2023 Academy Awards Predictions

We made it. After months and months of predictions on who and what films would be nominated, with a few controversies along the way (hello Andrea Riseborough), to predictions on what films and actors will win, we’re finally at Oscar week. And in just a few days, all will be revealed. 

Will it be an Everything Everywhere All At Once sweep? Will Cate Blanchett win her third Oscar or will Michelle Yeoh make history as the first Asian woman to win Lead Actress? And will it be Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser or neither for Lead Actor? I have a few thoughts. Here are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. 

BEST PICTURE 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Will Win – Pack it up, it’s a done deal. Everything Everywhere All At Once will win. Yes, we’ve seen instances, no matter how rare, of the Producer’s Guild Award (PGA) winner not winning Best Picture – see 1917 losing to Parasite after winning PGA. But in all these years, there was a solid number two or three to the frontrunner film or a strong two-horse race. See CODA versus The Power of the Dog last year. Not the case this year. No film has solidly risen to challenge Everything Everywhere’s dominance. Hard to see them losing at the finish line. 

Could Win – Honestly couldn’t tell you. I guess there is a fantasy world where Top Gun: Maverick pulls out the come-from-behind storybook win or perhaps BAFTA may prove prophetic for Best Picture and All Quiet on the Western Front could win. My favorite upset would be The Banshees of Inisherin pulling out the stunning upset but yeah, don’t see it happening. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Todd Field (“Tár”) 
• Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Will Win – Much like the PGA win, hard to bet against The Daniels after the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) win. Plus BAFTA proved irrelevant for this category, as they awarded Edward Berger the win, who is, of course, not nominated. 

Could Win – It seems hard to imagine that with The Fabelmans losing so much steam, Spielberg could pull off this win. Plus, you would think if he had any real shot in this category, DGA at least would have gone his way. I think the real possible upset in this category is Todd Field. There appears to be a lot of low-key passion for Tár by the Academy. 

BEST LEAD ACTOR 

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”) 
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) 
• Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) 
• Bill Nighy (“Living”) 

Will Win – This one has certainly shaped up to be quite an interesting race. When award season began, many pundits were certain that this was going to be another season sweep, a la Will Smith last year, for Brendan Fraser. Not so much. Instead, the kid who started on Nickelodeon came in and shook things up. And now it’s seemingly a dead heat between Fraser and Austin Butler. So which one is taking it? Well, I’m going to go with the gut, and stats on this one and say, Austin Butler. The stats – BAFTA has correctly predicted the last eight Best Actor Oscar winners including two where someone else won SAG – Casey Affleck over Denzel Washington and Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman. Austin won BAFTA and Fraser won SAG. And the last time a lead actor won without their film being nominated for Best Picture was in 2009. The Whale is not nominated for Best Picture but Elvis is.

Could Win – There may be more members of the Academy moved by the narrative than I suspect and so Brendan Fraser’s apparent comeback narrative may be enough to take the win. I hope not because lovely as I think Brendan Fraser seems, I hated The Whale. 

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
• Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) 
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win – I have believed Cate Blanchett will win her third Oscar for months and my mind has not changed. Yes, I’ve read all the arguments about Michelle Yeoh’s amazing narrative – first-time nominee in a long and respected career, best chance and possibly only chance to win a Lead Actress Oscar, would be history-making, etc. And still, I cannot shake the feeling that when it’s all said and done, a larger share of the Academy will ignore all the narrative and pick a woman whose talent they deeply respect, in a film they also appreciated a lot based on its nominations, and for a performance many believe is her greatest yet. 

Could Win – Michelle Yeoh, of course. And yes, for all the narrative reasons I noted above, as well as her possibly riding the Everything Everywhere momentum wave. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”) 
• Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Will Win – Blessedly a fairly straightforward acting category. Ke Huy Quan is a lock to win this category. 

Could Win – I guess there is the possibility that a significant number of Academy members really love The Banshees of Inisherin and so Barry Keoghan’s upset win at BAFTA repeats at the Oscars. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
• Hong Chau (“The Whale”) 
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Will Win – I feel like any of these five women’s names could be called on Sunday night and I would not be the least bit surprised. That’s how wide open this is. However, if I go with head and stats, I think Kerry Condon will win. Typically when the Supporting races are as wide open as this, the BAFTA winner tends to prevail, and Condon won a lot of pre-season critics’ awards. So her win would hardly be considered an upset. 

Could Win – Heart says, Angela Bassett. And I genuinely hope the heart wins out. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

• All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
• Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
• Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Will Win – With Women Talking getting a surprise Best Picture nomination, followed by the film winning Adapted Screenplay at this year’s Writers’ Guild Awards (WGA), seems the safe bet to predict Sarah Polley will win the Oscar. 

Could Win – I understand the buzz around a potential win for All Quiet on the Western Front based on the fact that it is an adaptation of a beloved novel and the film overall has a lot of Academy love based on all the nominations it received. However, I can’t shake the feeling that if anyone but Sarah Polley wins here, it will be Kazuo Ishiguro for Living. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
• Tár,” Written by Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund

Will Win – Hard to bet against Everything Everywhere All at Once, when so much of the love for the film is its original concept. Of course that’s less the actual script and more the overall story, but I suspect voters won’t make that distinction. And of course, it swept almost all the Guilds including yes, winning Original Screenplay at WGA.

Could Win – Personally, if I were a voting member of the Academy, my pick would be The Banshees of Inisherin and I do think it has the best chance of all the other nominees to possibly upset Everything Everywhere here. Aside from genuinely loving the film and its script, I would also just like to see Martin McDonagh win something on Oscar night. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend
• Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
• Elvis,” Mandy Walker
• Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
• Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win – So a few weeks ago I would have said I’m locked in on All Quiet on the Western Front winning this category and I’m not changing my mind. Well, I was wrong and have indeed changed my mind. I now believe Elvis is going to win, which would be particularly awesome, as Mandy Walker, the cinematographer, would make history as the first woman to ever win in this category. 

Could Win – All that said, the reason I initially believe All Quiet was a lock is that the Academy’s love for war films in this category is a very real thing. Of course, since 1917 won barely a few years ago, it does feel a bit like, “been there, done that.” 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny

Will Win – Navalny has all the momentum and significant guild wins in its corner right now. Hard to bet against it. 

Could Win – There is a lot of passion for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, so an upset is possible. 

BEST FILM EDITING 

• The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers
• Tár,” Monika Willi
• Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton

Will Win – As with most categories they’re nominated in, the safe bet here is Everything Everywhere, especially when you consider it is a film about traveling through multi-universes. 

Could Win – It could not have been easy editing all those flight sequences to make them look seamless, and for that and other reasons, I think Top Gun: Maverick has the best chance to upset here.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) 
• Argentina, 1985” (Argentina) 
• Close” (Belgium)
• EO” (Poland) 
• The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) 

Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front. I cannot think of an international film nominee that also got a Best Picture nomination and didn’t win this category. It’s done. 

Could Win – On the slight chance that complete madness ensues on Oscar night, there could be a potential upset by Argentina, 1985, which did win the Golden Globe. But yeah, not happening. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose  
• This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne 

Will Win – Naatu Naatu seems the obvious choice here, having won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice. It’s also probably the most “original” of all the nominees. That said, considering this is the film’s single nomination despite having strong buzz early in award season, perhaps Academy voters may not love the film that much. 

Could Win – Personally, if I was a member of the Academy, my vote would go to Hold My Hand. I thought Lady Gaga perfectly captured the 80’s big-ballad vibe of the original film’s big song – Take My Breath Away – but managed to still make her version sound modern and current. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• Babylon
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans

Will Win – Babylon has been sweeping this category at most precursor awards, so I’ll play it safe and predict they’re winning the ultimate prize. 

Could Win – How much love does the Academy have for Elvis? The answer to that question may result in its pulling the upset. Well, that and their love for the legendary Catherine Martin who won this category years ago for another Baz Luhrmann film – The Great Gatsby. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – Avatar, period. 

Could Win – No one. Avatar will win. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

Will Win – Pinocchio has been one of the few locks all season long. That will hold up on Oscar night. 

Could Win – There is a lot of love for Marcel the Shell With Shoes On, so it could upset but I don’t see it happening. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Babylon,” Mary Zophres
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter
• Elvis,” Catherine Martin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
• Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan

Will Win – Catherine Martin could win two Oscars on Sunday because Elvis is very likely taking this one. 

Could Win – Depending on how obsessed Academy voters are with Everything Everywhere there is potential for it to upset here but very unlikely. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Elvis
• The Whale

Will Win – Many believe this category may well determine the Best Actor race. If voters were more impressed with the 600-pound transformation of Brendan Fraser in The Whale then he wins Best Actor. But if they’re more impressed by Austin Butler’s transformation from young Elvis to aging, bloated Elvis, then Austin wins. Lucky then I picked Austin Butler to win Best Actor because I believe Elvis is winning this category. 

Could Win – Many would say The Whale but what the hell, for some chaos, I’d say The Batman could pull a surprise win here. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans

Will Win – There isn’t a solid lock in this category. Some weeks ago, I would have said Justin Hurwitz winning was a sure thing. But based on the Academy’s overall lukewarm response to Babylon, that’s no longer a given. All that said, I’m still not ready to write off Hurwitz. So Babylon it is. 

Could Win – Because this category isn’t a lock, there are many potential upsets but if I had to pick one, I’d say All Quiet on the Western Front. Unless the Academy decides to honor John Williams less for The Fabelmans and more for his stellar career. 

BEST SOUND

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – I feel certain that this is Top Gun: Maverick’s best chance for an Oscar win. So Top Gun: Maverick it is. That and also the sound was amazing, which makes the film more than deserving.

Could Win – War-themed movies tend to do well in this category so I have to concede the possibility of All Quiet on the Western Front winning. 

2023 SAG Awards Predictions

It is the final big one before the BIG ONE – aka, the Oscars. The Screen Actors Guild is ready to hand out their awards for the best film and television acting performances of 2022. 

Unlike some previous years where many of the film acting categories were locked by this point, that is not the case this year, making this year’s ceremony much more intriguing. One thing is certain, by the end of tomorrow night’s ceremony, we will have a much clearer picture of who is likely to take home Oscar gold on March 12. Here are my predictions for this year’s SAG awards. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• Steve Carrell (The Patient)
• Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
• Sam Elliott (1883)
• Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
• Evan Peters (Dahmer)

Will Win – Evan Peters. Yes, there was controversy around the miniseries. However, what was never in dispute was Peters’ chillingly masterful performance. Not to mention that despite the controversy the streaming numbers for Monster were incredible. Before Wednesday debuted, it was the most-watched series on Netflix for 2022. 

Could Win – SAG has this annoying aspect where it does not include supporting categories. As a result, you will often find actors who have swept supporting categories at the Emmys or Golden Globes, competing in Lead at SAG, which is the case here for Paul Hauser. He has been on a roll these past two months, winning the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice, for Supporting Actor. So it would not be too shocking to see him pull off an upset, as it is clear voters love his performance. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• Emily Blunt (The English)
• Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
• Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
• Niecy Nash Betts (Dahmer)
• Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)

Will Win – Amanda Seyfried is the safe bet here as she has yet to lose this category since last year’s Emmys. And her performance as Elizabeth Holmes is lauded across the board. 

Could Win – Do not sleep on Nicey Nash Betts here. The fact that she made it into this category is impressive enough, and she gives a career-defining performance in Monster. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
• Bill Hader (Barry)
• Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Will Win – Jeremy Allen White seems the obvious winner here. He’s a fresh face in the category from a much-buzzed-about freshman show, whether or not some believe it is a comedy. Also, he is the only one in the category not in danger of splitting votes with a castmate. 

Could Win – It is more than possible that a guild of fellow actors could choose to reward a legendary actor like Martin Short or Steve Martin. Also, Bill Hader, surprisingly, has never won this award despite the critical love for Barry. With no Jason Sudeikis to battle against, this may be his moment. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

• Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
• Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
• Jean Smart (Hacks)

Will Win – I will be honest, I was surprised that only Quinta Brunson got in here for Abbott Elementary. Lovely as Quinta is, I think of her as more of the Jerry Seinfeld of Abbott Elementary. That her strength is as the writer/creator of the show versus the acting, where to be frank, most of the cast outshines her. So that said, I think SAG voters will stick to last year’s script and award Jean Smart her second consecutive Lead Actress award. 

Could Win – Well, Quinta, of course, depending on how much the voters love Abbot Elementary. It would be highly entertaining if Jenna Ortega were to pull off a surprising win here. 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• Barry
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Only Murders in the Building

Will Win – This is where I believe Quinta will get her award, as part of the ensemble of Abbott Elementary, and deservingly so. Abbot Elementary boasts one of the most impressive company of actors – from Tyler James Williams, Janelle James, and Sheryl Lee Ralph – they all deliver every time. 

Could Win – Hard to say, as I think Abbott is the sure thing in this category. But perhaps Hacks or even Only Murders may pull off a surprise upset, with the Ted Lasso juggernaut not present this year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

• Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
• Jason Bateman (Ozark)
• Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
• Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
• Adam Scott (Severance)

Will Win – SAG voters love Marty Byrde (aka Jason Batement in Ozark), as evidenced by his two SAG awards for Lead Actor in a Drama Series. So hard to bet against him here, as this was the show’s farewell season. 

Could Win – Bob Odenkirk has so often been an, “always a runner-up, never the winner,” in this category, that voters may decide it is time he finally has the winning moment. Of course it is never wise to sleep on a legendary actor like Jeff Bridges. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

• Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
• Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
• Julia Garner (Ozark)
• Laura Linney (Ozark)
• Zendaya (Euphoria)

Will Win – One of the toughest categories, with three separate Emmy/Golden Globes winners in the category (once again, SAG does not do Supporting, which is where Julia Garner typically competes). Neither Zendaya nor Julia or Jennifer have lost an award they were nominated for in months. So who will the voters choose? Well, I may be way off base for this one, especially as Hollywood seems so in love with Coolidge, but I think Zendaya will take it. 

Could Win – Jennifer Coolidge, of course. 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

• Better Call Saul
• The Crown
• Ozark
• Severance
• The White Lotus

Will Win – Like Quinta Brunson, I believe this is where Jennifer Coolidge will win her award when The White Lotus is awarded Best Ensemble in a Drama Series. 

Could Win – Many of the nominees are strong enough to win. However, I would say Ozark is the obvious choice, as once again, it was the show’s farewell season and voters love the collective performances of the actors. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
• Hong Chau (The Whale)
• Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win – A few months ago, Supporting Actress seemed a toss-up. Then Angela Bassett won Globes and Critic’s Choice, and it looked like she was on her way to a full sweep, culminating in an Oscar win. But then BAFTA happened last weekend, where Kerry Condon emerged victorious, which cannot be dismissed as Condon has numerous critics’ awards under her belt. All that said, I think SAG voters are sticking with Bassett. SAG voters love a narrative and they especially love awarding legendary actors who have perhaps not yet fully gotten their due – think Ruby Dee’s win in this same category for American Gangster. So, Bassett, it is. 

Could Win – Kerry Condon, of course. That said, SAG also does like to throw a curveball or two, so don’t be too shocked if Jamie Lee Curtis sneaks out the win. Especially since much of the narrative I noted above regarding Angela Bassett applies to Jamie Lee Curtis as well. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
• Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Will Win – Ke Huy Quan. BAFTA certainly seemed to throw a spoke in the wheel of what looked like a Quan awards season sweep. However, I do not see a repeat of Barry Keoghan’s win and think the Quan winning train will get back on track. 

Could Win – Either Barry Gleeson or Barry Keoghan. It depends on how much SAG voters love The Banshees of Inisherin and which of the two they love more. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Cate Blanchett (Tár)
• Viola Davis (The Woman King)
• Ana de Armas (Blonde)
• Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win – Many believe this is still a race here, again based on the narrative around Michelle Yeoh – an older actress of color where this may be her best performance and the best chance for an Oscar. I don’t agree. People have been saying for months this is a tight race between Cate and Michelle, but Cate has not lost yet. I think Cate Blanchett is a lock here and a lock to win her third Oscar come March 12. 

Could Win – Despite many believing this to be a race between Cate and Michelle, I can see SAG voters, as a possible makeup for the Oscar snub of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, awarding Danielle the win. And that is not to say that Danielle would be an undeserving winner, but once again, SAG voters love a narrative. And every once in a while, they throw a surprising win that has no chance of repeating at the Oscars. Think Emily Blunt winning Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Austin Butler (Elvis)
• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
• Bill Nighy (Living)
• Adam Sandler (Hustle)

Will Win – This is probably the category that all eyes will be on. The reason is because it may be the difference between the Oscar race for Best Actor being all but over, if Austin Butler wins versus it still simmering, if Brendan Fraser wins. I know I have talked about how much SAG voters love a narrative, and Fraser has probably the best of all the nominees. Still, at its core, his performance was transformative, as was Austin’s, but in a movie that fewer people loved, as compared to the response for Elvis. So what do I think will happen? I’m tentatively leaning toward Austin Butler. I think as much as SAG voters may love Brendan, there has been an obvious tidal shift in Austin’s favor, and I think many voters will fall in line with that shift. 

Could Win – Brendan Fraser, of course. But it would be hilarious if this is the one that Colin Farrell wins, when everyone thought if any award was a sure thing for him, it was BAFTA? 

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Women Talking

Will Win – Perhaps one of the toughest years in this category because so many of the nominees are deserving. The award will likely come down to the two award-season favorites – The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. If I consider history, I am going to say Everything Everywhere wins. One, because it is deserving and two, it is a film with a heavy Asian cast. Think Black Panther winning some years ago. 

Could Win –The Banshees of Inisherin. It is hard to dismiss a film that, like Everything Everywhere, has four acting nominees. That is as clear an indication as ever that it is a strong ensemble of actors.

2023 Oscar Nominations Reaction

The nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were announced early Tuesday morning. Overall, the nominations went as expected in most categories. However, as is the case almost every year, there were a few notable absences and shocking surprises. None more so than in the Best Actress category. Keep reading for my breakdown of some of the major categories. 

BEST ACTRESS

Unquestionably the category that drew the biggest gasps and surprise on Tuesday morning. Here are the five women the Academy voted for: 

• Cate Blanchet – Tár 
• Michelle Williams – The Fableman 
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie 
• Ana de Armas – Blonde 

And here are the five women many expected to receive the nomination: 

• Cate Blanchett – Tár
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Viola Davis – The Woman King 
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till 
• Michelle Williams or Ana de Armas – The Fabelmans/Blonde 

In other words, many accepted that the fifth spot was a toss-up but not at the expense of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler. Many considered Michelle Williams and Ana de Armas as tentative. However, I disagreed about Ana de Armas. 

Many allowed their hatred and in some cases, those who didn’t even see the film, the negative public reaction to Blonde, to cloud their judgments. And in doing so, ignored all the glaringly obvious signs that Ana de Armas was more than a tentative possibility to be nominated. 

Because in reality, Ana has consistently shown up across various major Guilds and voting bodies – a strong indicator that an actor will likely be nominated. She received a nomination for the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA. Similarly, Viola was also a consistent presence across the various voting bodies. Her not being nominated is shocking. 

However, opposite Viola and Ana’s strong showing throughout the season was Michelle Williams, who missed out on SAG and BAFTA. She was the question mark heading into Tuesday’s announcement and in that vein, was a surprise, though not necessarily shocking, nominee. Because despite missing out on some key awards, Williams was a four-time Oscar nominee (now five-time) in a film that was guaranteed a Best Picture nomination, along with other key categories. Her inclusion was always a strong possibility. 

The real surprise and “upset” in this category was Andrea Riseborough’s nomination. A nomination that’s garnering some controversy, not only because many view it as the “black actresses were booted in favor of another white actress,” but also for how Riseborough appeared to get on voters’ radar. Within the last month or two, a growing groundswell of support from some big names in Hollywood built around the actress’ performance. 

With many of these big names – such as Charlize Theron, Kate Winslet, fellow nominee Cate Blanchett, Edward Norton, and more – promoting support for Riseborough’s performance on social media, organizing Q&A with film media and voters, etc. While some are applauding the move, considering it a potential positive game-changer where a film will no longer need to have a big campaign budget behind it to get an Oscar nomination, others are calling foul. 

The argument is this was a clear case of an elitist group of Hollywood big names essentially trying to manipulate the Academy voting process. And before you scoff, the Academy recently put out a statement declaring their intent to investigate award campaigning guidelines, to confirm whether or not any were broken. They don’t directly mention Riseborough’s nomination, however, we can all read between the lines. It will be very interesting to see, if anything, comes from this. 

BEST ACTOR

The nominees are: 

• Austin Butler – Elvis 
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Brendan Fraser – The Whale 
• Bill Nighy – Living 
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun 

The complete opposite of the Best Actress category, the Best Actor nominees shaped up as many predicted. The fifth spot, as is often the case, was a toss-up, with some still hoping Tom Cruise would get in for Top Gun: Maverick, others predicting a complete outlier like Hugh Jackman for The Son or Jeremy Pope for The Inspector. 

However, in the final weeks before the announcement, most pundits acknowledged that the tide was shifting heavily in Paul Mescal’s favor. So really not a surprise he took the final spot. Fun fact, every actor in the category is a first-time nominee. 

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees are: 

• Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Todd Field – Tár
• Martin McDonaugh – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness 

Once again, nothing too shocking here as the four solid locks expected to get in did. The fifth spot was anyone’s guess. While many predicted Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front or big names like James Cameron and Baz Lurhuman, the fact that Triangle of Sadness got a Best Picture nomination makes Östlund’s nomination less surprising. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

The nominees are:

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
• Hong Chau – The Whale 
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

No surprise in this category. The only question mark going into Tuesday’s nomination announcement was whether or not both actresses from Everything Everywhere All At Once would be nominated. Specifically, would Stephanie Hsu be left off the list, in favor of Dolly DeLeon for her amazing performance in Triangle of Sadness? But as we saw with their leading 11 nominations, Academy voters were feeling the Everything Everywhere love. And that extended to celebrating both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu’s performances. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

The nominees are: 

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsh – The Fabelmans 
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once 

This category was a bit more wide open than the other acting categories. Perhaps the only solid locks for a nomination were Ke Huy Quan (who is likely going to win) and Brendan Gleeson. As such, there was no real shocking surprise in the list of nominees. 

Perhaps the most surprising nomination was Brian Tyree Henry’s, as he’d missed out on many of the precursors – no Globe, SAG, or BAFTA nomination. However, his performance in Causeway is critically lauded and was one of the most talked about performances in the early days of Award season. 

It was also a toss-up whether Judd Hirsh or Paul Dano would get in, both for The Fablemans. Dano had the more visible role in the film, while Hirsh, whose presence was minimal, had a “big moment” scene. Not to mention he’s a well-respected, legendary actor. So not a total surprise the voters went in his favor. 

BEST PICTURE 

The nominees are:

• All Quiet on the Western Front 
• Avatar: The Way of Water 
• The Banshees of Inisherin 
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All At Once 
• The Fabelmans 
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick 
• Triangle of Sadness 
• Women Talking 

No big surprises, other than Women Talking getting nominated. Based on the few nominations it received overall throughout the Awards Season, some speculated that the film was unlikely to get a Best Picture nomination. Triangle of Sadness is also somewhat of a surprise. However, with its showing up in some big categories, like Best Director, it’s clear that the voters loved the film. 

As to who and what will ultimately win, hard to say. Other than a few categories, I would say let’s wait and see what happens at SAG and BAFTA. The two are likely to tell the tale. 

2023 Golden Globes Predictions

Image Courtesy Google Images

The Golden Globes are officially back, albeit with an odd Tuesday airdate. The ceremony once dubbed the “biggest party in Hollywood,” is back on air after two years mired in controversy that saw NBC choosing not to air it in 2022. There’s still a huge question mark on whether or not all is forgiven or if a significant segment of the industry remains wary of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). 

It was hard to miss that unlike previous years and compared to other award shows, many of the nominees barely reacted to their nominations. Jerrod Carmichael is this year’s host, a decision that I’m sure some view as a bit of “pandering,” as much of the HFPA’s controversy is intermingled with racial discrimination by the organization. 

Full disclosure, I’m excited to have the ceremony back. I’ve made no secret that the Globes were consistently one of my favorite award show ceremonies. And while I am not dismissing the problematic aspects of the HFPA, as I stated in my blog post addressing the controversy, I believe that much of Hollywood’s reaction to the controversy has been a bit performative. 

That said, with the show back on the air, it’s time for me to make some predictions, half of which will probably be wrong. Because predicting how the HFPA will vote is always a crapshoot, which is half the fun. 

Best Motion Picture, Drama

• Avatar: The Way of Water 
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans 
• Tár 
• Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win – Right off the bat, I’m going to hedge my bets and pick two options. I think the winner will likely be Avatar or Elvis. HFPA loves films like Elvis and are more receptive to Baz Luhrmann’s aesthetic, more so than perhaps the Oscars might be. That said, I also think a big-budget, extravagant production like Avatar is also right up their alley. So my money is on one of these two to take it. 

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
• Triangle of Sadness

Will Win – A few months ago, I would have said this is a lock for The Banshees of Inisherin. However, Babylon appears to have picked up some serious momentum in recent weeks and of course Everything Everywhere All at Once has topped almost every critic’s list in the last year. Still, I’m putting my money on The Banshees of Inisherin to win. 

Best Director, Motion Picture

• James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”) 
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) 
• Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Will Win – Another category where I’m going to hedge my bets. A small voice in my head says that the HFPA voters will be swayed by the grandiosity of Avatar and reward James Cameron for pulling it all together. Another little voice however, says they will not be able to resist rewarding a legend like Steven Spielberg for a project that is so deeply personal to him. 

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

• Tár — Todd Field 
• Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert 
• The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh 
• Women Talking — Sarah Polley 
• The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner

Will Win – This category is always a total crapshoot, only because, unlike the other major award shows, Globes do not make a distinction between Original and Adapted Screenplay. A distinction that can often skew the final results. However, since I have to make a prediction, I’m going to say The Banshees of Inisherin will win for a screenplay that is quirky, offbeat, and overall, fun. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

• Austin Butler (“Elvis”) 
• Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) 
• Hugh Jackman (“The Son”)
• Bill Nighy (“Living”) 
• Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection”)

Will Win – Let me first say that I still believe the Academy Award will come down to Brendan Fraser versus Colin Farrell. That said, I think Austin Butler is going to take this one. Once again, it’s the type of role that HFPA voters love – think Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody and Taron Edgerton in Rocketman. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

• Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
• Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”) 
• Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) 
• Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
• Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)  

Will Win – Queen Blanchett will begin her likely run toward a third Oscar. With her toughest challenger, Michelle Yeoh, competing in Comedy or Musical, this is a slam dunk for Cate. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Lesley Manville (“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”) 
• Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) 
• Anya Taylor-Joy (“The Menu”) 
• Emma Thompson (“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”) 
• Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Will Win – As noted above, with Michelle Yeoh the only one to conceivably pose a real threat to Cate Blanchett’s winning the Oscar for Best Actress, it’s hard to bet against her in this category. A potential spoiler could be Margot Robbie, depending on how big the love for Babylon is. However, I believe this is Yeoh’s to lose. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

• Diego Calva (“Babylon”) 
• Daniel Craig (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
• Adam Driver (“White Noise”) 
• Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Ralph Fiennes (“The Menu”) 

Will Win – In recent weeks, Colin Farrell has emerged as a heavy favorite to win Best Actor, come Oscar Sunday. We’ll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition, but right now, I’ll say he’s a definite lock to win this category. 

Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture

• Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Brad Pitt (“Babylon”)
• Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”)

Will Win – There’s always a concern about the possibility of splitting votes when two actors from the same film are in a category. I don’t think this will be an issue for Brendan Gleeson, who is still a heavy Oscar favorite. That said, I believe this category may come down to which film the HFPA voters love more – Everything Everywhere All at Once or The Banshees of Inisherin. I know Ke Huy Quan is the oddsmaker’s favorite to win the Oscar, but I think Brendan Gleeson, a legendary actor, will ultimately prevail here. 

Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture

• Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
• Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
• Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
• Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”)
• Carey Mulligan (“She Said”)

Will Win – There were some surprising snubs in this category, namely Claire Foy for Women Talking and Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. With those omissions, it is hard to bet against Kerry Condon, a consistent presence in the Supporting Actress race. 

Best Television Series, Drama

• Better Call Saul
• The Crown
• House of the Dragon
• Ozark
• Severance 

Will Win – I always say that HFPA loves quirky, and fresh new shows, which would suggest that Severance is the likely winner. That said, the voters also love big productions, which fall right in the House of the Dragon’s wheelhouse. So which one will it be? My guess; the House of the Dragon will emerge victorious. 

Best Television Series, Musical or Comedy

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Only Murders in the Building
• Wednesday

Will Win – About that whole thing of HFPA voters loving fresh, offbeat, and quirky shows – look for The Bear to pull out the win in this category. That said, I wouldn’t be too shocked by a surprise win in Wednesday’s favor. Because once again, it’s the kind of move that’s right up the HFPA alley. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama

• Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) 
• Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”)
• Diego Luna (“Andor”)
• Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
• Adam Scott (“Severance”)

Will Win – This is an intriguing category. Although I think House of the Dragon will win Best Drama, interestingly, none of the actors from the show were nominated. Yellowstone has been an underrated cult favorite that finally seems to be getting its due. All that said, I think this may come down to Jeff Bridges or Adam Scott. Bridges because he’s a legendary, well-respected actor in a little-watched yet critically acclaimed show, and Scott for being in the aforementioned fresh and quirky new show. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama

• Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) 
• Laura Linney (“Ozark”) 
• Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”)
• Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”)
• Zendaya (“Euphoria”)

Will Win – Zendaya has been on a winning streak for her performance in Euphoria and that is unlikely to change on Tuesday night.

Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

• Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) 
• Kaley Cuoco (“The Flight Attendant”) 
• Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
• Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”) 
• Jean Smart (“Hacks”) 

Will Win – I’m sure you’re all sick of me saying it, but once again, HFPA loves to reward new fresh faces. While this category will consistently be a fight between Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson at all other big award shows, look for Jenna Ortega to pull off the big upset on January 10. 

Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

• Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) 
• Bill Hader (“Barry”) 
• Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
• Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
• Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) 

Will Win – There are some big names and heavy hitters in this category. However, the winner will be the underdog, Jeremy Allen White. Like Jenna Ortega, HFPA voters will reward the fresh face (well fresh relative to the other actors who’ve all been in this category before) from the new breakout show. 

Best Supporting Actor, Television

• John Lithgow (“The Old Man”) 
• Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”) 
• John Turturro (“Severance”) 
• Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) 
• Henry Winkler (“Barry”)

Will Win – Lithgow is always a formidable force in any category, so look for him to be the heavy favorite. My guess is this will come down to either him or John Turturro. 

Best Supporting Actress, Television

• Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) 
• Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) 
• Julia Garner (“Ozark”) 
• Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”) 
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”) 

Will Win – Personally my vote in this category would go to Janelle James for her always hilarious portrayal of Principal Ava Coleman on Abbott Elementary. That said, I believe this will be an Ozark vs. Hacks battle, with the winner either Hannah Einbinder or Julia Garner. 

Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture made for Television

• Black Bird
• Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
• The Dropout
• Pam & Tommy
• The White Lotus

Will Win – It’s interesting seeing some of these nominees next to newer, more recent shows. At this point, it almost feels like Pam & Tommy came out two years ago. As lauded as The White Lotus has been, I believe Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story will steal its thunder. One, because it was a popular and hotly-debated limited series, and two, both of Ryan Murphy’s previous limited series in this vein were rewarded by the Globes – The People vs. OJ Simpson and The Assassination of Gianni Versace.  

Best Performance by an Actor, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”) 
• Colin Firth (“The Staircase”) 
• Andrew Garfield (“Under the Banner of Heaven”) 
• Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
• Sebastian Stan (“Pam & Tommy”) 

Will Win – Whatever one’s personal feelings about the show, no one could deny the career-defining performance Evan Peters delivered in Monster. He will be rewarded for it. 

Best Performance by an Actress, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”) 
• Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”) 
• Lily James (“Pam & Tommy”) 
• Julia Roberts (“Gaslit”) 
• Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”) 

Will Win – There are certainly some big names in this category. However, I believe HFPA voters will stay the course on this one and give Amanda Seyfried another award to add to her growing trophy cabinet. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”) 
• Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) 
• Daisy Edgar-Jones (“Under the Banner of Heaven”) 
• Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
• Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus”) 

Will Win – Though not the lead, Niecy Nash-Betts, like Evan Peters, delivered what is to this point, the performance of her career in Monster. She is my favorite to win but depending on how much HFPA is feeling The White Lotus love, Jennifer Coolidge has a strong chance of repeating her Emmy glory. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture made for Television

• F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”) 
• Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”) 
• Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) 
• Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
• Seth Rogen (“Pam & Tommy”) 

Will Win – This one is a big toss-up for me so I’m going to go with my gut and say Richard Jenkins will win, assuming HFPA voters aren’t as enamored as the Television Academy was by White Lotus. In which case, then F. Murray Abraham will win.

Best Original Score, Motion Picture

• The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Alexandre Desplat 
• Women Talking — Hildur Guðnadóttir 
• Babylon — Justin Hurwitz 
• The Fabelmans — John Williams  

Will Win – The Fablemans is the type of film that fits perfectly with a classic John Williams score. And come Tuesday night, it will very likely win.  

Best Picture, Non-English Language

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) 
• Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) 
• Close (Belgium) 
• Decision to Leave (South Korea) 
• RRR (India) 

Will Win – With no clear favorite this year, a la Roma or Parasite a few years ago, this can go many ways. However, RRR is the only nominee that shows up in another category (Original Song), and for that, I’ll go with it as the likely winner. 

Best Original Song, Motion Picture

• “Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing” — Taylor Swift 
• “Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” — Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro 
• “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” — Lady Gaga, BloodPop, Benjamin Rice
• “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” — Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler 
• “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj 

Will Win – While it seems like the entire world is currently obsessed with all things Taylor Swift, HFPA has shown that they love Lady Gaga. With the massive success of Top Gun, I see this as the surefire category to show the movie some love. That and also, Hold My Hand is just a freaking awesome song. 

Best Motion Picture, Animated

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
• Inu-Oh
• Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 
• Turning Red

Will Win – Hard to bet against a uniquely constructed film from an Oscar-winning legendary director. Pinnochio is the obvious winner here.