2023 Academy Awards Predictions

We made it. After months and months of predictions on who and what films would be nominated, with a few controversies along the way (hello Andrea Riseborough), to predictions on what films and actors will win, we’re finally at Oscar week. And in just a few days, all will be revealed. 

Will it be an Everything Everywhere All At Once sweep? Will Cate Blanchett win her third Oscar or will Michelle Yeoh make history as the first Asian woman to win Lead Actress? And will it be Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser or neither for Lead Actor? I have a few thoughts. Here are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. 

BEST PICTURE 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Will Win – Pack it up, it’s a done deal. Everything Everywhere All At Once will win. Yes, we’ve seen instances, no matter how rare, of the Producer’s Guild Award (PGA) winner not winning Best Picture – see 1917 losing to Parasite after winning PGA. But in all these years, there was a solid number two or three to the frontrunner film or a strong two-horse race. See CODA versus The Power of the Dog last year. Not the case this year. No film has solidly risen to challenge Everything Everywhere’s dominance. Hard to see them losing at the finish line. 

Could Win – Honestly couldn’t tell you. I guess there is a fantasy world where Top Gun: Maverick pulls out the come-from-behind storybook win or perhaps BAFTA may prove prophetic for Best Picture and All Quiet on the Western Front could win. My favorite upset would be The Banshees of Inisherin pulling out the stunning upset but yeah, don’t see it happening. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Todd Field (“Tár”) 
• Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Will Win – Much like the PGA win, hard to bet against The Daniels after the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) win. Plus BAFTA proved irrelevant for this category, as they awarded Edward Berger the win, who is, of course, not nominated. 

Could Win – It seems hard to imagine that with The Fabelmans losing so much steam, Spielberg could pull off this win. Plus, you would think if he had any real shot in this category, DGA at least would have gone his way. I think the real possible upset in this category is Todd Field. There appears to be a lot of low-key passion for Tár by the Academy. 

BEST LEAD ACTOR 

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”) 
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) 
• Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) 
• Bill Nighy (“Living”) 

Will Win – This one has certainly shaped up to be quite an interesting race. When award season began, many pundits were certain that this was going to be another season sweep, a la Will Smith last year, for Brendan Fraser. Not so much. Instead, the kid who started on Nickelodeon came in and shook things up. And now it’s seemingly a dead heat between Fraser and Austin Butler. So which one is taking it? Well, I’m going to go with the gut, and stats on this one and say, Austin Butler. The stats – BAFTA has correctly predicted the last eight Best Actor Oscar winners including two where someone else won SAG – Casey Affleck over Denzel Washington and Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman. Austin won BAFTA and Fraser won SAG. And the last time a lead actor won without their film being nominated for Best Picture was in 2009. The Whale is not nominated for Best Picture but Elvis is.

Could Win – There may be more members of the Academy moved by the narrative than I suspect and so Brendan Fraser’s apparent comeback narrative may be enough to take the win. I hope not because lovely as I think Brendan Fraser seems, I hated The Whale. 

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
• Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win – I have believed Cate Blanchett will win her third Oscar for months and my mind has not changed. Yes, I’ve read all the arguments about Michelle Yeoh’s amazing narrative – first-time nominee in a long and respected career, best chance and possibly only chance to win a Lead Actress Oscar, would be history-making, etc. And still, I cannot shake the feeling that when it’s all said and done, a larger share of the Academy will ignore all the narrative and pick a woman whose talent they deeply respect, in a film they also appreciated a lot based on its nominations, and for a performance many believe is her greatest yet. 

Could Win – Michelle Yeoh, of course. And yes, for all the narrative reasons I noted above, as well as her possibly riding the Everything Everywhere momentum wave. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”) 
• Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Will Win – Blessedly a fairly straightforward acting category. Ke Huy Quan is a lock to win this category. 

Could Win – I guess there is the possibility that a significant number of Academy members really love The Banshees of Inisherin and so Barry Keoghan’s upset win at BAFTA repeats at the Oscars. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
• Hong Chau (“The Whale”) 
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win – I feel like any of these five women’s names could be called on Sunday night and I would not be the least bit surprised. That’s how wide open this is. However, if I go with head and stats, I think Kerry Condon will win. Typically when the Supporting races are as wide open as this, the BAFTA winner tends to prevail, and Condon won a lot of pre-season critics’ awards. So her win would hardly be considered an upset. 

Could Win – Heart says, Angela Bassett. And I genuinely hope the heart wins out. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

• All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
• Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Will Win – With Women Talking getting a surprise Best Picture nomination, followed by the film winning Adapted Screenplay at this year’s Writers’ Guild Awards (WGA), seems the safe bet to predict Sarah Polley will win the Oscar. 

Could Win – I understand the buzz around a potential win for All Quiet on the Western Front based on the fact that it is an adaptation of a beloved novel and the film overall has a lot of Academy love based on all the nominations it received. However, I can’t shake the feeling that if anyone but Sarah Polley wins here, it will be Kazuo Ishiguro for Living. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• Tár,” Written by Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund

Will Win – Hard to bet against Everything Everywhere All at Once, when so much of the love for the film is its original concept. Of course that’s less the actual script and more the overall story, but I suspect voters won’t make that distinction. And of course, it swept almost all the Guilds including yes, winning Original Screenplay at WGA.

Could Win – Personally, if I were a voting member of the Academy, my pick would be The Banshees of Inisherin and I do think it has the best chance of all the other nominees to possibly upset Everything Everywhere here. Aside from genuinely loving the film and its script, I would also just like to see Martin McDonagh win something on Oscar night. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
• Elvis,” Mandy Walker
• Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
• Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win – So a few weeks ago I would have said I’m locked in on All Quiet on the Western Front winning this category and I’m not changing my mind. Well, I was wrong and have indeed changed my mind. I now believe Elvis is going to win, which would be particularly awesome, as Mandy Walker, the cinematographer, would make history as the first woman to ever win in this category. 

Could Win – All that said, the reason I initially believe All Quiet was a lock is that the Academy’s love for war films in this category is a very real thing. Of course, since 1917 won barely a few years ago, it does feel a bit like, “been there, done that.” 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny

Will Win – Navalny has all the momentum and significant guild wins in its corner right now. Hard to bet against it. 

Could Win – There is a lot of passion for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, so an upset is possible. 

BEST FILM EDITING 

• The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers
• Tár,” Monika Willi
• Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton

Will Win – As with most categories they’re nominated in, the safe bet here is Everything Everywhere, especially when you consider it is a film about traveling through multi-universes. 

Could Win – It could not have been easy editing all those flight sequences to make them look seamless, and for that and other reasons, I think Top Gun: Maverick has the best chance to upset here.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) 
• Argentina, 1985” (Argentina) 
• Close” (Belgium)
• EO” (Poland) 
• The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) 

Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front. I cannot think of an international film nominee that also got a Best Picture nomination and didn’t win this category. It’s done. 

Could Win – On the slight chance that complete madness ensues on Oscar night, there could be a potential upset by Argentina, 1985, which did win the Golden Globe. But yeah, not happening. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose  
• This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne 

Will Win – Naatu Naatu seems the obvious choice here, having won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice. It’s also probably the most “original” of all the nominees. That said, considering this is the film’s single nomination despite having strong buzz early in award season, perhaps Academy voters may not love the film that much. 

Could Win – Personally, if I was a member of the Academy, my vote would go to Hold My Hand. I thought Lady Gaga perfectly captured the 80’s big-ballad vibe of the original film’s big song – Take My Breath Away – but managed to still make her version sound modern and current. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

Will Win – Babylon has been sweeping this category at most precursor awards, so I’ll play it safe and predict they’re winning the ultimate prize. 

Could Win – How much love does the Academy have for Elvis? The answer to that question may result in its pulling the upset. Well, that and their love for the legendary Catherine Martin who won this category years ago for another Baz Luhrmann film – The Great Gatsby. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – Avatar, period. 

Could Win – No one. Avatar will win. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Will Win – Pinocchio has been one of the few locks all season long. That will hold up on Oscar night. 

Could Win – There is a lot of love for Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, so it could upset but I don’t see it happening. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Babylon,” Mary Zophres
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter
• Elvis,” Catherine Martin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan

Will Win – Catherine Martin could win two Oscars on Sunday because Elvis is very likely taking this one. 

Could Win – Depending on how obsessed Academy voters are with Everything Everywhere there is potential for it to upset here but very unlikely. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

Will Win – Many believe this category may well determine the Best Actor race. If voters were more impressed with the 600-pound transformation of Brendan Fraser in The Whale then he wins Best Actor. But if they’re more impressed by Austin Butler’s transformation from young Elvis to aging, bloated Elvis, then Austin wins. Lucky then I picked Austin Butler to win Best Actor because I believe Elvis is winning this category. 

Could Win – Many would say The Whale but what the hell, for some chaos, I’d say The Batman could pull a surprise win here. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

Will Win – There isn’t a solid lock in this category. Some weeks ago, I would have said Justin Hurwitz winning was a sure thing. But based on the Academy’s overall lukewarm response to Babylon, that’s no longer a given. All that said, I’m still not ready to write off Hurwitz. So Babylon it is. 

Could Win – Because this category isn’t a lock, there are many potential upsets but if I had to pick one, I’d say All Quiet on the Western Front. Unless the Academy decides to honor John Williams less for The Fabelmans and more for his stellar career. 

BEST SOUND

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – I feel certain that this is Top Gun: Maverick’s best chance for an Oscar win. So Top Gun: Maverick it is. That and also the sound was amazing, which makes the film more than deserving.

Could Win – War-themed movies tend to do well in this category so I have to concede the possibility of All Quiet on the Western Front winning. 

2023 Oscar Nominations Reaction

The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were announced early Tuesday morning. Overall, the nominations went as expected in most categories. However, as is the case almost every year, there were a few notable absences and shocking surprises. None more so than in the Best Actress category. Keep reading for my breakdown of some of the major categories. 

BEST ACTRESS

Unquestionably the category that drew the biggest gasps and surprise on Tuesday morning. Here are the five women the Academy voted for: 

• Cate Blanchet – Tár 
• Michelle Williams – The Fableman 
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie 
• Ana de Armas – Blonde 

And here are the five women many expected to receive the nomination: 

• Cate Blanchett – Tár
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Viola Davis – The Woman King 
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till 
• Michelle Williams or Ana de Armas – The Fabelmans/Blonde 

In other words, many accepted that the fifth spot was a toss-up but not at the expense of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler. Many considered Michelle Williams and Ana de Armas as tentative. However, I disagreed about Ana de Armas. 

Many allowed their hatred and in some cases, those who didn’t even see the film, the negative public reaction to Blonde, to cloud their judgments. And in doing so, ignored all the glaringly obvious signs that Ana de Armas was more than a tentative possibility to be nominated. 

Because in reality, Ana has consistently shown up across various major Guilds and voting bodies – a strong indicator that an actor will likely be nominated. She received a nomination for the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. Similarly, Viola was also a consistent presence across the various voting bodies. Her not being nominated is shocking. 

However, opposite Viola and Ana’s strong showing throughout the season was Michelle Williams, who missed out on SAG and BAFTA. She was the question mark heading into Tuesday’s announcement and in that vein, was a surprise, though not necessarily shocking, nominee. Because despite missing out on some key awards, Williams was a four-time Oscar nominee (now five-time) in a film that was guaranteed a Best Picture nomination, along with other key categories. Her inclusion was always a strong possibility. 

The real surprise and “upset” in this category was Andrea Riseborough’s nomination. A nomination that’s garnering some controversy, not only because many view it as the “black actresses were booted in favor of another white actress,” but also for how Riseborough appeared to get on voters’ radar. Within the last month or two, a growing groundswell of support from some big names in Hollywood built around the actress’ performance. 

With many of these big names – such as Charlize Theron, Kate Winslet, fellow nominee Cate Blanchett, Edward Norton, and more – promoting support for Riseborough’s performance on social media, organizing Q&A with film media and voters, etc. While some are applauding the move, considering it a potential positive game-changer where a film will no longer need to have a big campaign budget behind it to get an Oscar nomination, others are calling foul. 

The argument is this was a clear case of an elitist group of Hollywood big names essentially trying to manipulate the Academy voting process. And before you scoff, the Academy recently put out a statement declaring their intent to investigate award campaigning guidelines, to confirm whether or not any were broken. They don’t directly mention Riseborough’s nomination, however, we can all read between the lines. It will be very interesting to see, if anything, comes from this. 

BEST ACTOR

The nominees are: 

• Austin Butler – Elvis 
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Brendan Fraser – The Whale 
• Bill Nighy – Living 
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun 

The complete opposite of the Best Actress category, the Best Actor nominees shaped up as many predicted. The fifth spot, as is often the case, was a toss-up, with some still hoping Tom Cruise would get in for Top Gun: Maverick, others predicting a complete outlier like Hugh Jackman for The Son or Jeremy Pope for The Inspector. 

However, in the final weeks before the announcement, most pundits acknowledged that the tide was shifting heavily in Paul Mescal’s favor. So really not a surprise he took the final spot. Fun fact, every actor in the category is a first-time nominee. 

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees are: 

• Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Todd Field – Tár
• Martin McDonaugh – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness 

Once again, nothing too shocking here as the four solid locks expected to get in did. The fifth spot was anyone’s guess. While many predicted Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front or big names like James Cameron and Baz Lurhuman, the fact that Triangle of Sadness got a Best Picture nomination makes Östlund’s nomination less surprising. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

The nominees are:

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
• Hong Chau – The Whale 
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

No surprise in this category. The only question mark going into Tuesday’s nomination announcement was whether or not both actresses from Everything Everywhere All At Once would be nominated. Specifically, would Stephanie Hsu be left off the list, in favor of Dolly DeLeon for her amazing performance in Triangle of Sadness? But as we saw with their leading 11 nominations, Academy voters were feeling the Everything Everywhere love. And that extended to celebrating both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu’s performances. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

The nominees are: 

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsh – The Fabelmans 
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

This category was a bit more wide open than the other acting categories. Perhaps the only solid locks for a nomination were Ke Huy Quan (who is likely going to win) and Brendan Gleeson. As such, there was no real shocking surprise in the list of nominees. 

Perhaps the most surprising nomination was Brian Tyree Henry’s, as he’d missed out on many of the precursors – no Globe, SAG, or BAFTA nomination. However, his performance in Causeway is critically lauded and was one of the most talked about performances in the early days of Award season. 

It was also a toss-up whether Judd Hirsh or Paul Dano would get in, both for The Fablemans. Dano had the more visible role in the film, while Hirsh, whose presence was minimal, had a “big moment” scene. Not to mention he’s a well-respected, legendary actor. So not a total surprise the voters went in his favor. 

BEST PICTURE 

The nominees are:

• All Quiet on the Western Front 
• Avatar: The Way of Water 
• The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• The Fabelmans 
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick 
• Triangle of Sadness 
• Women Talking 

No big surprises, other than Women Talking getting nominated. Based on the few nominations it received overall throughout the Awards Season, some speculated that the film was unlikely to get a Best Picture nomination. Triangle of Sadness is also somewhat of a surprise. However, with its showing up in some big categories, like Best Director, it’s clear that the voters loved the film. 

As to who and what will ultimately win, hard to say. Other than a few categories, I would say let’s wait and see what happens at SAG and BAFTA. The two are likely to tell the tale.