So as it turns out, I am genuinely excited for this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards. Unfortunately, that has not been the case in recent years. Last year was understandably not the fault of the Academy or the various networks and streaming companies, as the pandemic wreaked havoc on the filming schedule for many shows.
As a result, the categories perhaps weren’t as competitive. Not the case this year, where many of the races, particularly Drama and Comedy, are stacked. That also means that most of my predictions may turn out wrong. However, I’m still willing to sift through the tea leaves and give it the ‘old college try. So without further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards.
Best Drama Series
- Better Call Saul
- Euphoria
- Ozark
- Severance
- Squid Game
- Stranger Things
- Succession
- Yellowjackets
Will Win – There’s been a lot of buzz in recent months that we’re likely to see history made at this year’s Primetime Emmys when the first non-English speaking series wins Best Drama. I am, of course, referring to Squid Game. However, call me stubborn, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Not least of all that I think the days of Squid Game mania have died down significantly. Not surprising, as the show came out almost a year ago. I believe the Television Academy voters will play it safe, and Succession will repeat its 2020 win in this category.
Could Win – Squid Game, for obvious reasons. I would also throw in Severance as a potential dark horse.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Jason Bateman (Ozark)
- Brian Cox (Succession)
- Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game)
- Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
- Adam Scott (Severance)
- Jeremy Strong (Succession)
Will Win – Much like the Drama Series category, there is a lot of talk about the possibility of Lee Jung-jae repeating his SAG and Critics Choice successes in this category. The other heavy favorite is Bob Odenkirk for Better Call Saul’s final season, a show that’s consistently nominated but has never won. Regarding the latter, Academy voters aren’t always susceptible to “it’s the last season, so let’s vote for him or her.” See Steve Carrell for The Office. So I’m not entirely sold on Odenkirk being a sure thing just because Better Call Saul has ended. Television Academy voters have shown many times that they’re not opposed to repeating winners, which is why I think Jeremy Strong will win.
Could Win – Lee Jung-jae or Bob Odenkirk. And, in fairness, this is just one of the many categories this year where as many as four of the nominees would be more than deserving.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
- Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
- Laura Linney (Ozark)
- Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
- Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
- Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
- Zendaya (Euphoria)
Will Win – This is a potential three-way race between Zendaya, Melanie Lynskey, and Laura Linney. The latter is the least likely to win of the three. Most critics and pundits seem to agree that based purely on the nominees’ submitted performances, Zendaya should win this award. However, we all know award shows are as much about the intangibles as they are about the actual performances. And some of the intangibles here are that Zendaya’s already won. Will the Academy vote to award her again, so soon? There’s also been very vocal grassroots support for Lynskey. All that said, I still think Zendaya’s going to win. And yes, I realize that means I think the Drama categories will be a repeat of 2020. Euphoria’s inclusion in the Drama Series category, coupled with the numerous other nominations it received, I believe shows that the Academy has great respect for the show overall. And it’s universally acknowledged that Zendaya’s performance this past season was stellar.
Could Win – Melanie Lynskey, of course. But don’t sleep on Laura Linney who is an industry veteran with three previous Emmy wins. This is also her final chance to win for her role on Ozark.
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
- Nicholas Braun (Succession)
- Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
- Kieran Culkin (Succession)
- Park Hae-soo (Squid Game)
- Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
- John Turturro (Severance)
- Christopher Walken (Severance)
- Oh Yeong-su (Squid Game)
Will Win – The consensus appears to be that this is a fight between the Succession guys – well, two of them (no offense Nicholas Braun – but the nomination was the win here). That is, Kieran Culkin and Matthew Macfadyen, with many pundits predicting Macfadyen to take it. However, I think this is finally Kieran Culkin’s time. He’s been a standout on the show from the start but has yet to get Emmy glory. I believe it’ll happen this year.
Could Win – Matthew Macfadyen. However, I wouldn’t completely discount the Severance actors, as we saw Billy Crudup sweep in and win for The Morning Show two years ago. Turturro and Walken are both legendary, well-respected actors on a critically acclaimed show. That’s always a great recipe for a win.
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
- Patricia Arquette (Severance)
- Julia Garner (Ozark)
- Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game)
- Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
- Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)
- J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
- Sarah Snook (Succession)
- Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria)
Will Win – I admit I’m the most unsure with this category. So I’ll defer to the critics, and go with Rhea Seehorn.
Could Win – It’d certainly be silly to bet entirely against someone who’s won this category multiple times. And for that reason, I have to say Julia Garner is a strong possibility to win.
Best Limited Series
- Dopesick
- The Dropout
- Inventing Anna
- Pam and Tommy
- The White Lotus
Will Win – Contrary to the above, I’m going to go against the popular opinion, which predicts a win for The White Lotus, and say Dopesick is going to win. It’s my belief that everything about Dopesick is perfect for a win in this category – great acting, an important story that explores a very real and complex issue, character-driven, etc.
Could Win – This is a two-way race between Dopesick and The White Lotus. So if the former doesn’t win, it’ll be the latter.
Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Colin Firth (The Staircase)
- Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven)
- Oscar Isaac (Scenes From a Marriage)
- Michael Keaton (Dopesick)
- Himesh Patel (Station Eleven)
- Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)
Will Win – This may be the most sewn-up category of the night. It’s going to be Michael Keaton for Dopesick, without question.
Could Win – Michael Keaton. Okay, yes, I should acknowledge the buzz around Himesh Patel’s performance in Station Eleven. But I don’t think voters will switch from Keaton in this category.
Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Toni Collette (The Staircase)
- Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”)
- Lily James (“Pam and Tommy”)
- Sarah Paulson (“Impeachment: American Crime Story”)
- Margaret Qualley (“Maid”)
- Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”)
Will Win – This is a tough category because at least four of these women gave stellar performances. That said, it’s still mostly a one-woman race, and that’s Amanda Seyfried. She gave herself completely over to embody every facet of Elizabeth Holmes.
Could Win – I think both Margaret Qualley and Toni Collette are significant threats in this category. I’ve heard the talk about Lily James possibly winning. However, I don’t see it happening.
Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
- Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
- Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
- Will Poulter (Dopesick)
- Seth Rogen (Pam & Tommy)
- Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
- Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)
- Steve Zahn (The White Lotus)
Will Win – Another category I’m not as confident about, so I’ll defer to the pundits, who all appear to believe it’s a slam-dunk for Murray Bartlett.
Could Win – There’s been a lot of talk about Seth Rogen’s performance in Pam & Tommy. So a possible win here would not be that shocking.
Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
- Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
- Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
- Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)
- Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick)
- Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus)
- Sydney Sweeney (The White Lotus)
- Mare Winningham (Dopesick)
Will Win – Putting aside that the Television Academy apparently didn’t think any actress outside of The White Lotus and Dopesick gave a strong supporting performance, this is a likely sure thing for Jennifer Coolidge.
Could Win – Mare Winningham gave the type of performance in Dopesick that voters love – emotional, heart-wrenching, and deeply internalized.
Outstanding Comedy Series
- Abbott Elementary
- Barry
- Curb Your Enthusiasm
- Hacks
- The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
- Only Murders In the Building
- Ted Lasso
- What We Do In the Shadows
Will Win – Whoo boy the comedy categories are a doozy this year. For most of the categories, there are at least three or four potential winners. And the Comedy Series category is no different. Ted Lasso still has a lot of buzz around it, Hacks has only gone from strength to strength, Barry is back after a long wait, Only Murders in the Building is in the mix for the first time, and of course, there’s the network darling, Abbott Elementary. So which one will take it? I am genuinely torn on this one and so I’m going with my gut and picking Abbot Elementary.
Could Win – Ted Lasso or Only Murders in the Building. I don’t think it will be Hacks or Barry, great as they are.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
- Donald Glover (Atlanta)
- Bill Hader (Barry)
- Nicholas Hoult (The Great)
- Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
- Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
- Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Will Win – As I said, the comedy categories are a doozy. Either of the four of Bill Hader, Jason Sudeikis, Steve Martin, and Martin Short could win here. That said, I will go against the consensus that seems to believe Bill Hader is the likely winner and pick Jason Sudeikis.
Can Win – Bill Hader or Steve Martin. Martin may win just for that brilliant elevator scene alone. And it would be well-deserved.
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
- Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
- Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
- Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
- Elle Fanning (The Great)
- Issa Rae (Insecure)
- Jean Smart (Hacks)
Will Win – Unlike Comedy Series and Lead Actor, this category is less competitive, with the winner likely coming down to just two women – Jean Smart and Quinta Brunson. My gut says it will be the former. I believe Brunson’s glory will come for writing for a Comedy Series, for which she’s nominated.
Could Win – Quinta Brunson.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
- Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
- Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
- Toheeb Jimoh (Ted Lasso)
- Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
- Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
- Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
- Henry Winkler (Barry)
- Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
Will Win – There’s been a lot of talk that this category will likely come down to the Ted Lasso actors, with Toheeb Jimoh edging out last year’s winner, Brett Goldstein. I don’t think that will be the case. I think Goldstein, like Sudeikis, will repeat.
Could Win – Toheeb Jimoh and Henry Winkler. I wouldn’t count Henry Winkler out here.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
- Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
- Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
- Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
- Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
- Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)
- Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
- Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
- Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Will Win – Many pundits believe this will be a battle of the two Hannahs, with Hannah Waddingham edging out the win. Not a wild prediction as Waddingham has been on a roll, winning everything last year, including the Emmy. And she had another stellar performance this past season of Ted Lasso. However, I’m going to swerve away from the consensus and say Janelle James will win for Abbott Elementary. While the entire cast of Abbott Elementary is amazing, and it would be nice to see an industry vet like Sheryl Lee Ralph get her flowers, James’ Ava was the true scene stealer of the season.
Could Win – Hannah Waddingham or Hannah Einbinder. Unfortunately, I don’t think Ralph has a real shot in this category. If the voters stick to the predictable choices, the winner will likely be one of the Hannahs.