It is the final big one before the BIG ONE – aka, the Oscars. The Screen Actors Guild is ready to hand out their awards for the best film and television acting performances of 2022.
Unlike some previous years where many of the film acting categories were locked by this point, that is not the case this year, making this year’s ceremony much more intriguing. One thing is certain, by the end of tomorrow night’s ceremony, we will have a much clearer picture of who is likely to take home Oscar gold on March 12. Here are my predictions for this year’s SAG awards.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
- Steve Carrell (The Patient)
- Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
- Sam Elliott (1883)
- Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
- Evan Peters (Dahmer)
Will Win – Evan Peters. Yes, there was controversy around the miniseries. However, what was never in dispute was Peters’ chillingly masterful performance. Not to mention that despite the controversy the streaming numbers for Monster were incredible. Before Wednesday debuted, it was the most-watched series on Netflix for 2022.
Could Win – SAG has this annoying aspect where it does not include supporting categories. As a result, you will often find actors who have swept supporting categories at the Emmys or Golden Globes, competing in Lead at SAG, which is the case here for Paul Hauser. He has been on a roll these past two months, winning the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice, for Supporting Actor. So it would not be too shocking to see him pull off an upset, as it is clear voters love his performance.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
- Emily Blunt (The English)
- Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
- Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
- Niecy Nash Betts (Dahmer)
- Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)
Will Win – Amanda Seyfried is the safe bet here as she has yet to lose this category since last year’s Emmys. And her performance as Elizabeth Holmes is lauded across the board.
Could Win – Do not sleep on Nicey Nash Betts here. The fact that she made it into this category is impressive enough, and she gives a career-defining performance in Monster.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
- Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
- Bill Hader (Barry)
- Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
- Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
- Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
Will Win – Jeremy Allen White seems the obvious winner here. He’s a fresh face in the category from a much-buzzed-about freshman show, whether or not some believe it is a comedy. Also, he is the only one in the category not in danger of splitting votes with a castmate.
Could Win – It is more than possible that a guild of fellow actors could choose to reward a legendary actor like Martin Short or Steve Martin. Also, Bill Hader, surprisingly, has never won this award despite the critical love for Barry. With no Jason Sudeikis to battle against, this may be his moment.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
- Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
- Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
- Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
- Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
- Jean Smart (Hacks)
Will Win – I will be honest, I was surprised that only Quinta Brunson got in here for Abbott Elementary. Lovely as Quinta is, I think of her as more of the Jerry Seinfeld of Abbott Elementary. That her strength is as the writer/creator of the show versus the acting, where to be frank, most of the cast outshines her. So that said, I think SAG voters will stick to last year’s script and award Jean Smart her second consecutive Lead Actress award.
Could Win – Well, Quinta, of course, depending on how much the voters love Abbot Elementary. It would be highly entertaining if Jenna Ortega were to pull off a surprising win here.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
- Abbott Elementary
- Barry
- The Bear
- Hacks
- Only Murders in the Building
Will Win – This is where I believe Quinta will get her award, as part of the ensemble of Abbott Elementary, and deservingly so. Abbot Elementary boasts one of the most impressive company of actors – from Tyler James Williams, Janelle James, and Sheryl Lee Ralph – they all deliver every time.
Could Win – Hard to say, as I think Abbott is the sure thing in this category. But perhaps Hacks or even Only Murders may pull off a surprise upset, with the Ted Lasso juggernaut not present this year.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
- Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
- Jason Bateman (Ozark)
- Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
- Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
- Adam Scott (Severance)
Will Win – SAG voters love Marty Byrde (aka Jason Batement in Ozark), as evidenced by his two SAG awards for Lead Actor in a Drama Series. So hard to bet against him here, as this was the show’s farewell season.
Could Win – Bob Odenkirk has so often been an, “always a runner-up, never the winner,” in this category, that voters may decide it is time he finally has the winning moment. Of course it is never wise to sleep on a legendary actor like Jeff Bridges.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
- Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
- Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
- Julia Garner (Ozark)
- Laura Linney (Ozark)
- Zendaya (Euphoria)
Will Win – One of the toughest categories, with three separate Emmy/Golden Globes winners in the category (once again, SAG does not do Supporting, which is where Julia Garner typically competes). Neither Zendaya nor Julia or Jennifer have lost an award they were nominated for in months. So who will the voters choose? Well, I may be way off base for this one, especially as Hollywood seems so in love with Coolidge, but I think Zendaya will take it.
Could Win – Jennifer Coolidge, of course.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
- Better Call Saul
- The Crown
- Ozark
- Severance
- The White Lotus
Will Win – Like Quinta Brunson, I believe this is where Jennifer Coolidge will win her award when The White Lotus is awarded Best Ensemble in a Drama Series.
Could Win – Many of the nominees are strong enough to win. However, I would say Ozark is the obvious choice, as once again, it was the show’s farewell season and voters love the collective performances of the actors.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Hong Chau (The Whale)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Will Win – A few months ago, Supporting Actress seemed a toss-up. Then Angela Bassett won Globes and Critic’s Choice, and it looked like she was on her way to a full sweep, culminating in an Oscar win. But then BAFTA happened last weekend, where Kerry Condon emerged victorious, which cannot be dismissed as Condon has numerous critics’ awards under her belt. All that said, I think SAG voters are sticking with Bassett. SAG voters love a narrative and they especially love awarding legendary actors who have perhaps not yet fully gotten their due – think Ruby Dee’s win in this same category for American Gangster. So, Bassett, it is.
Could Win – Kerry Condon, of course. That said, SAG also does like to throw a curveball or two, so don’t be too shocked if Jamie Lee Curtis sneaks out the win. Especially since much of the narrative I noted above regarding Angela Bassett applies to Jamie Lee Curtis as well.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
- Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
- Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Will Win – Ke Huy Quan. BAFTA certainly seemed to throw a spoke in the wheel of what looked like a Quan awards season sweep. However, I do not see a repeat of Barry Keoghan’s win and think the Quan winning train will get back on track.
Could Win – Either Barry Gleeson or Barry Keoghan. It depends on how much SAG voters love The Banshees of Inisherin and which of the two they love more.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Cate Blanchett (Tár)
- Viola Davis (The Woman King)
- Ana de Armas (Blonde)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Will Win – Many believe this is still a race here, again based on the narrative around Michelle Yeoh – an older actress of color where this may be her best performance and the best chance for an Oscar. I don’t agree. People have been saying for months this is a tight race between Cate and Michelle, but Cate has not lost yet. I think Cate Blanchett is a lock here and a lock to win her third Oscar come March 12.
Could Win – Despite many believing this to be a race between Cate and Michelle, I can see SAG voters, as a possible makeup for the Oscar snub of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, awarding Danielle the win. And that is not to say that Danielle would be an undeserving winner, but once again, SAG voters love a narrative. And every once in a while, they throw a surprising win that has no chance of repeating at the Oscars. Think Emily Blunt winning Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
- Austin Butler (Elvis)
- Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Bill Nighy (Living)
- Adam Sandler (Hustle)
Will Win – This is probably the category that all eyes will be on. The reason is because it may be the difference between the Oscar race for Best Actor being all but over, if Austin Butler wins versus it still simmering, if Brendan Fraser wins. I know I have talked about how much SAG voters love a narrative, and Fraser has probably the best of all the nominees. Still, at its core, his performance was transformative, as was Austin’s, but in a movie that fewer people loved, as compared to the response for Elvis. So what do I think will happen? I’m tentatively leaning toward Austin Butler. I think as much as SAG voters may love Brendan, there has been an obvious tidal shift in Austin’s favor, and I think many voters will fall in line with that shift.
Could Win – Brendan Fraser, of course. But it would be hilarious if this is the one that Colin Farrell wins, when everyone thought if any award was a sure thing for him, it was BAFTA?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
- Babylon
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Women Talking
Will Win – Perhaps one of the toughest years in this category because so many of the nominees are deserving. The award will likely come down to the two award-season favorites – The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. If I consider history, I am going to say Everything Everywhere wins. One, because it is deserving and two, it is a film with a heavy Asian cast. Think Black Panther winning some years ago.
Could Win –The Banshees of Inisherin. It is hard to dismiss a film that, like Everything Everywhere, has four acting nominees. That is as clear an indication as ever that it is a strong ensemble of actors.
PoPnOgR@PhY 