2023 SAG Awards Predictions

It is the final big one before the BIG ONE – aka, the Oscars. The Screen Actors Guild is ready to hand out their awards for the best film and television acting performances of 2022. 

Unlike some previous years where many of the film acting categories were locked by this point, that is not the case this year, making this year’s ceremony much more intriguing. One thing is certain, by the end of tomorrow night’s ceremony, we will have a much clearer picture of who is likely to take home Oscar gold on March 12. Here are my predictions for this year’s SAG awards. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• Steve Carrell (The Patient)
• Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
• Sam Elliott (1883)
• Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
• Evan Peters (Dahmer)

Will Win – Evan Peters. Yes, there was controversy around the miniseries. However, what was never in dispute was Peters’ chillingly masterful performance. Not to mention that despite the controversy the streaming numbers for Monster were incredible. Before Wednesday debuted, it was the most-watched series on Netflix for 2022. 

Could Win – SAG has this annoying aspect where it does not include supporting categories. As a result, you will often find actors who have swept supporting categories at the Emmys or Golden Globes, competing in Lead at SAG, which is the case here for Paul Hauser. He has been on a roll these past two months, winning the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice, for Supporting Actor. So it would not be too shocking to see him pull off an upset, as it is clear voters love his performance. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

• Emily Blunt (The English)
• Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
• Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
• Niecy Nash Betts (Dahmer)
• Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)

Will Win – Amanda Seyfried is the safe bet here as she has yet to lose this category since last year’s Emmys. And her performance as Elizabeth Holmes is lauded across the board. 

Could Win – Do not sleep on Nicey Nash Betts here. The fact that she made it into this category is impressive enough, and she gives a career-defining performance in Monster. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
• Bill Hader (Barry)
• Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Will Win – Jeremy Allen White seems the obvious winner here. He’s a fresh face in the category from a much-buzzed-about freshman show, whether or not some believe it is a comedy. Also, he is the only one in the category not in danger of splitting votes with a castmate. 

Could Win – It is more than possible that a guild of fellow actors could choose to reward a legendary actor like Martin Short or Steve Martin. Also, Bill Hader, surprisingly, has never won this award despite the critical love for Barry. With no Jason Sudeikis to battle against, this may be his moment. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

• Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
• Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
• Jean Smart (Hacks)

Will Win – I will be honest, I was surprised that only Quinta Brunson got in here for Abbott Elementary. Lovely as Quinta is, I think of her as more of the Jerry Seinfeld of Abbott Elementary. That her strength is as the writer/creator of the show versus the acting, where to be frank, most of the cast outshines her. So that said, I think SAG voters will stick to last year’s script and award Jean Smart her second consecutive Lead Actress award. 

Could Win – Well, Quinta, of course, depending on how much the voters love Abbot Elementary. It would be highly entertaining if Jenna Ortega were to pull off a surprising win here. 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• Barry
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Only Murders in the Building

Will Win – This is where I believe Quinta will get her award, as part of the ensemble of Abbott Elementary, and deservingly so. Abbot Elementary boasts one of the most impressive company of actors – from Tyler James Williams, Janelle James, and Sheryl Lee Ralph – they all deliver every time. 

Could Win – Hard to say, as I think Abbott is the sure thing in this category. But perhaps Hacks or even Only Murders may pull off a surprise upset, with the Ted Lasso juggernaut not present this year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

• Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
• Jason Bateman (Ozark)
• Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
• Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
• Adam Scott (Severance)

Will Win – SAG voters love Marty Byrde (aka Jason Batement in Ozark), as evidenced by his two SAG awards for Lead Actor in a Drama Series. So hard to bet against him here, as this was the show’s farewell season. 

Could Win – Bob Odenkirk has so often been an, “always a runner-up, never the winner,” in this category, that voters may decide it is time he finally has the winning moment. Of course it is never wise to sleep on a legendary actor like Jeff Bridges. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

• Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
• Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
• Julia Garner (Ozark)
• Laura Linney (Ozark)
• Zendaya (Euphoria)

Will Win – One of the toughest categories, with three separate Emmy/Golden Globes winners in the category (once again, SAG does not do Supporting, which is where Julia Garner typically competes). Neither Zendaya nor Julia or Jennifer have lost an award they were nominated for in months. So who will the voters choose? Well, I may be way off base for this one, especially as Hollywood seems so in love with Coolidge, but I think Zendaya will take it. 

Could Win – Jennifer Coolidge, of course. 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

• Better Call Saul
• The Crown
• Ozark
• Severance
• The White Lotus

Will Win – Like Quinta Brunson, I believe this is where Jennifer Coolidge will win her award when The White Lotus is awarded Best Ensemble in a Drama Series. 

Could Win – Many of the nominees are strong enough to win. However, I would say Ozark is the obvious choice, as once again, it was the show’s farewell season and voters love the collective performances of the actors. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
• Hong Chau (The Whale)
• Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win – A few months ago, Supporting Actress seemed a toss-up. Then Angela Bassett won Globes and Critic’s Choice, and it looked like she was on her way to a full sweep, culminating in an Oscar win. But then BAFTA happened last weekend, where Kerry Condon emerged victorious, which cannot be dismissed as Condon has numerous critics’ awards under her belt. All that said, I think SAG voters are sticking with Bassett. SAG voters love a narrative and they especially love awarding legendary actors who have perhaps not yet fully gotten their due – think Ruby Dee’s win in this same category for American Gangster. So, Bassett, it is. 

Could Win – Kerry Condon, of course. That said, SAG also does like to throw a curveball or two, so don’t be too shocked if Jamie Lee Curtis sneaks out the win. Especially since much of the narrative I noted above regarding Angela Bassett applies to Jamie Lee Curtis as well. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
• Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Will Win – Ke Huy Quan. BAFTA certainly seemed to throw a spoke in the wheel of what looked like a Quan awards season sweep. However, I do not see a repeat of Barry Keoghan’s win and think the Quan winning train will get back on track. 

Could Win – Either Barry Gleeson or Barry Keoghan. It depends on how much SAG voters love The Banshees of Inisherin and which of the two they love more. 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Cate Blanchett (Tár)
• Viola Davis (The Woman King)
• Ana de Armas (Blonde)
• Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Will Win – Many believe this is still a race here, again based on the narrative around Michelle Yeoh – an older actress of color where this may be her best performance and the best chance for an Oscar. I don’t agree. People have been saying for months this is a tight race between Cate and Michelle, but Cate has not lost yet. I think Cate Blanchett is a lock here and a lock to win her third Oscar come March 12. 

Could Win – Despite many believing this to be a race between Cate and Michelle, I can see SAG voters, as a possible makeup for the Oscar snub of both Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, awarding Danielle the win. And that is not to say that Danielle would be an undeserving winner, but once again, SAG voters love a narrative. And every once in a while, they throw a surprising win that has no chance of repeating at the Oscars. Think Emily Blunt winning Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place. 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Austin Butler (Elvis)
• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
• Bill Nighy (Living)
• Adam Sandler (Hustle)

Will Win – This is probably the category that all eyes will be on. The reason is because it may be the difference between the Oscar race for Best Actor being all but over, if Austin Butler wins versus it still simmering, if Brendan Fraser wins. I know I have talked about how much SAG voters love a narrative, and Fraser has probably the best of all the nominees. Still, at its core, his performance was transformative, as was Austin’s, but in a movie that fewer people loved, as compared to the response for Elvis. So what do I think will happen? I’m tentatively leaning toward Austin Butler. I think as much as SAG voters may love Brendan, there has been an obvious tidal shift in Austin’s favor, and I think many voters will fall in line with that shift. 

Could Win – Brendan Fraser, of course. But it would be hilarious if this is the one that Colin Farrell wins, when everyone thought if any award was a sure thing for him, it was BAFTA? 

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

• Babylon
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Women Talking

Will Win – Perhaps one of the toughest years in this category because so many of the nominees are deserving. The award will likely come down to the two award-season favorites – The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. If I consider history, I am going to say Everything Everywhere wins. One, because it is deserving and two, it is a film with a heavy Asian cast. Think Black Panther winning some years ago. 

Could Win –The Banshees of Inisherin. It is hard to dismiss a film that, like Everything Everywhere, has four acting nominees. That is as clear an indication as ever that it is a strong ensemble of actors.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

So as it turns out, I am genuinely excited for this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards. Unfortunately, that has not been the case in recent years. Last year was understandably not the fault of the Academy or the various networks and streaming companies, as the pandemic wreaked havoc on the filming schedule for many shows. 

As a result, the categories perhaps weren’t as competitive. Not the case this year, where many of the races, particularly Drama and Comedy, are stacked. That also means that most of my predictions may turn out wrong. However, I’m still willing to sift through the tea leaves and give it the ‘old college try. So without further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards. 

Best Drama Series 

• Better Call Saul 
• Euphoria 
• Ozark  
• Severance
• Squid Game
• Stranger Things
• Succession  
• Yellowjackets

Will Win – There’s been a lot of buzz in recent months that we’re likely to see history made at this year’s Primetime Emmys when the first non-English speaking series wins Best Drama. I am, of course, referring to Squid Game. However, call me stubborn, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Not least of all that I think the days of Squid Game mania have died down significantly. Not surprising, as the show came out almost a year ago. I believe the Television Academy voters will play it safe, and Succession will repeat its 2020 win in this category. 

Could Win – Squid Game, for obvious reasons. I would also throw in Severance as a potential dark horse. 

Lead Actor in a Drama Series 

• Jason Bateman (Ozark) 
• Brian Cox (Succession)  
• Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game)   
• Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)  
• Adam Scott (Severance)  
• Jeremy Strong (Succession) 

Will Win – Much like the Drama Series category, there is a lot of talk about the possibility of Lee Jung-jae repeating his SAG and Critics Choice successes in this category. The other heavy favorite is Bob Odenkirk for Better Call Saul’s final season, a show that’s consistently nominated but has never won. Regarding the latter, Academy voters aren’t always susceptible to “it’s the last season, so let’s vote for him or her.” See Steve Carrell for The Office. So I’m not entirely sold on Odenkirk being a sure thing just because Better Call Saul has ended. Television Academy voters have shown many times that they’re not opposed to repeating winners, which is why I think Jeremy Strong will win. 

Could Win – Lee Jung-jae or Bob Odenkirk. And, in fairness, this is just one of the many categories this year where as many as four of the nominees would be more than deserving. 

Lead Actress in a Drama Series 

• Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
• Laura Linney (Ozark)  
• Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)  
• Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)  
• Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)   
• Zendaya (Euphoria) 

Will Win – This is a potential three-way race between Zendaya, Melanie Lynskey, and Laura Linney. The latter is the least likely to win of the three. Most critics and pundits seem to agree that based purely on the nominees’ submitted performances, Zendaya should win this award. However, we all know award shows are as much about the intangibles as they are about the actual performances. And some of the intangibles here are that Zendaya’s already won. Will the Academy vote to award her again, so soon? There’s also been very vocal grassroots support for Lynskey. All that said, I still think Zendaya’s going to win. And yes, I realize that means I think the Drama categories will be a repeat of 2020. Euphoria’s inclusion in the Drama Series category, coupled with the numerous other nominations it received, I believe shows that the Academy has great respect for the show overall. And it’s universally acknowledged that Zendaya’s performance this past season was stellar. 

Could Win – Melanie Lynskey, of course. But don’t sleep on Laura Linney who is an industry veteran with three previous Emmy wins. This is also her final chance to win for her role on Ozark. 

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 

• Nicholas Braun (Succession)
• Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
• Kieran Culkin (Succession)
• Park Hae-soo (Squid Game)
• Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
• John Turturro (Severance)
• Christopher Walken (Severance)
• Oh Yeong-su (Squid Game)

Will Win – The consensus appears to be that this is a fight between the Succession guys – well, two of them (no offense Nicholas Braun – but the nomination was the win here). That is, Kieran Culkin and Matthew Macfadyen, with many pundits predicting Macfadyen to take it. However, I think this is finally Kieran Culkin’s time. He’s been a standout on the show from the start but has yet to get Emmy glory. I believe it’ll happen this year. 

Could Win – Matthew Macfadyen. However, I wouldn’t completely discount the Severance actors, as we saw Billy Crudup sweep in and win for The Morning Show two years ago. Turturro and Walken are both legendary, well-respected actors on a critically acclaimed show. That’s always a great recipe for a win. 

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 

• Patricia Arquette (Severance)
• Julia Garner (Ozark)
• Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game)
• Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
• Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)
• J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
• Sarah Snook (Succession)
• Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)

Will Win – I admit I’m the most unsure with this category. So I’ll defer to the critics, and go with Rhea Seehorn. 

Could Win – It’d certainly be silly to bet entirely against someone who’s won this category multiple times. And for that reason, I have to say Julia Garner is a strong possibility to win.

Best Limited Series 

• Dopesick 
• The Dropout 
• Inventing Anna 
• Pam and Tommy 
• The White Lotus 

Will Win – Contrary to the above, I’m going to go against the popular opinion, which predicts a win for The White Lotus, and say Dopesick is going to win. It’s my belief that everything about Dopesick is perfect for a win in this category – great acting, an important story that explores a very real and complex issue, character-driven, etc. 

Could Win – This is a two-way race between Dopesick and The White Lotus. So if the former doesn’t win, it’ll be the latter. 

Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie 

• Colin Firth (The Staircase) 
• Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven)
• Oscar Isaac (Scenes From a Marriage)  
• Michael Keaton (Dopesick)  
• Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)  
• Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy) 

Will Win – This may be the most sewn-up category of the night. It’s going to be Michael Keaton for Dopesick, without question. 

Could Win – Michael Keaton. Okay, yes, I should acknowledge the buzz around Himesh Patel’s performance in Station Eleven. But I don’t think voters will switch from Keaton in this category. 

Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie 

• Toni Collette (The Staircase) 
• Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”)  
• Lily James (“Pam and Tommy”)  
• Sarah Paulson (“Impeachment: American Crime Story”)
• Margaret Qualley (“Maid”)  
• Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”) 

Will Win – This is a tough category because at least four of these women gave stellar performances. That said, it’s still mostly a one-woman race, and that’s Amanda Seyfried. She gave herself completely over to embody every facet of Elizabeth Holmes. 

Could Win – I think both Margaret Qualley and Toni Collette are significant threats in this category. I’ve heard the talk about Lily James possibly winning. However, I don’t see it happening. 

Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie 

• Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus) 
• Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
• Will Poulter (Dopesick)
• Seth Rogen (Pam & Tommy)
• Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
• Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
• Steve Zahn (The White Lotus)

Will Win – Another category I’m not as confident about, so I’ll defer to the pundits, who all appear to believe it’s a slam-dunk for Murray Bartlett. 

Could Win – There’s been a lot of talk about Seth Rogen’s performance in Pam & Tommy. So a possible win here would not be that shocking. 

Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie 

• Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
• Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
• Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)
• Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick)
• Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus)
• Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)
• Mare Winningham (Dopesick)

Will Win – Putting aside that the Television Academy apparently didn’t think any actress outside of The White Lotus and Dopesick gave a strong supporting performance, this is a likely sure thing for Jennifer Coolidge. 

Could Win – Mare Winningham gave the type of performance in Dopesick that voters love – emotional, heart-wrenching, and deeply internalized. 

Outstanding Comedy Series 

• Abbott Elementary 
• Barry
• Curb Your Enthusiasm 
• Hacks 
• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel 
• Only Murders In the Building 
• Ted Lasso
• What We Do In the Shadows 

Will Win – Whoo boy the comedy categories are a doozy this year. For most of the categories, there are at least three or four potential winners. And the Comedy Series category is no different. Ted Lasso still has a lot of buzz around it, Hacks has only gone from strength to strength, Barry is back after a long wait, Only Murders in the Building is in the mix for the first time, and of course, there’s the network darling, Abbott Elementary. So which one will take it? I am genuinely torn on this one and so I’m going with my gut and picking Abbot Elementary. 

Could Win – Ted Lasso or Only Murders in the Building. I don’t think it will be Hacks or Barry, great as they are. 

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 

• Donald Glover (Atlanta) 
• Bill Hader (Barry)  
• Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
• Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)   
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)  
• Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) 

Will Win – As I said, the comedy categories are a doozy. Either of the four of Bill Hader, Jason Sudeikis, Steve Martin, and Martin Short could win here. That said, I will go against the consensus that seems to believe Bill Hader is the likely winner and pick Jason Sudeikis. 

Can Win – Bill Hader or Steve Martin. Martin may win just for that brilliant elevator scene alone. And it would be well-deserved. 

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series 

• Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)  
• Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)  
• Elle Fanning (The Great)  
• Issa Rae (Insecure)
• Jean Smart (Hacks)

Will Win – Unlike Comedy Series and Lead Actor, this category is less competitive, with the winner likely coming down to just two women – Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson. My gut says it will be the former. I believe Brunson’s glory will come for writing for a Comedy Series, for which she’s nominated. 

Could Win – Quinta Brunson. 

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 

• Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
• Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
• Toheeb Jimoh (Ted Lasso)
• Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
• Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
• Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
• Henry Winkler (Barry)
• Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

Will Win – There’s been a lot of talk that this category will likely come down to the Ted Lasso actors, with Toheeb Jimoh edging out last year’s winner, Brett Goldstein. I don’t think that will be the case. I think Goldstein, like Sudeikis, will repeat. 

Could Win – Toheeb Jimoh and Henry Winkler. I wouldn’t count Henry Winkler out here. 

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 

• Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) 
• Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
• Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
• Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
• Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)
• Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
• Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
• Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

Will Win – Many pundits believe this will be a battle of the two Hannahs, with Hannah Waddingham edging out the win. Not a wild prediction as Waddingham has been on a roll, winning everything last year, including the Emmy. And she had another stellar performance this past season of Ted Lasso. However, I’m going to swerve away from the consensus and say Janelle James will win for Abbott Elementary. While the entire cast of Abbott Elementary is amazing, and it would be nice to see an industry vet like Sheryl Lee Ralph get her flowers, James’ Ava was the true scene stealer of the season.

Could Win – Hannah Waddingham or Hannah Einbinder. Unfortunately, I don’t think Ralph has a real shot in this category. If the voters stick to the predictable choices, the winner will likely be one of the Hannahs.