At this time last year, all the talk regarding Award season was about A Star is Born, Green Book and whether or not Roma would become the first Foreign Language film and more importantly, the first Netflix film, to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
Well, we know what happened there and while debates were heated for the “who will win”, the nominations at least seemed all but sewn up. Not so this year. This week’s Golden Globe and SAG Award nomination announcements threw a giant wrench in a lot of people’s previously held predictions.
Here’s a refresher of the nominees for three of the big pre-Oscar ceremonies (The BAFTA Awards are important too but nominations won’t be announced until the New Year) – The Golden Globes, The Critics Choice Awards, and The SAG Awards.
THE GOLDEN GLOBES
Best Picture – Drama
- The Irishman
- Marriage Story
- 1917
- Joker
- The Two Popes
Best Picture – Comedy/Musical
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Jojo Rabbit
- Knives Out
- Rocketman
- Dolemite is My Name
Best Actor – Drama
- Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
- Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
Best Actress – Drama
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
- Daniel Craig – Knives Out
- Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit
- Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Taron Egerton – Rocketman
- Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
- Awkwafina – The Farewell
- Ana de Armas – Knives Out
- Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette
- Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
- Emma Thompson – Late Night
CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
Best Picture
- 1917
- Ford v. Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
- Uncut Gems
Best Actor
- Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
- Robert De Niro – The Irishman
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
- Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
Best Actress
- Awkwafina – The Farewell
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Lupita Nyong’o – Us
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
SAG AWARDS
Best Ensemble
- Bombshell
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actress
- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Lupita Nyong’o – Us
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actor
- Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Taron Egerton – Rocketman
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Now let’s discuss what the hell these nominations tell us about what is going on with this year’s Oscar race.
BEST PICTURE
There are quite a few locks in this category. The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and possibly JoJo Rabbit, seem like sure bets at this point. I want to tentatively say, especially with the fact that the Academy can now nominate up to 10 films, that Parasite, which is certain to win Best Foreign Language Film, may also be a potential lock.
Especially since while it didn’t get any individual acting nominations at SAG, it did receive an Ensemble nomination, which is pretty significant. The film also received a Best Picture nomination for the Critics Choice and of course, The Globes do not allow a Foreign Language film nominee into the Best Picture category, which likely explains its exclusion in the Best Picture – Drama category. So more than likely Parasite is in.
The question marks here are Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell, The Two Popes and 1917. 1917 and Joker both got a Critics Choice and Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, whereas Bombshell, Ford v. Ferrari and The Two Popes only show up for one of the three Awards Shows. Bombshell only received an Ensemble nomination for SAG, Ford v Ferrari only got a Critics Choice nod and The Two Popes only got a Golden Globe nod.
So with all that said, if I had to make a prediction at this point in time for Best Picture for the 2020 Academy Awards, I would go with the following:
- The Irishman
- Marriage Story
- Jojo Rabbit
- Parasite
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- 1917
- Ford v. Ferrari
- Joker
- Bombshell
I know the Academy can nominate up to ten films, but I don’t think they will. And if they limit to eight like they did last year, my bet is on either Ford v Ferrari or Bombshell not getting in.
BEST ACTOR
At this point, the solid locks for Best Actor appear to be Adam Driver for Marriage Story and Joaquin Phoenix for Joker. A week or so ago, one might have assumed Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory would have been considered a lock. But then SAG nominations happened, where he did not get into the Lead Actor category. However, his getting in for the Globes does help his chances a bit, except of course that Globes separate Drama and Comedy, which allows for more room to celebrate more performances.
Leonardo DiCaprio is shaping up to be a likely suspect in this category. The Award Season love for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems to be pretty strong and it is Leo DiCaprio, who is beloved and very well-respected in the industry. And he’s now gotten the Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nod. So hard to bet against him.
So the wildcards at this point are Robert DeNiro for The Irishman, Taron Egerton for Rocketman; Antonio Banderas, Christian Bale for Ford v Ferrari and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems.
Adam Sandler is out in my opinion. This is Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, Part 2. Hawke cleaned up with the Critics last year and yet was completely snubbed by the Globes, SAG and eventually the Oscars. I see the same happening with Adam Sandler. Even with the Comedy and Drama split, he still missed out on the Globes and of course the SAG. He got Critics Choice but so did Hawke last year.
Antonio Banderas and Christian Bale are strong contenders. Banderas has won many precursor awards and he got in with the Globes and the Critics. Bale, on the other hand, missed out on the Critics but got the Globe and the SAG nomination. At this point, De Niro seems like a massive long shot, having missed out on the Globes and The SAG.
But I still can’t shake the feeling that the Academy is not going to ignore such a legendary actor, especially if The Irishman cleans up with Oscar nods, as it’s expected to. As for Egerton, honestly, I underestimated his even being in the conversation at this point. But that SAG nom was huge. Still, he didn’t get a Critics nod, even with seven spots up for grabs. I can’t see an Oscar nod happening for him. At this point, my tentative prediction for how the Best Actor category will shape up, are as follows.
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
- Adam Driver – Marriage Story
- Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
- Robert De Niro – The Irishman
BEST ACTRESS
So the locks in this category are obviously Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story and Renee Zellweger for Judy. And there are three spots all over the place.
Despite the film Harriet getting very mixed reviews, Cynthia Erivo seems to be making a very solid push to getting her first Oscar nomination. She must have spoken with Rami Malek, who proved last year that one’s film getting mixed reviews is no deterrent to winning a leading performance, Oscar. A few months ago, many predicted that there would possibly be a battle between Erivo and Lupita Nyong’o for a spot in the Lead Actress category. If that is the case, Erivo may have the slight edge, having bested Nyong’o for the Globe nod in Best Actress (Drama).
However, they are both nominated for the Critics Choice and The SAG. So it’s more than likely that rather than an either/or as some experts were predicting, they may both get in for Lead Actress. Charlize Theron seems a likely suspect for a fifth spot, scoring nods for the Globes, Critics Choice and The SAG, for her performance in Bombshell. And being a former Lead Actress Oscar winner could further help her campaign to get into one of the five slots.
At this point, the long shots for this category are Saoirse Ronan for Little Women and Awkwafina for The Farewell. Both got in for The Globes and The Critics Choice but were left out for The SAG. So hard to say if either has a shot of sneaking into one of these Lead Actress spots. Ronan may seem the likelier option, just based on her past history as a two-time Lead Actress nominee. That said, Little Women doesn’t seem to be performing as well at the major Award shows, as many expected and some even predicted.
So with that said, here are my tentative predictions for the possible Best Actress nominees, come Oscar night, 2020.
- Renee Zellweger – Judy
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Charlize Theron – Bombshell
- Lupita Nyong’o – Us
- Awkwafina – The Farewell
Clearly, I had a lot to say here, so look out for my next post, when I’ll break down the Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director Races.
PoPnOgR@PhY 