Breaking Down the 2020 Oscar Race – The Sequel

And now it’s time to look at how the Best Director, Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor races may shape up, come Oscar time. In case you missed it, click here to read what I think of the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress races, based on the various nominations to this point.

Here’s a quick reminder of the nominees in the specific categories, for three of the major precursor Award Shows. Naturally, there is no Best Director category for SAG, as it only honors acting performances.

THE GOLDEN GLOBES

Best Director

• Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
• Sam Mendes – 1917
• Todd Phillips – Joker
• Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
• Annette Bening – The Report
• Laura Dern –  Marriage Story
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Best Supporting Actor

• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
• Al Pacino – The Irishman
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

Best Director

• Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
• Greta Gerwig – Little Women
• Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
• Sam Mendes – 1917
• Josh Safdie and Benny Safdie – Uncut Gems
• Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

• Laura Dern – Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
• Florence Pugh – Little Women
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell
• Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
• Al Pacino – The Irishman
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

SAG AWARDS

Best Supporting Actress

• Laura Dern – Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
• Nicole Kidman – Bombshell
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Best Supporting Actor

• Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Al Pacino – The Irishman
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

And once again, it’s time to break down what this all means for these three categories, for this year’s Oscar race.

BEST DIRECTOR

Before I state who I believe are the locks at this point, I must first address the fact that once again, there is controversy around female directors being mostly shut out of the category. And at the center of this controversy once again, is Greta Gerwig, as she was a few years ago when she was not nominated for a Golden Globe for Ladybird. That year, Gerwig did eventually get the Oscar nod. I’m not so sure that’s going to be the case this year. Largely owing to the fact that I just don’t think Little Women is going to be the huge Award contender many predicted and expected it to be.

And full disclosure, despite the rave reviews, I have very little interest in the film because frankly, I don’t feel like we needed another adaptation of Little Women. And I wonder if some voters simply feel the same way that I do. That while I’m sure the individual acting performances were great and Gerwig’s direction was wonderful, is this film really bringing anything unique and exciting? Just my humble opinion of course.

So now let’s talk about the locks. At this point, it’s looking like the Director category may likely be a three-man race between Bong Joon Ho for Parasite, Martin Scorsese for The Irishman and Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. All three showed up for the Globes and the Critics Choice. Also, the various critics’ circle awards have been going to Joon Ho, with Scorsese a runner up for a few, while the National Board of Review awarded Tarantino with their Best Director award. Plus, all three films directed by these three individuals are consistently being nominated for Best Picture. Hard to bet against them with those odds.

The last two spots are where it gets tricky. Noah Baumbach directed one of the best films of the year if the critical reception is anything to go by. And he certainly seems a lock for the Screenwriting category, as well as three of the actors from the film being locks for various Acting categories.  And yet, at this point in time, he seems a long shot at best for a Best Director nod. He didn’t get a Globe nomination in the category and hasn’t won or been a runner up for any of the critics’ circle awards.

The other long shot in this category is Todd Phillips who directed one of the biggest blockbusters of the year, i.e. Joker. However, while he got a Globe nomination, he didn’t get one for the Critics Choice, and that’s with the category extended to include seven nominees. Also working against Phillips is that while Joaquin Phoenix’s performance in the film has been universally praised, the film itself got mixed reviews. Still, the overwhelming love for the film from the HFPA (it received Best Picture, Director, Actor and Score nods for the Golden Globes) may be a sign of things to come. And this may propel Phillips into that fifth spot.

The final potential nominee I must focus on is Sam Mendes for 1917. This is an odd one because, by all accounts, 1917 seems a possible lock for a Best Picture nomination and Mendes got the Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations for Best Director. He’s also a former Academy Award-winning Best Director, for American Beauty. So by all accounts, he should be considered a lock and yet it just feels like 1917 is merely a placeholder this Award season. A film to fill in slots but not one that’s being passionately discussed and celebrated. It almost feels like it’s sort of just there – as in an, “oh yeah 1917 was great”. And I can’t imagine it having much to talk about in terms of commercial success. So you almost have to wonder if this could hurt Mendes’ chances, to where he may be just gets forgotten by the voters. I don’t think so but anything’s possible.

So with all of this said, here are my tentative predictions at this point, for who I believe will get a Best Director nod, come Oscar morning.

• Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
• Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Sam Mendes – 1917
• Todd Phillips – Joker

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

At this point in time, the three obvious locks for the Supporting Actress category are Laura Dern for Marriage Story, Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers and Margot Robbie for Bombshell.  All three actresses were nominated for the Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globes. The last two spots are where it gets a little tricky. And as we well know, history has proven that the Supporting categories are often where things can go very crazy when it comes to the Oscars.

So who are the non-locks with the most potential to get a nomination come Oscar announcement morning? Top of the list, in my opinion, is Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell. Word is the film is a bit of a mixed bag for critics. However, Bates won the National Board of Review for Supporting Actress and got a Globe nomination. And it’s Kathy Bates – a legendary actor who is always amazing in everything she does. So you never want to bet against her.

Right on Kathy Bates’ heel with the most likely chance to get a nomination, is Florence Pugh for Little Women. Pugh won The Chicago Film Critics Award for Supporting Actress and got a Critics Choice nomination. So much like Bates, she has one critical circle award and nominated for only one of the major Award Show precursors.

And then there’s Nicole Kidman who suddenly popped up out of nowhere, earning a SAG nomination for Bombshell. Up ‘til that point, the Acting nods for Bombshell seemed to be all about Margot Robbie and Charlize Theron. And it’s hard to dismiss Kidman, based on how often she shows up in various award circles, year after year. Voters clearly love and respect her.

The final potential nominee is Zhao Shuzhen for The Farewell. She got a Critics Choice Award nomination and was runner up to Jennifer Lopez for The L.A. Film Critics Circle Award for Supporting Actress.

There is heavy talk of a potential double nomination for Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit in this category. And I guess it makes sense when you consider she got a Critics Choice and SAG nomination. Right now though, I don’t see it happening. I think it’s likelier we may see a surprise nominee like Jo Yeo-Jeong from Parasite. Especially if that film shows up big Oscar morning, as many are expecting it to. Think Marina de Tavira getting nominated seemingly out of nowhere, for Roma.

So here’s how I see things shaping up, at this moment in time. These predictions are of course more than likely to change the closer we get to the Oscar nomination announcement. Especially with this category, where really almost anything can happen.

• Laura Dern – Marriage Story
• Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell
• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
• Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Supporting Actor is far less complicated than Supporting Actress. At this point in time, there are four locks here – Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Al Pacino for The Irishman, Joe Pesci for The Irishman and Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. So it’s down to a final spot.

SAG randomly threw in Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy but I don’t see that happening. This is to me Emily Blunt getting nominated (and winning) last year for Supporting Actress for A Quiet Place and Idris Elba being nominated (and winning) for Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation. Neither of them received an Oscar nomination. And my feeling is the same is likely to occur with Jamie Foxx.

The true potential long shots for this fifth and final spot are in my opinion, Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes, Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse and Song Kango Ho for Parasite. Anthony Hopkins seems the most likely option, having been nominated for The Critics Choice and The Golden Globes. The fact that The Two Popes is a strong contender to make it into the Best Picture category, should also help his chances.

Willem Dafoe is a much loved and respected actor. However, other than his nomination for The Critics Choice, he hasn’t shown up anywhere else and the film hasn’t exactly been a force in other categories. In fact, if Dafoe was to be nominated, it’d likely be the only one the film gets, except for maybe a technical category or two. So hard to see him getting in.

Song Kang Ho seems a long shot because outside of winning the L.A. Film Critics Circle Award for Supporting Actor, he hasn’t shown up at any of the major Award precursors. That said, Parasite did receive a SAG Ensemble Acting nomination, which recognizes all the actors in the film. As I noted above regarding the Supporting Actress category, depending on how strong the Parasite love is come Oscar morning, it’s very possible that Kang Ho gets in.

Here is how I see this possibly shaping up.

• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman
• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Al Pacino – The Irishman
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

And there you have it. I’m probably going to be dead wrong about some of these or likely change a bunch of them before Oscar nominations are announced. But this is how my gut tells me these categories are likely to shape up in a few weeks.

Top 10 Favorite MET Gala Looks

The 2018 MET Gala is officially in the bag. And with a theme like, “Heavenly Bodies: Fashion and the Catholic Imagination”, it was no surprise that the red carpet was littered with the color white, literal crosses and of course, a lot of dramatic religious imagery.

As always, there were some who had fun with theme and got it so right, others who might as well have been walking any old red carpet and those who just seemed confused.

Sifting through all the madness, here are my top ten looks from this year’s Gala. In case you’re wondering what my criteria was in choosing these looks, it was simple – did it reflect the theme and it was fun and interesting. So here we go.

Rihanna (Maison Margiela) – Well, of course. You knew that BadGalRiRi was going to shut it down as she does almost every year. Especially considering she was a co-chair of this year’s Gala, which meant all eyes were on her even more than usual. And boy did she deliver. I wasn’t absolutely in love with the dress itself but the attention to detail with all the intricate beading and stitching was absolutely impeccable. And that coat was just all kinds of fierce. All hail the Queen!

 

Cardi B (Moschino) – I have to give Cardi B. props for serving up this look while heavily pregnant because that thing looked heavy. It was worth it though. Serving serious “Virgin Mary” (and I know some religious zealots were really uncomfortable with that imagery) vibe, the rapper delivered a perfectly dramatic, over the top and on theme look for her first MET Gala.

 

Zendaya (Versace) – What I love the most about this was that Zendaya thought outside of the box. It would have been so easy to just automatically cling to something white and church-like, as many others did. However, Zendaya expanded the theme to more than just a church service and paid homage to Catholic saint, Joan of Arc. It was a bold and powerful look and gave us all kinds of Girl Power! feels.

 

Ariana Grande (Vera Wang) – I’ll be honest. Watching pictures online and some of the coverage the night of the Gala, I completely dismissed this number nice as enough but nothing special. That was until I saw a high quality, high-resolution picture of it and saw the incredible detailing of the Sistine Chapel. I immediately fell madly in love with the whole look – beautiful and ethereal as only Vera Wang can do it.

 

Darren Criss (Dolce & Gabbana) – I like but don’t love this look and I’m so disappointed about the reason I’m not in love with it. It’s because the fit is off, which surprises me greatly because if there is one thing I have always loved about Darren Criss’ fashion sense, is how impeccably tailored his looks often are. And I feel like this look missed the mark by a smidgeon, just because of the tailoring. That said, I couldn’t in all good conscience keep it off this list with that amazing and gorgeous detailing on the jacket, down to the shoes. The color is stunning as well.

 

Kate Bosworth (Oscar de la Renta) – Heavenly indeed. This look is the definition of soft and ethereal. It’s like she’s floating. I saw many comments about the look giving some “wedding day” vibes but I actually think First Communion or Confirmation. That veil just screams receiving the sacrament to me.

 

Chadwick Boseman (Versace) – I imagine that events like these are particularly difficult for the male celebrities, as they are so used to getting away with a simple black tux at 90 percent of Hollywood events. But when they’re willing to embrace their inner fashion diva, they can hit out the park, like Boseman did this in this “Sunday priest meets Shaft” Versace number.

 

Migos (Gucci) – Again, it’s all in the details. This is how you stick to the theme while not becoming a complete caricature (looking at you Katy Perry). Those jackets are just simply fierce. The colors are gorgeous, the details impeccable and kudos to all three guys for ensuring that they were all well tailored and properly fitted.

 

Greta Gerwig (The Row) – The hills are alive with the sound of music! Okay, I could not be the only one who felt the need to break out into this number when I saw this look. Ms. Gerwig serving us all kinds of nunnery chic. I will admit I had thoughts of how hot was she during the night and how difficult was it to use the bathroom but hey, you know what they say, “Fashion is Pain”.

 

Jared Leto (Gucci) – And drumroll…my final favorite look from this year’s MET Gala, of course goes to “Jesus Christ Superstar” himself, Jared Leto. I almost feel like it’s a bit of a cheat though, to include Jared on this list and hell the MET even having this theme because let’s face it, Jared would probably wear this look in his everyday life. So he probably didn’t have to step too far outside his comfort zone on this one. But you still have to give the guy props for committing so fully to his look. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s still so pretty.

*Images Courtesy Google Images*

90th Academy Awards – Best & Worst

 

This was not one of my favorite Oscar ceremonies by a long shot. Hell, it was a struggle trying to find five things I truly loved about it. Of course, as is often the case, I didn’t have the same struggle finding five things I didn’t love. But I managed and here you have it – my best and worst of Oscars 2018.

BEST

1. Almost as Good the Second Time Around – There weren’t as many laugh-out-loud moments in this year’s monologue but just as he did last year, Jimmy Kimmel delivered a strong and steady performance as host. And like last year, this was once again due largely in part to his not trying too hard and simply sticking to a formula that works for him. Like Seth Meyers at this year’s Golden Globes, Kimmel didn’t shy away from the very tough and awkward issues facing the industry. But he somehow managed to find that very delicate balance of still being funny, while addressing some decidedly unfunny issues.

 

2. All Hail the Montages – I know this one might be an unpopular opinion but sue me, I’m a woman who loves a good montage. The more the merrier I say. And this year’s ceremony definitely did not lack for it. From the repeat of last year’s previous winners’ montage before presenting the acting awards, to a celebration of military themes/images/stories in film, the celebration of and need for more diversity in film, etc. It was a montage-palooza and I loved every single one.

 

3. Jet Ski Gag – Some things are a staple of any Oscar ceremony – at least the ones of the last decade. And that is, the host makes a crack about the too long speeches (and let’s face it, many of them are pretty long, which makes an already long show, even longer). Sure enough, in his opening monologue, Kimmel addressed the speech length issue. This year, however, he decided to sweeten the pot for the winners – teasing a Jet Ski for whoever delivered the shortest speech. Best part of this gag – the Queen herself, Helen Mirren playing the Price Is Right girl, showing off the Jet Ski. The gag was played up throughout the night, with multiple nominees referencing it. In the end, the big winner was Mark Bridges, winner for Best Costume Designer. He not only won the Jet Ski but got to ride off with Helen Mirren in the back. I mean what could be more awesome than that?

 

4. Rachel Shelton’s Speech – Much has been made about Frances McDormand’s speech for Best Actress, where she celebrated all the female nominees in all categories. And taking nothing away from McDormand’s speech, which was wonderful, one of the highlights of the night for me in the speeches category was that of Rachel Shenton, one of the winners for Best Short Film (Live Action) for The Silent Child. Celebrating the theme of the film, which looks at the world through the eyes of a deaf child, Shenton delivered her speech using both words and sign language. It was for me, one of the most moving moments of the night.

 

5. In Memoriam – Um, Eddie Vedder performed. Do I really need to say more?

 

WORST

1. Predictability Makes for a Monotonous Night – It’s usually very easy to predict the Oscar winners due to the myriad of smaller award ceremonies in the months leading up to the show. That said, some years, we get an actual battle between nominees, to where the winner is not a lock on Oscar night. This was not one of those years. About the only category where the winner didn’t seem a sure thing was Best Picture, where both The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri came in as strong contenders. However, most of the major categories, including acting, director, screenplay, etc. were all pretty much sewn up weeks ago, which made for a pretty dull night. Awesome as Frances McDormand, Gary Oldman, Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney all were, by Sunday night, I’d watch them more or less deliver the same speech numerous times. I can’t help it, I was kind of hoping for an upset or two.

 

2. Continued Shade at the Best Director Nominees – Listen, I’ve already shared my thoughts on the #TimesUp and #MeToo movements and of course as a woman and just a human being, I fully support the conversation and fight for women equality and representation. That said, I do not believe that dismissing others’ accomplishments is a positive way to navigate this fight and achieve the end goals. Yes, Greta Gerwig is talented and more than deserving of her Oscar nomination. But I have yet to hear anyone make a genuine case suggesting that any of the men also nominated in the Best Director category were undeserving of said nomination and that Guillermo Del Toro was undeserving of his win. And yet, many felt it was necessary to take swipes at the male nominees in the category. Just like Natalie Portman’s shade at the Golden Globes was unnecessary (particularly, as later noted, in light of her being one who signed a petition to pardon Roman Polanski some years ago), so too was Emma Stone’s “four men and Greta Gerwig” reference, when presenting Best Director. It is also important to note, that in all the swiping, there was little recognition of the fact that Del Toro, who is Mexican and an immigrant, represents a triumph in light of another very important social issue.

 

3. Movie Theatre Bit – As much as I loved the Jet Ski gag is how much I didn’t love the movie theatre bit. I get that this will essentially be a thing whenever Kimmel hosts – i.e. finding a way to pull regular folks into the telecast. And I guess it’s great for the people who got to be a part of it but I personally found it tedious and unnecessary in a show that is already way too long.

 

4. Tiffany Haddish – Okay, just to be clear, I think Tiffany Haddish is very talented and I am happy that after all her years of hard work, she’s having amazing success right now. And there’s something to be said for always unabashedly being yourself and loving every moment of your success. However, there’s also something to be said for not always having the dial turned up to a 100. I have the same struggle with Haddish that I have had with Sofia Vergara, where I feel like there’s a shtick that plays a bit into stereotypes and at times, that shtick starts to feel a little exhausting and played out.

 

5. Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez Win Best Song – Um, why? Seriously, in that category of nominees that included Sufjan Stevens’ sumptuous “The Mystery of Love” that so perfectly captures the beauty and tranquillity of Call Me By Your Name or Benj Pasek and Justin Paul’s empowering anthem “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman, the winner was “Remember Me” from Coco? Really? This is as bad as Sam Smith’s win for his anemic Bond theme song.

 

FASHION

And of course, I could not conclude without including a few of my favorite fashion moments from the night and of course the worst (this year, there was so much awful that I have three worst dressed).

BEST

Jennifer Garner (Atelier Versace) – I don’t think Jennifer Garner has looked this good since her Alias days. I would like to think it’s because she’s finally realized what a loser Ben Affleck is and is completely over him.

Greta Gerwig (Rodarte) – There is just something so warm and bright about this dress and the whole look. And she pulls it off perfectly with minimal jewelry and the short flapper hairdo.

Lupita Nyong’o (Atelier Versace) – I’m not absolutely in love with the dress and it’s not something I would personally wear but she wears it well and it perfectly achieves the look and statement she was going for.

Meryl Streep (Christian Dior Haute Couture) – It cannot be overstated that there is truly something to be said for a woman who understands her body and what works for her. And that is definitely Meryl Streep. She never tries too hard and just always sticks to what works.

Allison Janney (Reem Acra) – Not really in love with the long dangling sleeves but talk about working your curves. This was sleek and simplicity did to perfection.

WORST

And now to the worse offenders. I always think with some of these looks, “do they not have family and friends?”

St. Vincent (Saint Laurent) – Look, I’m all about trying to make a statement and marching to the beat of your own drum. But there’s being quirky and different and just plain shitty fashion choices. This was an example of the latter.

Emma Stone (Louis Vuitton) – I’m confused. Was this a case of, “I’m not nominated this year so I don’t give a shit?” Don’t get me wrong, I’m always here for an awesome woman’s power suit but this wasn’t it. This looked like a bunch of pieces from a few different suits, thrown together. What, did her gown get stuck at customs or something?

Maya Rudolph (Valentino) – That this was a Valentino gown both stuns and baffles me. I adore Maya Rudolph but this look screamed, “I am here under duress”.

*All images courtesy Google Images*