2024 Academy Awards Predictions

Lights, camera, action! Oscars 2024 is almost here. Will Oppenheimer continue its months-long dominance and sweep most of the major categories, will Lily Gladstone pull a late-season upset and become the first Native American woman to win Lead Actress? In just a few days, all will be revealed. 

But until then, I have a few thoughts. Here are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. 

BEST PICTURE 

• American Fiction 
• Anatomy of a Fall 
• Barbie 
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Past Lives 
• Poor Things 
• The Zone of Interest 

Will Win – It’s Oppenheimer. Similar to last year’s dominant sweep by Everything Everywhere All At Once, no other film has a shot. This category has been sewn up for months. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) 
• Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”) 
• Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)

Will Win – Much like Best Picture, this one’s been over for months. It’s Christopher Nolan. 

BEST LEAD ACTOR 

• Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) 
• Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) 
• Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) 
• Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) 

Will Win – For many months, my gut kept telling me that this category had the potential to become a tight race between Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. However, Cillian Murphy’s win at the SAG Awards may suggest otherwise. He’s the heavy odds-on favorite to win. But a little voice in me says that there is the potential of a shocking upset on Oscar Sunday and Paul Giamatti wins. Albeit, the potential is very small. 

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

• Annette Bening (“Nyad”) 
• Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
• Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) 
• Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)

Will Win – Who knew that this was going to be the acting category to emerge with the most intrigue? Especially since many initially thought Lily Gladstone made a mistake submitting in Lead versus Supporting Actress. But here we are, unsure which way this category will go come Oscar Sunday. If we only go by last year, the similarities are striking and it certainly suggests Lily Gladstone will win, much like Michelle Yeoh did, despite Cate Blanchett mostly sweeping the Awards Season. However, Killers of the Flower Moon is certainly not as beloved as Everything Everywhere All At Once was and Poor Things, while not expected to win Best Picture, is fairly critically loved. So hard to say, but I think voters will ultimately lean towards the film they loved more and Emma Stone will win.   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

• Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”) 
• Robert DeNiro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
• Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) 
• Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”) 

Will Win – It’s a slam-dunk and it’s not even close. Robert Downey Jr. will win his first Oscar in a long and lustrous career. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) 
• America Ferrera (“Barbie”) 
• Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) 
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)

Will Win – Like Supporting Actor, this one is a done deal and has been so since the Oscar race began. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has this one in the bag. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

• American Fiction
• Barbie
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Will Win – This category has shaped up to be a very interesting one. And with the Writer’s Guild Awards taking place after the Oscars this year, they are no help in sifting through the nominees and picking the potential winner. Months ago, I think many might have thought this would be a fight between Oppenheimer and The Zone of Interest. However, a late-season surge has positioned American Fiction in a much stronger position than many initially realized. I think its win at BAFTA was incredibly significant and for that reason, I’m picking American Fiction to take this one. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

• Anatomy of a Fall 
• The Holdovers 
• Maestro 
• May | December 
• Past Lives 

Will Win – When Awards Season began, I think many expected this category to be a lock for Celine Song for Past Lives. Unfortunately, I think it’s clear much of the wind has been knocked out of Past Lives’ sails. And therefore, I’d say right now, the very heavy favorite to win this category is Anatomy of a Fall. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Past Lives pulls off the upset. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• El Conde 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – Another sure win for Oppenheimer. Although, if any film could pull an upset here, it would be Poor Things, which I think represents a pretty formidable foe to Oppenheimer. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

• Bobi Wine: The People’s President 
• The Eternal Memory 
• Four Daughters 
• To Kill a Tiger 
• 20 Days in Mariupol 

Will Win – This might have been a more competitive category if some of the early season favorites, such as American Symphony and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie had gotten in. However, as it were, 20 Days in Mariupol has been unstoppable for months and I don’t see that changing come Oscar night. 

BEST FILM EDITING 

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – Hard to bet against the woman responsible for editing Oppenheimer into a tight three-hour story that never felt guilty of superfluous scenes and moments. It’s Oppenheimer and a win for Jennifer Lame. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• Io Capitano (Italy)  
• Perfect Days (Japan) 
• Society of the Snow (Spain) 
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
• The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

Will Win – This could have been one of the most competitive categories of the whole night, had France not made the bonehead decision to submit The Taste of Things, instead of Anatomy of a Fall as its submission. So as it stands, this is a slam-dunk, pack it up, it’s over, win for The Zone of Interest.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt 
• “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson 
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Music and Lyric by Scott George 
• “ What Was I Made For?” from Barbie, Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell 

Will Win – It’s the battle of the Barbie songs. It seems a foregone conclusion that this will be another Oscar win for the writing duo of Billie and Finneas. However, Academy voters have shown many times in the past that they love to sometimes skew to the off-beat and “unexpected” choices in this category. So don’t be shocked if I’m Just Ken pulls off the upset. Plus, the fact that Billie and Finneas won this category barely three years ago, in 2021, may work against them. Especially considering how young they both are. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Barbie 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Napoleon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – This is a two-horse race between Poor Things and Barbie. There is certainly a strong case to be made for Barbie, but I think Poor Things will edge it out. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• The Creator 
• Godzilla Minus One 
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One 
• Napoleon 

Will Win – It feels like this should be a slam dunk for Godzilla Minus One. However, there is The Creator, which while certainly not a mainstream film, delivered incredible visual effects. Hard to say which way this one will go, especially since the entire Academy votes on the winner, and not everyone truly understands what constitutes great visual effects. In the interest of having to pick a winner, I’ll go with Godzilla Minus One. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• The Boy and the Heron 
• Elemental 
• Nimona 
• Robot Dreams 
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 

Will Win – At the start of this Awards Season, I believed this category was a slam dunk for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. But then the televised awards began and The Boy and the Heron has won every major award, except the Critics Choice. So now I’m torn, and thinking that it may be The Boy and the Heron’s to lose. However, it should be noted that the Animation Guild and PGA awarded Spider-Man the win. Who would have thought Best Animated Film would turn out to be such a hotly debated category? I am predicting Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to win, with the expectation that the wider Academy will have more love for it versus The Boy and the Heron. However, I’m doing so with the caveat that I can absolutely see The Boy and the Heron winning instead. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Barbie 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Napoleon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – Another Barbie versus Poor Things showdown. While a strong case can be made for both films, I do see the argument that as stunning as the Barbie costumes were, the costume designer had a reference point to work from, while Poor Things is mostly the costume designer’s imagination. It’s similar to last year’s argument in this category of Elvis versus Wakanda Forever. On that logic, I’m going with Poor Things for the win. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

• Golda 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 
• Society of the Snow 

Will Win – If there is any category where Maestro has an excellent shot of taking home a win, it is this one. And that is exactly what I believe will happen on Oscar night. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• American Fiction 
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Will Win – There are some amazing movie scores in this category, as well as some heavyweight nominees. However, one score, in particular, has been dominant throughout the season. And I believe that streak will continue when Ludwig Göransson picks up his second Oscar for Best Original Score, for Oppenheimer. 

BEST SOUND

• The Creator 
• Maestro 
• Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One 
• Oppenheimer 
• The Zone of Interest 

Will Win – There is some intrigue in this category, as many loved the eerie disturbing sounds of The Zone of Interest. However, it’s hard to bet against a film that featured the sounds of a whole atomic bomb exploding. I’m going with Oppenheimer.

2024 Golden Globes Recap

The 2024 Golden Globes are officially in the bag. We now have an idea of what direction this new voting body is going to take moving forward, and I’m not sure I love it (more on that below). There isn’t much to say about the ceremony, therefore, rather than a best and worst, I’ll just list a few key takeaways I had about the ceremony. 

• Less Time for the Host’s Monologue – Don’t worry, I will not add to the pile-on of poor Jo Koy. That said, awful jokes aside, there was simply no reason the monologue should have been 15 minutes long in the first place. Award shows producers are always bleating about time, going as far as trying to remove categories during the telecast. But I find it odd that none of them have considered cutting down the host’s monologue. I get that the hosts are typically comedians, which means a pseudo stand-up routine is what works best for them. But the bottom line is people don’t watch these shows for the host – they watch to see if their favorite films or shows win and to see their favorite celebrities. I do believe cutting down these opening monologues to five minutes or less would be a game-changer.

• No Shocking Upsets – The one thing the Globes were known for was doing the unexpected. You could always count on them making some of the most surprising and random choices in a few categories. That did not happen last night. Many wondered how this new voting body would proceed – would they stick with the old unpredictably or fall more in line with the critics and popular opinions? And now we know. As I mentioned in my TikTok video, I’m a bit torn. While I’m happy if this means that most of the corruption of the old HFPA is gone, I liked that the Globes were unexpected. They didn’t just fall in line with The Emmy Awards and other big shows. Because of this, we rarely saw any show or film sweep like we saw on Sunday night.

• Oppenheimer Has All the Momentum – Of course, we know that Globes winners don’t always hold up come Oscar Sunday. However, for now, at least, I think it’s a safe bet to say Oppenheimer is looking very strong for an eventual Best Picture win. At the least, I’d say Best Director for Christopher Nolan, Best Original Score, and probably Best Supporting Actor are very likely.

• Anatomy of a Fall Emerges, Past Lives Stumbles – Late last summer, if you had asked many to predict the films likely to dominate at this year’s Oscars, you probably would have heard Barbie and Oppenheimer, of course, Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives. Sunday night’s Golden Globes placed a huge question mark on the latter’s award chances. And today’s SAG Awards nominations announcement further solidified that question mark. More than Past Lives seemingly fading as a favorite, was the emergence of Anatomy of a Fall as a potential favorite to watch out for. At a minimum, I think they’re a lock for Best International Film (editing this because just remembered that Anatomy of a Fall is ineligible for Best International Film because for whatever reason France chose to submit The Taste of Things as their submission rather than Anatomy of a Fall).

• Best Actress is a Two-Woman Race – Unsurprisingly, Globes solidified that this year’s Best Actress race is a two-way race between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone. Similar to last year’s Globes, where Cate Blanchett won Actress – Drama and Michelle Yeoh won Actress – Comedy/Musical, Gladstone and Stone’s wins in the respective categories have solidified them as locks. It’s hard to tell right now which way this will end. However, subsequent ceremonies – Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG should make things a lot clearer by Oscar Sunday.

2024 Golden Globes Predictions – Movies

And we have arrived at the movies portion of my predictions. Buckle in, as this one may be a little all over the place. And once again, I anticipate half of these being wrong. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the movie categories for this year’s Golden Globes Awards.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Oppenheimer
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Past Lives
• The Zone of Interest
• Anatomy of a Fall

Prediction: Yeah, I’m going to play it safe and say Oppenheimer. I could see a potential Past Lives upset, but I think voters will stick with the predictable option. 

BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY 

• Barbie
• Poor Things
• American Fiction
• The Holdovers
• May December
• Air

Prediction: This one is a lot harder to predict. Conventional wisdom would say Barbie seems the obvious choice. However, Poor Things is a huge critical darling. Torn, but I’ll say Barbie, just because of its cultural and monetary impact last year.

BEST DIRECTOR, MOTION PICTURE 

• Bradley Cooper — “Maestro”
• Greta Gerwig — “Barbie”
• Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things”
• Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer”
• Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Celine Song — “Past Lives”

Prediction: I think Oppenheimer is going to have a big night, and so I’m predicting Christopher Nolan here. 

BEST SCREENPLAY, MOTION PICTURE

• Barbie — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
• Poor Things — Tony McNamara
• Oppenheimer — Christopher Nolan
• Killers of the Flower Moon — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
• Past Lives — Celine Song
• Anatomy of a Fall — Justine Triet, Arthur Harari

Prediction: I’m torn on whether voters will appreciate the originality of Poor Things or the adaptive work of Killers of the Flower Moon. I’ll go with Poor Things.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA 

• Bradley Cooper — “Maestro”
• Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer”
• Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Colman Domingo — “Rustin”
• Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers”
• Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn”

Prediction: I think this may be Cillian Murphy’s to lose. However, I would not be entirely shocked or upset to see Bradley Cooper pull off the win. Either way, I think this win will set the stage for either the beginning of a sweep or shine a light on a possible favorite.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA

• Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Carey Mulligan – “Maestro”
• Sandra Hüller – “Anatomy of a Fall”
• Annette Bening — “Nyad”
• Greta Lee — “Past Lives”
• Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla”

Prediction: Without the presence of Emma Stone who has possibly the most buzz for the Best Actress category, this is likely to come down to Lily Gladstone or Carey Mulligan. I think Mulligan will take it. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Fantasia Barrino – “The Color Purple”
• Jennifer Lawrence – “No Hard Feelings”
• Natalie Portman – “May December”
• Alma Pöysti – “Fallen Leaves”
• Margot Robbie – “Barbie”
• Emma Stone – “Poor Things”

Prediction: Although I believe Emma Stone will be a heavy favorite to win the Oscar, I am going to go out on a big limb here and boldly predict that Fantasia will win. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario”
• Timothée Chalamet — “Wonka”
• Matt Damon — “Air”
• Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers”
• Joaquin Phoenix — “Beau Is Afraid”
• Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction”

Prediction: This feels like a wide-open category. However, with all the positive buzz around The Holdovers, I am going to predict Paul Giamatti for the win. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – MOTION PICTURE 

• Willem Dafoe — “Poor Things”
• Robert DeNiro — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer”
• Ryan Gosling — “Barbie”
• Charles Melton — “May December”
• Mark Ruffalo — “Poor Things”

Prediction: Charles Melton has been having some early pre-season critical success. I think that may continue. If not, I believe this may be the start of Robert Downey Jr.’s awards season run. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE

• Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer”
• Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple”
• Jodie Foster — “Nyad”
• Julianne Moore — “May December”
• Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn”
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers”

Prediction: Globes have shown love for Rosamund Pike in the past, and this category tends to be one of their more unpredictable ones. That said, I think Da’Vine Joy Randolph will continue her early, pre-season run and win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE, MOTION PICTURE

• Ludwig Göransson — “Oppenheimer”
• Jerskin Fendrix — “Poor Things”
• Robbie Robertson — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
• Mica Levi — “The Zone of Interest”
• Daniel Pemberton — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
• Joe Hisaishi — “The Boy and the Heron”

Prediction: Poor Things is such an inventive, out-of-the-ordinary film that it would seem the sure thing here. But a little voice is telling me that voters will stick to the predictable option of Oppenheimer. 

BEST PICTURE, NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — France
• “Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Finland
• “Io Capitano” (01 Distribution) — Italy
• “Past Lives” (A24) — United States
• “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — Spain
• “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — United Kingdom

Prediction: I have no idea how or why Past Lives is included in this category, but no matter the reason, it will likely win. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG, MOTION PICTURE 

• “Barbie” — “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas
• “Barbie” — “Dance the Night” by Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
• “She Came to Me” — “Addicted to Romance” by Bruce Springsteen and Patti Scialfa
• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” — “Peaches” by Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond, and John Spiker
• “Barbie” — “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
• “Rustin” — “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz

Prediction: This will likely be the start of a clean sweep for Billie and Finneas for What Was I Made For. Of course, if voters lean more towards the quirky, fun and truly original, we may see another Barbie hit – I’m Just Ken – take the big prize.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, ANIMATED 

• “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
• “Elemental” (Disney)
• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal Pictures)
• “Suzume” (Toho Co.)
• “Wish” (Disney)

Prediction: Because I haven’t seen many of these, I will err on the side of caution and go with the buzz and say either The Boy and the Heron or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. 

BEST CINEMATIC AND BOX-OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

• “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
• “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Disney)
• “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate Films)
• “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal Pictures)
• “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (AMC Theatres)

Prediction: Hard to imagine an award show passing up the opportunity to blow more smoke up Taylor Swift’s ass, but I’m pretty sure this is an easy win for Barbie.