopher Nolan
• Killers of the Flower Moon — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
• Past Lives — Celine Song
• Anatomy of a Fall — Justine Triet, Arthur Harari

Prediction: I’m torn on whether voters will appreciate the originality of Poor Things or the adaptive work of Killers of the Flower Moon. I’ll go with Poor Things.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA 

• Bradley Cooper — “Maestro”
• Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer”
• Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Colman Domingo — “Rustin”
• Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers”
• Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn”

Prediction: I think this may be Cillian Murphy’s to lose. However, I would not be entirely shocked or upset to see Bradley Cooper pull off the win. Either way, I think this win will set the stage for either the beginning of a sweep or shine a light on a possible favorite.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Carey Mulligan – “Maestro”
• Sandra Hüller – “Anatomy of a Fall”
• Annette Bening — “Nyad”
• Greta Lee — “Past Lives”
• Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla”

Prediction: Without the presence of Emma Stone who has possibly the most buzz for the Best Actress category, this is likely to come down to Lily Gladstone or Carey Mulligan. I think Mulligan will take it. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Fantasia Barrino – “The Color Purple”
• Jennifer Lawrence – “No Hard Feelings”
• Natalie Portman – “May December”
• Alma Pöysti – “Fallen Leaves”
• Margot Robbie – “Barbie”
• Emma Stone – “Poor Things”

Prediction: Although I believe Emma Stone will be a heavy favorite to win the Oscar, I am going to go out on a big limb here and boldly predict that Fantasia will win. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario”
• Timothée Chalamet — “Wonka”
• Matt Damon — “Air”
• Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers”
• Joaquin Phoenix — “Beau Is Afraid”
• Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction”

Prediction: This feels like a wide-open category. However, with all the positive buzz around The Holdovers, I am going to predict Paul Giamatti for the win. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – MOTION PICTURE 

• Willem Dafoe — “Poor Things”
• Robert DeNiro — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer”
• Ryan Gosling — “Barbie”
• Charles Melton — “May December”
• Mark Ruffalo — “Poor Things”

Prediction: Charles Melton has been having some early pre-season critical success. I think that may continue. If not, I believe this may be the start of Robert Downey Jr.’s awards season run. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE

• Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer”
• Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple”
• Jodie Foster — “Nyad”
• Julianne Moore — “May December”
• Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn”
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers”

Prediction: Globes have shown love for Rosamund Pike in the past, and this category tends to be one of their more unpredictable ones. That said, I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph will continue her early, pre-season run and win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE, MOTION PICTURE

• Ludwig Göransson — “Oppenheimer”
• Jerskin Fendrix — “Poor Things”
• Robbie Robertson — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Mica Levi — “The Zone of Interest”
• Daniel Pemberton — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
• Joe Hisaishi — “The Boy and the Heron”

Prediction: Poor Things is such an inventive, out-of-the-ordinary film that it would seem the sure thing here. But a little voice is telling me that voters will stick to the predictable option of Oppenheimer. 

BEST PICTURE, NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — France
• “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Finland
• “Io Capitano” (01 Distribution) — Italy
• “Past Lives” (A24) — United States
• “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — Spain
• “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — United Kingdom

Prediction: I have no idea how or why Past Lives is included in this category, but no matter the reason, it will likely win. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG, MOTION PICTURE 

• “Barbie” — “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas
• “Barbie” — “Dance the Night” by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
• “She Came to Me” — “Addicted to Romance” by Bruce Springsteen and Patti Scialfa
• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” — “Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, and John Spiker
• “Barbie” — “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
• “Rustin” — “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz

Prediction: This will likely be the start of a clean sweep for Billie and Finneas for What Was I Made For. Of course, if voters lean more towards the quirky, fun and truly original, we may see another Barbie hit – I’m Just Ken – take the big prize.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, ANIMATED 

• “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
• “Elemental” (Disney)
• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal Pictures)
• “Suzume” (Toho Co.)
• “Wish” (Disney)

Prediction: Because I haven’t seen many of these, I will err on the side of caution and go with the buzz and say either The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. 

BEST CINEMATIC AND BOX-OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

• “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
• “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Disney)
• “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate Films)
• “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal Pictures)
• “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (AMC Theatres)

Prediction: Hard to imagine an award show passing up the opportunity to blow more smoke up Taylor Swift’s ass, but I’m pretty sure this is an easy win for Barbie. 

2023 Golden Globes Predictions – Television

Happy 2024! It’s a new year, and that means the start of another awards season. As is customary, the Golden Globes will start things off. And as is also customary, I look forward to many of my predictions being proven wrong come January 7. But hell, that’s half the fun. 

This year, I’ve finally wised up and decided to make this prediction post a two-parter – one for television and another for the film categories. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the television categories for this year’s Golden Globes Awards.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

• “1923” (Paramount+)
• “The Crown” (Netflix)
• “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
• “The Last of Us” (HBO)
• “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
• “Succession” (HBO)

Prediction: Succession…period. 

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

• “The Bear” (FX)
• “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
• “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
• “Jury Duty” (Amazon Freevee)
• “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
• “Barry” (HBO)

Prediction: Globes often like to reward freshman shows. However, the voting body of the Globes has changed, and we don’t yet know how this new body will vote. But still, erring on the side of how random the Globes have been in the past, I’ll say Jury Duty for a shocking upset. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

• Pedro Pascal — “The Last of Us”
• Kieran Culkin — “Succession”
• Jeremy Strong — “Succession”
• Brian Cox — “Succession”
• Gary Oldman — “Slow Horses”
• Dominic West — “The Crown”

Prediction: I know the critics all think Kieran Culkin gave possibly the best performance this year and yes, Succession will likely win Best Drama, but I think voters will swing in Pedro Pascal’s favor here. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

• Helen Mirren — “1923”
• Bella Ramsey — “The Last of Us”
• Keri Russell — “The Diplomat”
• Sarah Snook — “Succession”
• Imelda Staunton — “The Crown”
• Emma Stone — “The Curse”

Prediction: This category is a bit all over the place. Conventional wisdom would say it’s Sarah Snook’s to lose. However, who knows? Still, I’ll play it safe and pick her, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the other women win. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES, MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

• Ayo Edebiri — “The Bear”
• Natasha Lyonne — “Poker Face”
• Quinta Brunson — “Abbott Elementary”
• Rachel Brosnahan — “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
• Selena Gomez — “Only Murders in the Building”
• Elle Fanning – “The Great”

Prediction: Globes typically don’t do repeat winners. However, who knows if this new voting body will do things differently and so we might get a repeat win for Quinta Brunson. That said, I’m putting my money down on either Ayo Edebiri or Natasha Lyonne to take this one. 

BEST ACTOR IN A TV SERIES, MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

• Bill Hader — “Barry”
• Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building”
• Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building”
• Jason Segel — “Shrinking”
• Jason Sudeikis — “Ted Lasso”
• Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear”

Prediction: I think this one is a slam dunk for Jeremy Allen White. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, TELEVISION 

• Billy Crudup — “The Morning Show”
• Matthew Macfadyen — “Succession”
• James Marsden — “Jury Duty”
• Ebon Moss-Bachrach — “The Bear”
• Alan Ruck — “Succession”
• Alexander Skarsgård — “Succession”

Prediction: This seems like an easy win for Matthew Macfadyen for Succession. However, don’t be too shocked if voters go with Marsden for Jury Duty. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, TELEVISION 

• Elizabeth Debicki — “The Crown”
• Abby Elliott — “The Bear”
• Christina Ricci — “Yellowjackets”
• J. Smith-Cameron — “Succession”
• Meryl Streep — “Only Murders in the Building”
• Hannah Waddingham — “Ted Lasso”

Prediction: Feels like it’d be foolish to bet against Meryl Streep. Also, I can’t say there are any true heavyweights in this category (yes, Hannah Waddingham has won an Emmy for her role on Ted Lasso, but she’s never been a Globes favorite). 

BEST LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION 

• “Beef”
• “Lessons in Chemistry”
• “Daisy Jones & the Six”
• “All the Light We Cannot See”
• “Fellow Travelers”
• “Fargo”

Prediction: A few months ago, I might have said this is an easy win for Beef, but I think it coming out much earlier than most of the other nominees in this category may work against it. I’m going with Fellow Travelers for the win. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers”
• Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones & the Six”
• Jon Hamm — “Fargo”
• Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers”
• David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves”
• Steven Yeun — “Beef”

Prediction: This is a tough category with a couple of big names. Because I noted that I think the voters may lean towards Fellow Travelers, I’m going with Matt Bomer for the win. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

• Riley Keough — “Daisy Jones & the Six”
• Brie Larson — “Lessons in Chemistry”
• Elizabeth Olsen — “Love and Death”
• Juno Temple — “Fargo”
• Rachel Weisz — “Dead Ringers”
• Ali Wong — “Beef”

Prediction: This is where I think Beef has the best chance of scoring a win. I’m predicting Ali Wong for the win. 

BEST PERFORMANCE IN A STAND-UP COMEDY OR TELEVISION

• Ricky Gervais — “Ricky Gervais: Armageddon”
• Trevor Noah — “Trevor Noah: Where Was I”
• Chris Rock — “Chris Rock: Selective Outrage”
• Amy Schumer — “Amy Schumer: Emergency Contact”
• Sarah Silverman — “Sarah Silverman: Someone You Love”
• Wanda Sykes — “Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer”

Prediction: This really can go in any direction, so I’ll pick Ricky Gervais only because he’s hosted the Globes multiple times (yes, really, that’s my reasoning). 

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

We made it. After months and months of predictions on who and what films would be nominated, with a few controversies along the way (hello Andrea Riseborough), to predictions on what films and actors will win, we’re finally at Oscar week. And in just a few days, all will be revealed. 

Will it be an Everything Everywhere All At Once sweep? Will Cate Blanchett win her third Oscar or will Michelle Yeoh make history as the first Asian woman to win Lead Actress? And will it be Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser or neither for Lead Actor? I have a few thoughts. Here are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. 

BEST PICTURE 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Will Win – Pack it up, it’s a done deal. Everything Everywhere All At Once will win. Yes, we’ve seen instances, no matter how rare, of the Producer’s Guild Award (PGA) winner not winning Best Picture – see 1917 losing to Parasite after winning PGA. But in all these years, there was a solid number two or three to the frontrunner film or a strong two-horse race. See CODA versus The Power of the Dog last year. Not the case this year. No film has solidly risen to challenge Everything Everywhere’s dominance. Hard to see them losing at the finish line. 

Could Win – Honestly couldn’t tell you. I guess there is a fantasy world where Top Gun: Maverick pulls out the come-from-behind storybook win or perhaps BAFTA may prove prophetic for Best Picture and All Quiet on the Western Front could win. My favorite upset would be The Banshees of Inisherin pulling out the stunning upset but yeah, don’t see it happening. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Todd Field (“Tár”) 
• Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Will Win – Much like the PGA win, hard to bet against The Daniels after the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) win. Plus BAFTA proved irrelevant for this category, as they awarded Edward Berger the win, who is, of course, not nominated. 

Could Win – It seems hard to imagine that with The Fabelmans losing so much steam, Spielberg could pull off this win. Plus, you would think if he had any real shot in this category, DGA at least would have gone his way. I think the real possible upset in this category is Todd Field. There appears to be a lot of low-key passion for Tár by the Academy. 

BEST LEAD ACTOR 

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”) 
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) 
• Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) 
• Bill Nighy (“Living”) 

Will Win – This one has certainly shaped up to be quite an interesting race. When award season began, many pundits were certain that this was going to be another season sweep, a la Will Smith last year, for Brendan Fraser. Not so much. Instead, the kid who started on Nickelodeon came in and shook things up. And now it’s seemingly a dead heat between Fraser and Austin Butler. So which one is taking it? Well, I’m going to go with the gut, and stats on this one and say, Austin Butler. The stats – BAFTA has correctly predicted the last eight Best Actor Oscar winners including two where someone else won SAG – Casey Affleck over Denzel Washington and Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman. Austin won BAFTA and Fraser won SAG. And the last time a lead actor won without their film being nominated for Best Picture was in 2009. The Whale is not nominated for Best Picture but Elvis is.

Could Win – There may be more members of the Academy moved by the narrative than I suspect and so Brendan Fraser’s apparent comeback narrative may be enough to take the win. I hope not because lovely as I think Brendan Fraser seems, I hated The Whale. 

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
• Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win – I have believed Cate Blanchett will win her third Oscar for months and my mind has not changed. Yes, I’ve read all the arguments about Michelle Yeoh’s amazing narrative – first-time nominee in a long and respected career, best chance and possibly only chance to win a Lead Actress Oscar, would be history-making, etc. And still, I cannot shake the feeling that when it’s all said and done, a larger share of the Academy will ignore all the narrative and pick a woman whose talent they deeply respect, in a film they also appreciated a lot based on its nominations, and for a performance many believe is her greatest yet. 

Could Win – Michelle Yeoh, of course. And yes, for all the narrative reasons I noted above, as well as her possibly riding the Everything Everywhere momentum wave. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”) 
• Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Will Win – Blessedly a fairly straightforward acting category. Ke Huy Quan is a lock to win this category. 

Could Win – I guess there is the possibility that a significant number of Academy members really love The Banshees of Inisherin and so Barry Keoghan’s upset win at BAFTA repeats at the Oscars. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
• Hong Chau (“The Whale”) 
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win – I feel like any of these five women’s names could be called on Sunday night and I would not be the least bit surprised. That’s how wide open this is. However, if I go with head and stats, I think Kerry Condon will win. Typically when the Supporting races are as wide open as this, the BAFTA winner tends to prevail, and Condon won a lot of pre-season critics’ awards. So her win would hardly be considered an upset. 

Could Win – Heart says, Angela Bassett. And I genuinely hope the heart wins out. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

• All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
• Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Will Win – With Women Talking getting a surprise Best Picture nomination, followed by the film winning Adapted Screenplay at this year’s Writers’ Guild Awards (WGA), seems the safe bet to predict Sarah Polley will win the Oscar. 

Could Win – I understand the buzz around a potential win for All Quiet on the Western Front based on the fact that it is an adaptation of a beloved novel and the film overall has a lot of Academy love based on all the nominations it received. However, I can’t shake the feeling that if anyone but Sarah Polley wins here, it will be Kazuo Ishiguro for Living. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• Tár,” Written by Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund

Will Win – Hard to bet against Everything Everywhere All at Once, when so much of the love for the film is its original concept. Of course that’s less the actual script and more the overall story, but I suspect voters won’t make that distinction. And of course, it swept almost all the Guilds including yes, winning Original Screenplay at WGA.

Could Win – Personally, if I were a voting member of the Academy, my pick would be The Banshees of Inisherin and I do think it has the best chance of all the other nominees to possibly upset Everything Everywhere here. Aside from genuinely loving the film and its script, I would also just like to see Martin McDonagh win something on Oscar night. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
• Elvis,” Mandy Walker
• Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
• Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win – So a few weeks ago I would have said I’m locked in on All Quiet on the Western Front winning this category and I’m not changing my mind. Well, I was wrong and have indeed changed my mind. I now believe Elvis is going to win, which would be particularly awesome, as Mandy Walker, the cinematographer, would make history as the first woman to ever win in this category. 

Could Win – All that said, the reason I initially believe All Quiet was a lock is that the Academy’s love for war films in this category is a very real thing. Of course, since 1917 won barely a few years ago, it does feel a bit like, “been there, done that.” 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny

Will Win – Navalny has all the momentum and significant guild wins in its corner right now. Hard to bet against it. 

Could Win – There is a lot of passion for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, so an upset is possible. 

BEST FILM EDITING 

• The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers
• Tár,” Monika Willi
• Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton

Will Win – As with most categories they’re nominated in, the safe bet here is Everything Everywhere, especially when you consider it is a film about traveling through multi-universes. 

Could Win – It could not have been easy editing all those flight sequences to make them look seamless, and for that and other reasons, I think Top Gun: Maverick has the best chance to upset here.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) 
• Argentina, 1985” (Argentina) 
• Close” (Belgium)
• EO” (Poland) 
• The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) 

Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front. I cannot think of an international film nominee that also got a Best Picture nomination and didn’t win this category. It’s done. 

Could Win – On the slight chance that complete madness ensues on Oscar night, there could be a potential upset by Argentina, 1985, which did win the Golden Globe. But yeah, not happening. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose  
• This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne 

Will Win – Naatu Naatu seems the obvious choice here, having won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice. It’s also probably the most “original” of all the nominees. That said, considering this is the film’s single nomination despite having strong buzz early in award season, perhaps Academy voters may not love the film that much. 

Could Win – Personally, if I was a member of the Academy, my vote would go to Hold My Hand. I thought Lady Gaga perfectly captured the 80’s big-ballad vibe of the original film’s big song – Take My Breath Away – but managed to still make her version sound modern and current. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

Will Win – Babylon has been sweeping this category at most precursor awards, so I’ll play it safe and predict they’re winning the ultimate prize. 

Could Win – How much love does the Academy have for Elvis? The answer to that question may result in its pulling the upset. Well, that and their love for the legendary Catherine Martin who won this category years ago for another Baz Luhrmann film – The Great Gatsby. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – Avatar, period. 

Could Win – No one. Avatar will win. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Will Win – Pinocchio has been one of the few locks all season long. That will hold up on Oscar night. 

Could Win – There is a lot of love for Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, so it could upset but I don’t see it happening. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Babylon,” Mary Zophres
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter
• Elvis,” Catherine Martin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan

Will Win – Catherine Martin could win two Oscars on Sunday because Elvis is very likely taking this one. 

Could Win – Depending on how obsessed Academy voters are with Everything Everywhere there is potential for it to upset here but very unlikely. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

Will Win – Many believe this category may well determine the Best Actor race. If voters were more impressed with the 600-pound transformation of Brendan Fraser in The Whale then he wins Best Actor. But if they’re more impressed by Austin Butler’s transformation from young Elvis to aging, bloated Elvis, then Austin wins. Lucky then I picked Austin Butler to win Best Actor because I believe Elvis is winning this category. 

Could Win – Many would say The Whale but what the hell, for some chaos, I’d say The Batman could pull a surprise win here. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

Will Win – There isn’t a solid lock in this category. Some weeks ago, I would have said Justin Hurwitz winning was a sure thing. But based on the Academy’s overall lukewarm response to Babylon, that’s no longer a given. All that said, I’m still not ready to write off Hurwitz. So Babylon it is. 

Could Win – Because this category isn’t a lock, there are many potential upsets but if I had to pick one, I’d say All Quiet on the Western Front. Unless the Academy decides to honor John Williams less for The Fabelmans and more for his stellar career. 

BEST SOUND

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – I feel certain that this is Top Gun: Maverick’s best chance for an Oscar win. So Top Gun: Maverick it is. That and also the sound was amazing, which makes the film more than deserving.

Could Win – War-themed movies tend to do well in this category so I have to concede the possibility of All Quiet on the Western Front winning. 

2023 SAG Awards Predictions

It is the final big one before the BIG ONE – aka, the Oscars. The Screen Actors Guild is ready to hand out their awards for the best film and television acting performances of 2022. 

Unlike some previous years where many of the film acting categories were locked by this point, that is not the case this year, making this year’s ceremony much more intriguing. One thing is certain, by the end of tomorrow night’s ceremony, we will have a much clearer picture of who is likely to take home Oscar gold on March 12. Here are my predictions for this year’s SAG awards. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• Steve Carrell (The Patient)
• Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
• Sam Elliott (1883)
• Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
• Evan Peters (Dahmer)

Will Win – Evan Peters. Yes, there was controversy around the miniseries. However, what was never in dispute was Peters’ chillingly masterful performance. Not to mention that despite the controversy the streaming numbers for Monster were incredible. Before Wednesday debuted, it was the most-watched series on Netflix for 2022. 

Could Win – SAG has this annoying aspect where it does not include supporting categories. As a result, you will often find actors who have swept supporting categories at the Emmys or Golden Globes, competing in Lead at SAG, which is the case here for Paul Hauser. He has been on a roll these past two months, winning the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice, for Supporting Actor. So it would not be too shocking to see him pull off an upset, as it is clear voters love his performance. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• Emily Blunt (The English)
• Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
• Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
• Niecy Nash Betts (Dahmer)
• Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)

Will Win – Amanda Seyfried is the safe bet here as she has yet to lose this category since last year’s Emmys. And her performance as Elizabeth Holmes is lauded across the board. 

Could Win – Do not sleep on Nicey Nash Betts here. The fact that she made it into this category is impressive enough, and she gives a career-defining performance in Monster. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
• Bill Hader (Barry)
• Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Will Win – Jeremy Allen White seems the obvious winner here. He’s a fresh face in the category from a much-buzzed-about freshman show, whether or not some believe it is a comedy. Also, he is the only one in the category not in danger of splitting votes with a castmate. 

Could Win – It is more than possible that a guild of fellow actors could choose to reward a legendary actor like Martin Short or Steve Martin. Also, Bill Hader, surprisingly, has never won this award despite the critical love for Barry. With no Jason Sudeikis to battle against, this may be his moment. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

• Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
• Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
• Jean Smart (Hacks)

Will Win – I will be honest, I was surprised that only Quinta Brunson got in here for Abbott Elementary. Lovely as Quinta is, I think of her as more of the Jerry Seinfeld of Abbott Elementary. That her strength is as the writer/creator of the show versus the acting, where to be frank, most of the cast outshines her. So that said, I think SAG voters will stick to last year’s script and award Jean Smart her second consecutive Lead Actress award. 

Could Win – Well, Quinta, of course, depending on how much the voters love Abbot Elementary. It would be highly entertaining if Jenna Ortega were to pull off a surprising win here. 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• Barry
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Only Murders in the Building

Will Win – This is where I believe Quinta will get her award, as part of the ensemble of Abbott Elementary, and deservingly so. Abbot Elementary boasts one of the most impressive company of actors – from Tyler James Williams, Janelle James, and Sheryl Lee Ralph – they all deliver every time. 

Could Win – Hard to say, as I think Abbott is the sure thing in this category. But perhaps Hacks or even Only Murders may pull off a surprise upset, with the Ted Lasso juggernaut not present this year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

• Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
• Jason Bateman (Ozark)
• Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
• Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
• Adam Scott (Severance)

Will Win – SAG voters love Marty Byrde (aka Jason Batement in Ozark), as evidenced by his two SAG awards for Lead Actor in a Drama Series. So hard to bet against him here, as this was the show’s farewell season. 

Could Win – Bob Odenkirk has so often been an, “always a runner-up, never the winner,” in this category, that voters may decide it is time he finally has the winning moment. Of course it is never wise to sleep on a legendary actor like Jeff Bridges. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

• Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
• Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
• Julia Garner (Ozark)
• Laura Linney (Ozark)
• Zendaya (Euphoria)

Will Win – One of the toughest categories, with three separate Emmy/Golden Globes winners in the category (once again, SAG does not do Supporting, which is where Julia Garner typically competes). Neither Zendaya nor Julia or Jennifer have lost an award they were nominated for in months. So who will the voters choose? Well, I may be way off base for this one, especially as Hollywood seems so in love with Coolidge, but I think Zendaya will take it. 

Could Win – Jennifer Coolidge, of course. 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

• Better Call Saul
• The Crown
• Ozark
• Severance
• The White Lotus

Will Win – Like Quinta Brunson, I believe this is where Jennifer Coolidge will win her award when The White Lotus is awarded Best Ensemble in a Drama Series. 

Could Win – Many of the nominees are strong enough to win. However, I would say Ozark is the obvious choice, as once again, it was the show’s farewell season and voters love the collective performances of the actors. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
• Hong Chau (The Whale)
• Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win – A few months ago, Supporting Actress seemed a toss-up. Then Angela Bassett won Globes and Critic’s Choice, and it looked like she was on her way to a full sweep, culminating in an Oscar win. But then BAFTA happened last weekend, where Kerry Condon emerged victorious, which cannot be dismissed as Condon has numerous critics’ awards under her belt. All that said, I think SAG voters are sticking with Bassett. SAG voters love a narrative and they especially love awarding legendary actors who have perhaps not yet fully gotten their due – think Ruby Dee’s win in this same category for American Gangster. So, Bassett, it is. 

Could Win – Kerry Condon, of course. That said, SAG also does like to throw a curveball or two, so don’t be too shocked if Jamie Lee Curtis sneaks out the win. Especially since much of the narrative I noted above regarding Angela Bassett applies to Jamie Lee Curtis as well. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
• Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Will Win – Ke Huy Quan. BAFTA certainly seemed to throw a spoke in the wheel of what looked like a Quan awards season sweep. However, I do not see a repeat of Barry Keoghan’s win and think the Quan winning train will get back on track. 

Could Win – Either Barry Gleeson or Barry Keoghan. It depends on how much SAG voters love The Banshees of Inisherin and which of the two they love more. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Cate Blanchett (Tár)
• Viola Davis (The Woman King)
• Ana de Armas (Blonde)
• Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win – Many believe this is still a race here, again based on the narrative around Michelle Yeoh – an older actress of color where this may be her best performance and the best chance for an Oscar. I don’t agree. People have been saying for months this is a tight race between Cate and Michelle, but Cate has not lost yet. I think Cate Blanchett is a lock here and a lock to win her third Oscar come March 12. 

Could Win – Despite many believing this to be a race between Cate and Michelle, I can see SAG voters, as a possible makeup for the Oscar snub of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, awarding Danielle the win. And that is not to say that Danielle would be an undeserving winner, but once again, SAG voters love a narrative. And every once in a while, they throw a surprising win that has no chance of repeating at the Oscars. Think Emily Blunt winning Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Austin Butler (Elvis)
• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
• Bill Nighy (Living)
• Adam Sandler (Hustle)

Will Win – This is probably the category that all eyes will be on. The reason is because it may be the difference between the Oscar race for Best Actor being all but over, if Austin Butler wins versus it still simmering, if Brendan Fraser wins. I know I have talked about how much SAG voters love a narrative, and Fraser has probably the best of all the nominees. Still, at its core, his performance was transformative, as was Austin’s, but in a movie that fewer people loved, as compared to the response for Elvis. So what do I think will happen? I’m tentatively leaning toward Austin Butler. I think as much as SAG voters may love Brendan, there has been an obvious tidal shift in Austin’s favor, and I think many voters will fall in line with that shift. 

Could Win – Brendan Fraser, of course. But it would be hilarious if this is the one that Colin Farrell wins, when everyone thought if any award was a sure thing for him, it was BAFTA? 

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Women Talking

Will Win – Perhaps one of the toughest years in this category because so many of the nominees are deserving. The award will likely come down to the two award-season favorites – The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. If I consider history, I am going to say Everything Everywhere wins. One, because it is deserving and two, it is a film with a heavy Asian cast. Think Black Panther winning some years ago. 

Could Win –The Banshees of Inisherin. It is hard to dismiss a film that, like Everything Everywhere, has four acting nominees. That is as clear an indication as ever that it is a strong ensemble of actors.

2023 Grammy Awards – Best and Worst

Admittedly, I initially did not plan on making this post. Because honestly, my overall reaction to this year’s Grammy Awards was – “I mean, I guess…” Plus, at first, I honestly could not think of five moments from the night that I genuinely loved. The worst definitely outpaced the best for me. But I persevered and managed to pull together five things about this year’s Grammy Awards that I didn’t hate. Read on for the full list of best and worst.

BEST 

1. Everyone’s a Winner – Well, almost everyone. I did appreciate that there was no sweep, like the last time Adele was nominated for example, for 25, and she won AOTY, SOTY, and ROTY, along with the pop categories. This year, Grammy voters definitely spread the wealth. Multiple people went home with at least one or two awards. 

2. Queer Representation – Kim Petras made history as the first openly transgender woman to win a Grammy for her collaboration with Sam Smith before the duo served up one of the few memorable performances of the night. It was also sweet to have Brandi Carlile’s wife and their two adorable children introduce her performance. 

3. 50 Years of Hip-Hop/Rap Celebration – I’ll avoid my rant about how Grammy voters obviously have little to no respect for Hip-Hop/Rap (more on that below) and appreciate this brilliantly assembled celebration of the genre. From old-school legends like Rakim and Run DMC to artists who defined the early ‘00s like Missy Elliot and Nelly, and the new talent on the rise, like Da Baby and GloRilla – it was a fitting celebration of one of the most beloved, yet misunderstood art forms. It would have been nice to see some legends like Nas and Eminem, though it was understandable why the latter was not present, considering his feelings about the Grammys. 

4. Bad Bunny’s Puerto Rican Celebration – It was certainly not my favorite opening performance at the Grammys – not even close. Admittedly I’m not the biggest or, honestly, even a mild fan of Bad Bunny’s music. However, I appreciated the high energy of the performance and its tribute to Bad Bunny’s cultural heritage. And it certainly got the audience on their feet, which is always a win. 

5. In Memoriam – Unless it is the Academy Awards, which for some reason, cannot seem to get something as simple as an In Memoriam tribute right, the In Memoriam segments are usually one of my favorite parts of an award show. I know that may seem a bit morbid, however, it’s more an appreciation of the celebration of the talented artists who left an indelible impact on the industry. And this year’s In Memoriam segment struck the perfect chord from Kacey Musgraves’ tender cover of Loretta Lynn’s Coal Miner’s Daughter, Quavo’s emotional tribute to Takeoff and culminating in Sheryl Crow, Bonnie Raitt and Mick Fleetwood’s pitch-perfect performance of Songbird, in tribute of Christine McVie. 

Honorable Mention – Taylor Swift NOT winning Song of the Year for a more than decade-plus song originally from a decade-plus old album that was already nominated for Album of the Year years ago. I don’t care that it is a re-recording that was expanded to 10 minutes, complete with an accompanying insufferable video. It is an old song that should not have been nominated. 

WORST 

1. The Show that Wouldn’t End – Four hours! Four long hours. It was like a bad date that seemingly would not end. And for the record, by the third hour, it felt like five. Grammy producers need to do better. There is simply no reason why this show has to be so long. Especially when it is not like most of the performances were particularly interesting or memorable. 

2. Lackluster Performances – Outside of a few that I have already referenced – Bad Bunny’s opening performance, In Memoriam segment, Hip-Hop/Rap tribute – many of the performances ranged from serviceable to unmemorable, to plain boring. And that just made an already very long night feel a lot longer. 

3. No Adele, Beyoncé or Kendrick Performance – It probably should have been a sign that this was not going to be a great night when three of the biggest names in music, with the most nominations, all declined to perform. With Adele, one can argue that it may have been down to logistics, as she was still wrapping up her residency show. But with Kendrick and Beyoncé, the cynic in me almost wonders if it was because they knew exactly how this night would go and did not want to give Grammy producers another chance to use their appearance for ratings, all while they never win the big awards. 

4. Is a Host Necessary – In fairness to Trevor Noah, he wasn’t awful by any means. Certainly not the worse I have seen in terms of award show hosts. However, even while serviceable, I was left with the feeling all night that the show would have lost nothing if there was no host. 
5. Beyoncé Loses AOTY (Again) – *Sigh* Get comfortable, this one is going to be a little long. A few disclaimers before I start. One, I did not hate Harry Styles’ album. I thought it was a perfectly fine pop album. Two, I am not a Beyoncé stan or one of the Beyhive. I like and respect her as an artist, but that’s it. Three, I didn’t initially love Renaissance. It was an album that had to grow on me over several months. That said, her loss for AOTY this past Sunday night was frustrating because of the many layers and nuances of the situation. It is easy to say, “it’s just an award,” and it is. But it also represents a much larger and deeper conversation. The Grammys were first handed out in 1959. In its 63-year history, only 11 black artists have won AOTY – 11, as in the number after 10. Now stop and think about how many legendary, impactful black artists you can list in a minute. And yet, only 11 have won AOTY. And of that 11, only three were women – the last in 1999. So yes, that means it has also been 24 years since a black woman won AOTY. That’s issue number one. But this year’s ceremony also significantly piggy-backed off Beyonce ́ s popularity by regularly promoting that she could become the most-winning artist ever. And that she did. Except for the quiet part that was left unsaid – that only one of those wins was in the big categories. A SOTY win for Single Ladies. So no AOTY awards, ever. But touting this “most winning artist” narrative allowed them to pat themselves on the back and play, “see, we award black artists. She’s won a lot.” And the narrative extended to some Grammy voters, who in an anonymous voter article, declared how she “won all the time.” See how that manipulative psychology works? Play up her breaking a record so once again, many can insist how, “she always wins,” except for how that never seems to extend to the major categories. Mind you, for all the, “she wins all the time,” voters seem to have no such issue regarding Taylor Swift who currently sits at a record-breaking three Album of the Year awards and is very likely, poised to make it a fourth, come next year. That is okay. That is acceptable and deserving, even. But suddenly Beyoncé, “wins too much.” Issue number two. The bottom line is that a white artist can make a good album that is critically well-received and they will win AOTY. See Harry Styles, Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, etc. Yet black artists almost need to be perfect and they STILL don’t win. My friend commented after this year’s show that she’s not sure what else Beyoncé can do. And I warily responded to her that the answer is nothing. Because it’s not that she needs to make an amazing album – she has, multiple times. It’s not that she needs to be culturally relevant and have a musical impact – she has. And repeatedly the voters decided it simply wasn’t good enough – issue number three. And I haven’t even touched on issues regarding the Academy’s attitude towards Hip-Hop/Rap – a genre that is continuously treated as the barely tolerated step-child. It is clear that most recording academy voters, still one, do not understand Hip-Hop/Rap and two, don’t have much respect for the genre. And until they do, we will continue to have situations where Eminem wins an Academy Award for the record-breaking Lose Yourself but loses ROTY for the same song and Kendrick Lamar will win a Pulitzer Prize for his album DAMN. and yet the award that supposedly represents the best of the music industry decides said album is not worthy of Album of the Year.

2023 Oscar Nominations Reaction

The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were announced early Tuesday morning. Overall, the nominations went as expected in most categories. However, as is the case almost every year, there were a few notable absences and shocking surprises. None more so than in the Best Actress category. Keep reading for my breakdown of some of the major categories. 

BEST ACTRESS

Unquestionably the category that drew the biggest gasps and surprise on Tuesday morning. Here are the five women the Academy voted for: 

• Cate Blanchet – Tár 
• Michelle Williams – The Fableman 
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie 
• Ana de Armas – Blonde 

And here are the five women many expected to receive the nomination: 

• Cate Blanchett – Tár
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Viola Davis – The Woman King 
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till 
• Michelle Williams or Ana de Armas – The Fabelmans/Blonde 

In other words, many accepted that the fifth spot was a toss-up but not at the expense of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler. Many considered Michelle Williams and Ana de Armas as tentative. However, I disagreed about Ana de Armas. 

Many allowed their hatred and in some cases, those who didn’t even see the film, the negative public reaction to Blonde, to cloud their judgments. And in doing so, ignored all the glaringly obvious signs that Ana de Armas was more than a tentative possibility to be nominated. 

Because in reality, Ana has consistently shown up across various major Guilds and voting bodies – a strong indicator that an actor will likely be nominated. She received a nomination for the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. Similarly, Viola was also a consistent presence across the various voting bodies. Her not being nominated is shocking. 

However, opposite Viola and Ana’s strong showing throughout the season was Michelle Williams, who missed out on SAG and BAFTA. She was the question mark heading into Tuesday’s announcement and in that vein, was a surprise, though not necessarily shocking, nominee. Because despite missing out on some key awards, Williams was a four-time Oscar nominee (now five-time) in a film that was guaranteed a Best Picture nomination, along with other key categories. Her inclusion was always a strong possibility. 

The real surprise and “upset” in this category was Andrea Riseborough’s nomination. A nomination that’s garnering some controversy, not only because many view it as the “black actresses were booted in favor of another white actress,” but also for how Riseborough appeared to get on voters’ radar. Within the last month or two, a growing groundswell of support from some big names in Hollywood built around the actress’ performance. 

With many of these big names – such as Charlize Theron, Kate Winslet, fellow nominee Cate Blanchett, Edward Norton, and more – promoting support for Riseborough’s performance on social media, organizing Q&A with film media and voters, etc. While some are applauding the move, considering it a potential positive game-changer where a film will no longer need to have a big campaign budget behind it to get an Oscar nomination, others are calling foul. 

The argument is this was a clear case of an elitist group of Hollywood big names essentially trying to manipulate the Academy voting process. And before you scoff, the Academy recently put out a statement declaring their intent to investigate award campaigning guidelines, to confirm whether or not any were broken. They don’t directly mention Riseborough’s nomination, however, we can all read between the lines. It will be very interesting to see, if anything, comes from this. 

BEST ACTOR

The nominees are: 

• Austin Butler – Elvis 
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Brendan Fraser – The Whale 
• Bill Nighy – Living 
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun 

The complete opposite of the Best Actress category, the Best Actor nominees shaped up as many predicted. The fifth spot, as is often the case, was a toss-up, with some still hoping Tom Cruise would get in for Top Gun: Maverick, others predicting a complete outlier like Hugh Jackman for The Son or Jeremy Pope for The Inspector. 

However, in the final weeks before the announcement, most pundits acknowledged that the tide was shifting heavily in Paul Mescal’s favor. So really not a surprise he took the final spot. Fun fact, every actor in the category is a first-time nominee. 

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees are: 

• Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Todd Field – Tár
• Martin McDonaugh – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness 

Once again, nothing too shocking here as the four solid locks expected to get in did. The fifth spot was anyone’s guess. While many predicted Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front or big names like James Cameron and Baz Lurhuman, the fact that Triangle of Sadness got a Best Picture nomination makes Östlund’s nomination less surprising. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

The nominees are:

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
• Hong Chau – The Whale 
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

No surprise in this category. The only question mark going into Tuesday’s nomination announcement was whether or not both actresses from Everything Everywhere All At Once would be nominated. Specifically, would Stephanie Hsu be left off the list, in favor of Dolly DeLeon for her amazing performance in Triangle of Sadness? But as we saw with their leading 11 nominations, Academy voters were feeling the Everything Everywhere love. And that extended to celebrating both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu’s performances. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

The nominees are: 

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsh – The Fabelmans 
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

This category was a bit more wide open than the other acting categories. Perhaps the only solid locks for a nomination were Ke Huy Quan (who is likely going to win) and Brendan Gleeson. As such, there was no real shocking surprise in the list of nominees. 

Perhaps the most surprising nomination was Brian Tyree Henry’s, as he’d missed out on many of the precursors – no Globe, SAG, or BAFTA nomination. However, his performance in Causeway is critically lauded and was one of the most talked about performances in the early days of Award season. 

It was also a toss-up whether Judd Hirsh or Paul Dano would get in, both for The Fablemans. Dano had the more visible role in the film, while Hirsh, whose presence was minimal, had a “big moment” scene. Not to mention he’s a well-respected, legendary actor. So not a total surprise the voters went in his favor. 

BEST PICTURE 

The nominees are:

• All Quiet on the Western Front 
• Avatar: The Way of Water 
• The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• The Fabelmans 
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick 
• Triangle of Sadness 
• Women Talking 

No big surprises, other than Women Talking getting nominated. Based on the few nominations it received overall throughout the Awards Season, some speculated that the film was unlikely to get a Best Picture nomination. Triangle of Sadness is also somewhat of a surprise. However, with its showing up in some big categories, like Best Director, it’s clear that the voters loved the film. 

As to who and what will ultimately win, hard to say. Other than a few categories, I would say let’s wait and see what happens at SAG and BAFTA. The two are likely to tell the tale. 

2023 Golden Globes Predictions

Image Courtesy Google Images

The Golden Globes are officially back, albeit with an odd Tuesday airdate. The ceremony once dubbed the “biggest party in Hollywood,” is back on air after two years mired in controversy that saw NBC choosing not to air it in 2022. There’s still a huge question mark on whether or not all is forgiven or if a significant segment of the industry remains wary of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). 

It was hard to miss that unlike previous years and compared to other award shows, many of the nominees barely reacted to their nominations. Jerrod Carmichael is this year’s host, a decision that I’m sure some view as a bit of “pandering,” as much of the HFPA’s controversy is intermingled with racial discrimination by the organization. 

Full disclosure, I’m excited to have the ceremony back. I’ve made no secret that the Globes were consistently one of my favorite award show ceremonies. And while I am not dismissing the problematic aspects of the HFPA, as I stated in my blog post addressing the controversy, I believe that much of Hollywood’s reaction to the controversy has been a bit performative. 

That said, with the show back on the air, it’s time for me to make some predictions, half of which will probably be wrong. Because predicting how the HFPA will vote is always a crapshoot, which is half the fun. 

Best Motion Picture, Drama

• Avatar: The Way of Water 
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans 
• Tár 
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – Right off the bat, I’m going to hedge my bets and pick two options. I think the winner will likely be Avatar or Elvis. HFPA loves films like Elvis and are more receptive to Baz Luhrmann’s aesthetic, more so than perhaps the Oscars might be. That said, I also think a big-budget, extravagant production like Avatar is also right up their alley. So my money is on one of these two to take it. 

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
• Triangle of Sadness

Will Win – A few months ago, I would have said this is a lock for The Banshees of Inisherin. However, Babylon appears to have picked up some serious momentum in recent weeks and of course Everything Everywhere All at Once has topped almost every critic’s list in the last year. Still, I’m putting my money on The Banshees of Inisherin to win. 

Best Director, Motion Picture

• James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”) 
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) 
• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Will Win – Another category where I’m going to hedge my bets. A small voice in my head says that the HFPA voters will be swayed by the grandiosity of Avatar and reward James Cameron for pulling it all together. Another little voice however, says they will not be able to resist rewarding a legend like Steven Spielberg for a project that is so deeply personal to him. 

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

• Tár — Todd Field 
• Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert 
• The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh 
• Women Talking — Sarah Polley 
• The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner

Will Win – This category is always a total crapshoot, only because, unlike the other major award shows, Globes do not make a distinction between Original and Adapted Screenplay. A distinction that can often skew the final results. However, since I have to make a prediction, I’m going to say The Banshees of Inisherin will win for a screenplay that is quirky, offbeat, and overall, fun. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”) 
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) 
• Hugh Jackman (“The Son”)
• Bill Nighy (“Living”) 
• Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection”)

Will Win – Let me first say that I still believe the Academy Award will come down to Brendan Fraser versus Colin Farrell. That said, I think Austin Butler is going to take this one. Once again, it’s the type of role that HFPA voters love – think Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody and Taron Edgerton in Rocketman. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
• Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”) 
• Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) 
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)  

Will Win – Queen Blanchett will begin her likely run toward a third Oscar. With her toughest challenger, Michelle Yeoh, competing in Comedy or Musical, this is a slam dunk for Cate. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Lesley Manville (“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”) 
• Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) 
• Anya Taylor-Joy (“The Menu”) 
• Emma Thompson (“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”) 
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Will Win – As noted above, with Michelle Yeoh the only one to conceivably pose a real threat to Cate Blanchett’s winning the Oscar for Best Actress, it’s hard to bet against her in this category. A potential spoiler could be Margot Robbie, depending on how big the love for Babylon is. However, I believe this is Yeoh’s to lose. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Diego Calva (“Babylon”) 
• Daniel Craig (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
• Adam Driver (“White Noise”) 
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Ralph Fiennes (“The Menu”) 

Will Win – In recent weeks, Colin Farrell has emerged as a heavy favorite to win Best Actor, come Oscar Sunday. We’ll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition, but right now, I’ll say he’s a definite lock to win this category. 

Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brad Pitt (“Babylon”)
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”)

Will Win – There’s always a concern about the possibility of splitting votes when two actors from the same film are in a category. I don’t think this will be an issue for Brendan Gleeson, who is still a heavy Oscar favorite. That said, I believe this category may come down to which film the HFPA voters love more – Everything Everywhere All at Once or The Banshees of Inisherin. I know Ke Huy Quan is the oddsmaker’s favorite to win the Oscar, but I think Brendan Gleeson, a legendary actor, will ultimately prevail here. 

Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”)
• Carey Mulligan (“She Said”)

Will Win – There were some surprising snubs in this category, namely Claire Foy for Women Talking and Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. With those omissions, it is hard to bet against Kerry Condon, a consistent presence in the Supporting Actress race. 

Best Television Series, Drama

• Better Call Saul
• The Crown
• House of the Dragon
• Ozark
• Severance 

Will Win – I always say that HFPA loves quirky, and fresh new shows, which would suggest that Severance is the likely winner. That said, the voters also love big productions, which fall right in the House of the Dragon’s wheelhouse. So which one will it be? My guess; the House of the Dragon will emerge victorious. 

Best Television Series, Musical or Comedy

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Only Murders in the Building
• Wednesday

Will Win – About that whole thing of HFPA voters loving fresh, offbeat, and quirky shows – look for The Bear to pull out the win in this category. That said, I wouldn’t be too shocked by a surprise win in Wednesday’s favor. Because once again, it’s the kind of move that’s right up the HFPA alley. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama

• Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) 
• Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”)
• Diego Luna (“Andor”)
• Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
• Adam Scott (“Severance”)

Will Win – This is an intriguing category. Although I think House of the Dragon will win Best Drama, interestingly, none of the actors from the show were nominated. Yellowstone has been an underrated cult favorite that finally seems to be getting its due. All that said, I think this may come down to Jeff Bridges or Adam Scott. Bridges because he’s a legendary, well-respected actor in a little-watched yet critically acclaimed show, and Scott for being in the aforementioned fresh and quirky new show. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama

• Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) 
• Laura Linney (“Ozark”) 
• Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”)
• Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”)
• Zendaya (“Euphoria”)

Will Win – Zendaya has been on a winning streak for her performance in Euphoria and that is unlikely to change on Tuesday night.

Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

• Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) 
• Kaley Cuoco (“The Flight Attendant”) 
• Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
• Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”) 
• Jean Smart (“Hacks”) 

Will Win – I’m sure you’re all sick of me saying it, but once again, HFPA loves to reward new fresh faces. While this category will consistently be a fight between Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson at all other big award shows, look for Jenna Ortega to pull off the big upset on January 10. 

Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

• Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) 
• Bill Hader (“Barry”) 
• Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
• Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
• Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) 

Will Win – There are some big names and heavy hitters in this category. However, the winner will be the underdog, Jeremy Allen White. Like Jenna Ortega, HFPA voters will reward the fresh face (well fresh relative to the other actors who’ve all been in this category before) from the new breakout show. 

Best Supporting Actor, Television

• John Lithgow (“The Old Man”) 
• Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”) 
• John Turturro (“Severance”) 
• Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) 
• Henry Winkler (“Barry”)

Will Win – Lithgow is always a formidable force in any category, so look for him to be the heavy favorite. My guess is this will come down to either him or John Turturro. 

Best Supporting Actress, Television

• Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) 
• Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) 
• Julia Garner (“Ozark”) 
• Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”) 
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”) 

Will Win – Personally my vote in this category would go to Janelle James for her always hilarious portrayal of Principal Ava Coleman on Abbott Elementary. That said, I believe this will be an Ozark vs. Hacks battle, with the winner either Hannah Einbinder or Julia Garner. 

Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

• Black Bird
• Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
• The Dropout
• Pam & Tommy
• The White Lotus

Will Win – It’s interesting seeing some of these nominees next to newer, more recent shows. At this point, it almost feels like Pam & Tommy came out two years ago. As lauded as The White Lotus has been, I believe Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story will steal its thunder. One, because it was a popular and hotly-debated limited series, and two, both of Ryan Murphy’s previous limited series in this vein were rewarded by the Globes – The People vs. OJ Simpson and The Assassination of Gianni Versace.  

Best Performance by an Actor, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”) 
• Colin Firth (“The Staircase”) 
• Andrew Garfield (“Under the Banner of Heaven”) 
• Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
• Sebastian Stan (“Pam & Tommy”) 

Will Win – Whatever one’s personal feelings about the show, no one could deny the career-defining performance Evan Peters delivered in Monster. He will be rewarded for it. 

Best Performance by an Actress, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”) 
• Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”) 
• Lily James (“Pam & Tommy”) 
• Julia Roberts (“Gaslit”) 
• Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”) 

Will Win – There are certainly some big names in this category. However, I believe HFPA voters will stay the course on this one and give Amanda Seyfried another award to add to her growing trophy cabinet. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”) 
• Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) 
• Daisy Edgar-Jones (“Under the Banner of Heaven”) 
• Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
• Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus”) 

Will Win – Though not the lead, Niecy Nash-Betts, like Evan Peters, delivered what is to this point, the performance of her career in Monster. She is my favorite to win but depending on how much HFPA is feeling The White Lotus love, Jennifer Coolidge has a strong chance of repeating her Emmy glory. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”) 
• Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”) 
• Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) 
• Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
• Seth Rogen (“Pam & Tommy”) 

Will Win – This one is a big toss-up for me so I’m going to go with my gut and say Richard Jenkins will win, assuming HFPA voters aren’t as enamored as the Television Academy was by White Lotus. In which case, then F. Murray Abraham will win.

Best Original Score, Motion Picture

• The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Alexandre Desplat 
• Women Talking — Hildur Guðnadóttir 
• Babylon — Justin Hurwitz 
• The Fabelmans — John Williams  

Will Win – The Fablemans is the type of film that fits perfectly with a classic John Williams score. And come Tuesday night, it will very likely win.  

Best Picture, Non-English Language

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) 
• Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) 
• Close (Belgium) 
• Decision to Leave (South Korea) 
• RRR (India) 

Will Win – With no clear favorite this year, a la Roma or Parasite a few years ago, this can go many ways. However, RRR is the only nominee that shows up in another category (Original Song), and for that, I’ll go with it as the likely winner. 

Best Original Song, Motion Picture

• “Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing” — Taylor Swift 
• “Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” — Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro 
• “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” — Lady Gaga, BloodPop, Benjamin Rice
• “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” — Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler 
• “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj 

Will Win – While it seems like the entire world is currently obsessed with all things Taylor Swift, HFPA has shown that they love Lady Gaga. With the massive success of Top Gun, I see this as the surefire category to show the movie some love. That and also, Hold My Hand is just a freaking awesome song. 

Best Motion Picture, Animated

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
• Inu-Oh
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 
• Turning Red

Will Win – Hard to bet against a uniquely constructed film from an Oscar-winning legendary director. Pinnochio is the obvious winner here.