Breaking Down the 2020 Oscar Race

At this time last year, all the talk regarding Award season was about A Star is Born, Green Book and whether or not Roma would become the first Foreign Language film and more importantly, the first Netflix film, to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

Well, we know what happened there and while debates were heated for the “who will win”, the nominations at least seemed all but sewn up. Not so this year. This week’s Golden Globe and SAG Award nomination announcements threw a giant wrench in a lot of people’s previously held predictions.

Here’s a refresher of the nominees for three of the big pre-Oscar ceremonies (The BAFTA Awards are important too but nominations won’t be announced until the New Year) – The Golden Globes, The Critics Choice Awards, and The SAG Awards.

THE GOLDEN GLOBES 

Best Picture – Drama 

• The Irishman
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Joker
• The Two Popes

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical 

• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Jojo Rabbit
• Knives Out
• Rocketman
• Dolemite is My Name

Best Actor – Drama

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
• Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Best Actress – Drama 

• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger – Judy

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

• Daniel Craig – Knives Out
• Roman Griffin Davis – Jojo Rabbit
• Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman
• Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical 

• Awkwafina – The Farewell
• Ana de Armas – Knives Out
• Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette
• Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
• Emma Thompson – Late Night

 

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS 

Best Picture

• 1917
• Ford v. Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite
• Uncut Gems

Best Actor 

• Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Eddie Murphy –  Dolemite is My Name
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
• Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Best Actress

• Awkwafina – The Farewell
• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
• Lupita Nyong’o – Us
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger – Judy

SAG AWARDS 

Best Ensemble

• Bombshell
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actress 

• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
• Lupita Nyong’o – Us
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger –  Judy

Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actor 

• Christian Bale – Ford v. Ferrari
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Taron Egerton – Rocketman
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Now let’s discuss what the hell these nominations tell us about what is going on with this year’s Oscar race.

 

BEST PICTURE

There are quite a few locks in this category. The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and possibly JoJo Rabbit, seem like sure bets at this point. I want to tentatively say, especially with the fact that the Academy can now nominate up to 10 films, that Parasite, which is certain to win Best Foreign Language Film, may also be a potential lock.

Especially since while it didn’t get any individual acting nominations at SAG, it did receive an Ensemble nomination, which is pretty significant. The film also received a Best Picture nomination for the Critics Choice and of course, The Globes do not allow a Foreign Language film nominee into the Best Picture category, which likely explains its exclusion in the Best Picture – Drama category. So more than likely Parasite is in.

The question marks here are Joker, Ford v Ferrari, Bombshell, The Two Popes and 1917. 1917 and Joker both got a Critics Choice and Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, whereas Bombshell, Ford v. Ferrari and The Two Popes only show up for one of the three Awards Shows. Bombshell only received an Ensemble nomination for SAG, Ford v Ferrari only got a Critics Choice nod and The Two Popes only got a Golden Globe nod.

So with all that said, if I had to make a prediction at this point in time for Best Picture for the 2020 Academy Awards, I would go with the following:

• The Irishman
• Marriage Story
• Jojo Rabbit
• Parasite
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• 1917
• Ford v. Ferrari
• Joker
• Bombshell

I know the Academy can nominate up to ten films, but I don’t think they will. And if they limit to eight like they did last year, my bet is on either Ford v Ferrari or Bombshell not getting in.

BEST ACTOR

At this point, the solid locks for Best Actor appear to be Adam Driver for Marriage Story and Joaquin Phoenix for Joker. A week or so ago, one might have assumed Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory would have been considered a lock. But then SAG nominations happened, where he did not get into the Lead Actor category. However, his getting in for the Globes does help his chances a bit, except of course that Globes separate Drama and Comedy, which allows for more room to celebrate more performances.

Leonardo DiCaprio is shaping up to be a likely suspect in this category. The Award Season love for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood seems to be pretty strong and it is Leo DiCaprio, who is beloved and very well-respected in the industry. And he’s now gotten the Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nod. So hard to bet against him.

So the wildcards at this point are Robert DeNiro for The Irishman, Taron Egerton for Rocketman; Antonio Banderas, Christian Bale for Ford v Ferrari and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems.

Adam Sandler is out in my opinion. This is Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, Part 2. Hawke cleaned up with the Critics last year and yet was completely snubbed by the Globes, SAG and eventually the Oscars. I see the same happening with Adam Sandler. Even with the Comedy and Drama split, he still missed out on the Globes and of course the SAG. He got Critics Choice but so did Hawke last year.

Antonio Banderas and Christian Bale are strong contenders. Banderas has won many precursor awards and he got in with the Globes and the Critics. Bale, on the other hand, missed out on the Critics but got the Globe and the SAG nomination. At this point, De Niro seems like a massive long shot, having missed out on the Globes and The SAG.

But I still can’t shake the feeling that the Academy is not going to ignore such a legendary actor, especially if The Irishman cleans up with Oscar nods, as it’s expected to. As for Egerton, honestly, I underestimated his even being in the conversation at this point. But that SAG nom was huge. Still, he didn’t get a Critics nod, even with seven spots up for grabs. I can’t see an Oscar nod happening for him. At this point, my tentative prediction for how the Best Actor category will shape up, are as follows.

• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Leonardo Dicaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
• Robert De Niro – The Irishman

BEST ACTRESS

So the locks in this category are obviously Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story and Renee Zellweger for Judy. And there are three spots all over the place.

Despite the film Harriet getting very mixed reviews, Cynthia Erivo seems to be making a very solid push to getting her first Oscar nomination. She must have spoken with Rami Malek, who proved last year that one’s film getting mixed reviews is no deterrent to winning a leading performance, Oscar. A few months ago, many predicted that there would possibly be a battle between Erivo and Lupita Nyong’o for a spot in the Lead Actress category. If that is the case, Erivo may have the slight edge, having bested Nyong’o for the Globe nod in Best Actress (Drama).

However, they are both nominated for the Critics Choice and The SAG. So it’s more than likely that rather than an either/or as some experts were predicting, they may both get in for Lead Actress. Charlize Theron seems a likely suspect for a fifth spot, scoring nods for the Globes, Critics Choice and The SAG, for her performance in Bombshell. And being a former Lead Actress Oscar winner could further help her campaign to get into one of the five slots.

At this point, the long shots for this category are Saoirse Ronan for Little Women and Awkwafina for The Farewell. Both got in for The Globes and The Critics Choice but were left out for The SAG. So hard to say if either has a shot of sneaking into one of these Lead Actress spots. Ronan may seem the likelier option, just based on her past history as a two-time Lead Actress nominee. That said, Little Women doesn’t seem to be performing as well at the major Award shows, as many expected and some even predicted.

So with that said, here are my tentative predictions for the possible Best Actress nominees, come Oscar night, 2020.

• Renee Zellweger – Judy
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell
• Lupita Nyong’o – Us
• Awkwafina – The Farewell

Clearly, I had a lot to say here, so look out for my next post, when I’ll break down the Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director Races.

2016 Screen Actors Guild Awards

The 2016 Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) were held this past Saturday. A much more low-key affair than The Golden Globe Awards for example, The SAGs are important because over the years it has become a fairly accurate indicator of who is likely to take home the little gold statue on Oscar night. And while this year is likely no different for some categories, due to some very surprising and unexpected nominees by the SAG-AFTRA voters and by that token winners, some categories are still up in the air. So here are the five key takeaways I had from last week’s show.

SAG Awards “Not So White” – You would have to be living under a rock to not be aware of the current Oscars controversy due to all the acting nominees once again, being white. I even made a post talking about the controversy. And because of said controversy, more eyes were likely on the SAG Awards, which meant it was a little hard to not notice how many people of color were awarded at Saturday’s show. The cynics will likely say it was a manipulative attempt at proving how not racist Hollywood really is and while I can be as cynical as the best of them, I actually don’t agree. For one thing, Viola Davis and Uzo Aduba, as well as the show Orange Is The New Black were all repeat winners. And I think Downton Abbey’s three-peat win for Ensemble Acting in a Drama proves that the SAG voters can be just as stuck on their favorites as the Primetime Emmy Awards. Idris Elba’s double win may have seem shocking but just his nomination for Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation, as well as the movie getting a Best Ensemble Movie nomination showed that SAG voters liked what they saw and unlike The Academy voters, were not turned off by the film being distributed through Netflix. So I do believe everyone who won that night, earned their win fairly.

Clear Your Shelves Leo and Brie – Most pundits have been predicting Leonardo Dicaprio and Brie Larson as the hands on favorites to win Best Actor and Best Actress respectively, at this year’s Academy Awards. However, things can go topsy turvy at times and an actor who starts the season as the favorite sort of falls behind and someone else forges ahead – see last year’s Best Actor race where early odds had Michael Keaton as the heavy favorite before Eddie Redmayne swooped in and won. However, after Saturday’s win for both Dicaprio and Larson, I think we can lock these categories down and both can start clearing their shelf space for the little gold man.

SAG-AFTRA Voters Can Be Predictable Too – I have made no secret of the fact that one of the things I hate about the Primetime Emmy Awards in particular, is its predictability. The Emmys are known for actors and shows having repeat wins, sometimes three, four and even five-peat as in the case of Modern Family’s Best Comedy wins. The SAGs are not quite as bad as the Emmys but it was clear that there were some favorites voters loved voting for. While I can’t quibble too much with Viola Davis and Uzo Aduba’s wins, as well as Orange is the New Black, since they have both only won twice, I am truly baffled by Downton Abbey’s three-peat win for Best Ensemble Drama. Yes, I will concede that I checked out of the show two seasons ago but come on. I cannot imagine that this show is collectively the strongest group of actors in a drama three years in a row, especially as I didn’t think they were when I was watching the show. Sure Maggie Smith is always a revelation but the rest of the cast is merely just decent and sometimes very good, in my opinion.

Feeling The Idris Love – SAG-AFTRA voters are clearly very impressed with Idris Elba. The actor walked away with two wins, making him the first male actor to win two SAG awards at the same ceremony (the only other actor to do so was Helen Mirren in 2007). His wins came for Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation and Best Actor in a Mini Series/Made for Television Movie for the British cop hit Luther. The Supporting Actor win was particularly bittersweet as Elba was not even nominated in the category for The Oscars. Still, it was a small consolation and to be honest, kind of a nice F-U to The Academy voters.

Not So Clear Favorites – As clear as the Best Actor and Best Actress Oscar races are, the same cannot be said for the Supporting categories. Truthfully, the Supporting Actor and Actress categories have a long history of surprise wins and upsets at The Oscars and this year’s race is one of the most wide open ones, particularly Best Supporting Actor. Most critics will say it’s likely going to be a nostalgic win for Sylvester Stallone and I can see that. He’s a legend, he’s nominated for playing a legendary character in a stellar reboot of the beloved Rocky franchise and he’s never won. Still, Idris Elba’s win at the SAG awards where Stallone wasn’t even nominated, makes the category seem a little more unpredictable, not to mention Stallone was also not nominated for a British Academy of Film and Television Award (BAFTA). So it will be interesting to see what happens on Oscar night. Some might say the Supporting Actress category is also up in the air but I think Alicia Vikander’s win on Saturday night, particularly on the heels of a Critics Choice win for the same category makes her odds-on favorite. However, perhaps the biggest question mark is for Oscar night’s biggest category – Best Picture. The early favorite has been Spotlight and Saturday’s win for Best Ensemble makes it clear they’re still a heavy favorite. However, the SAG Awards honors the ensemble work of the actors in a film, which doesn’t always equate with the film being considered the best picture of the year. See American Hustle winning Best Ensemble in 2014 while 12 Years A Slave went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. The biggest dent in Spotlight’s winning Best Picture was the surprise upset at the Producer’s Guild Awards that saw The Big Short take home the top honors. This was huge for a few reasons – one, the PGA has correctly indicated 19 of the last 26 Best Picture winners including the last eight and two, most thought this was a race between Spotlight and The Revenant.  The Big Short‘s win has put the whole category into a tailspin. Should be a fun night come Oscars Sunday.

2016 Golden Globes Award

My very first post of this blog was a recap of the 2015 Golden Globes Awards. So how fitting that my very first post of the New Year is a recap of this year’s ceremony. I have already expressed my love for this show, which is often deemed one of Hollywood’s biggest parties. The mixing and mingling of movie and television stars, not to mention all the free alcohol, makes for one fun night that sees its fair share of the funny, heartfelt and awkward as hell. And this year’s ceremony was certainly no different. The following are some of my highlights from last night’s ceremony.

He’s Back – The beer was chilled and waiting and just like that, Ricky Gervais was back as host. And if you thought time away might have tamed him a little, you were sorely mistaken. I think it might have made him even more brutal and cutting. He was as biting, snarky and unrelenting as ever. Not to mention hysterically funny. If there was one criticism to be had about his opening monologue, is that it was way too short.

Congratulations Freshman Class of 2016 – It wouldn’t be the Golden Globes if there weren’t a lot of fresh faces and this year was no different. As is often the case, wins in the television categories were dominated by new shows and this year it was all about USA’s brilliant Mr. Robot and Amazon’s Mozart In The Jungle. The latter won Best Comedy Series, as well as a Best Actor in a Comedy Series for its lead Gael Garcia Bernal. Mr. Robot saw wins for Best Drama and Best Supporting Actor for veteran Hollywood actor Christian Slater. And following in the footsteps of last year’s golden girl Gina Rodriguez, another CW break-out star walked away with the Best Actress in a Comedy Series, with Rachel Bloom winning for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend. On the movie front, the name Brie Larson was probably not instantly recognizable to many at the start of this Awards season but something tells me it will be by the end, as she is looking more and more like the heavy favorite to win the Academy Award this year for Best Actress for her spellbinding performance in Room.

Speeches (The Good, The Bad and Awkward) – This year’s ceremony, much like most Award ceremonies definitely saw its share of awkward and bad speeches.

• Good – There were many speeches that were short, simple, sweet and heartfelt but two of the ones that most stood out was Sylvester Stallone’s after winning his first Golden Globe ever, for Creed and Leonardo Dicaprio, after winning for The Revenant. Sly’s winning moment was special right from the start, with the entire room giving him a rousing and heartfelt standing ovation. You could see what the reaction and the moment meant to him. And he could not have summed it up any better, than with a thank you to the greatest imaginary friend he ever had…Rocky Balboa. While I do wish he’d thanked more of the team on Creed, I understand that he was overwhelmed and it was just an oversight. This was certainly not Leo’s first Golden Globe win by any means, but it was still wonderful to see the reaction and further get that sense of how much the industry respects him. Barring some crazy, unexpected circumstance, I cannot see Leo not winning the Oscar this year and it will be well OVERDUE in my opinion.  As for his speech, as usual it was articulate, well thought out, intelligent and heartfelt.
• Bad – For me this was undoubtedly Quentin Tarantino and Taraji P. Henson. Let’s start with Tarantino who first of all, didn’t actually win an award. He simply went up to accept the Best Original Score award for winner Ennio Morricone, who won for composing the score for the Tarantino directed film The Hateful Eight. But for some reason, Tarantino seemed to believe that directing the film qualified him to make a whole speech on Morricone’s behalf. And it wouldn’t have been so bad if the speech didn’t turn out to be such a disaster. First, he incorrectly stated that Morricone has never won an award for any movie he’s done, which um no…he’s won two Golden Globes for prior movie scores. And then Tarantino pissed of black Twitter with his comment about Morricone not being just his favorite movie composer because that’s ghetto. Yeah…let’s just say it was a blessing when he stopped talking and got off the stage. And then there was Taraji P. Henson. I guess at this point you kind of know what you’re going to get with Taraji, for better or for worse, and well that’s what we got. But sometimes a little of something goes a long way and a little of Taraji is definitely all we need. The crack about the producers trying to play her off was a little funny but it was all so loud and aggressive and just too much.
• Awkward – I don’t begrudge Rachel Bloom her excitement and joy at winning her first Golden Globe but WOW was she awkward on that stage. From practically screaming her entire speech, then the over the top gestures to her boobs looking like they were very close to popping out of that green dress…the whole thing was really just one giant awkward mess. But perhaps the night’s most awkward speech was Denzel Washington’s for his Cecil B. DeMille honor. And that’s really unfortunate because Denzel has had a stellar career and the honor was more than deserved. But despite knowing ahead of time that he was going to be honored as all the honorees do every year, Denzel came across as completely and wholly unprepared for the moment. He made some quip about forgetting his glasses and I guess that being the reason for his speech being kind of a mess but that’s a pretty lame excuse. And again, that saddens me because Denzel has a career and is an actor worthy of an exceptional tribute, including an amazing speech.

Didn’t See That Coming – Even with the Globes’ reputation for awarding fresh faces and newcomers, there are still some wins that can leave the viewers and critics a little thrown.  Last night’s ceremony had quite a bit of that. At the start of the night, I was something like 0-3 in my predictions, which almost never happens with this show. One of the night’s biggest surprise was the HFPA’s obvious love for Steve Jobs, a movie that all but died at the box office, starting with Kate Winslet’s surprise win for Best Supporting Actress. I mean it is Kate Winslet, who let’s face it, is brilliant in everything she does. Still, she was by no means the favorite in this category and judging by her reaction, she obviously felt that way as well. And then there was Aaron Sorkin’s win for Best Screenplay, also for Steve Jobs and he too could not have looked more surprised. I think some might add Lady Gaga’s win for Best Actress in a Limited Series in this category but to be honest, I felt that was expected. That’s just the kind of gimmicky win the Globes love (no offense Gaga). All that said, perhaps the night’s biggest surprise was without a doubt The Revenant’s win for Best Drama over the highly acclaimed front-runner Spotlight. With that win, it has some wondering if Alejandro Inarritu and his team are going to pull off a two-peat Best Picture win at the Oscars, as they won last year for Birdman. It’s certainly now made the Best Picture race suddenly a lot more interesting. On a personal level, my biggest disappointment and surprise, was Rami Malek’s not winning Best Actor in a Drama for Mr. Robot. While I have nothing against Jon Hamm and I’m sure he was a deserving winner and it was his last chance to win for his role as Don Draper on Mad Men, it was hard to see Mr. Robot get so much love from the HFPA and Rami not win, when he basically carries the entire show. He is the most compelling thing about it. So that definitely sucked.

Fashion Police – And with that, we come to the fashion, because what is an award show without it. Once again, there was no true wow and stellar fashion moment for me but there were some pretty good ones. And of course there was the always, “WTH were you thinking and fire your stylist immediately.”

Best Dressed 

Lady Gaga in Atelier Versace

I wasn’t in love with the hair (looked a little old and washed out) but this dress was absolutely stunning. It was old-school Hollywood bombshell. Very Marilyn Monroe.

Jenna Dewan Tatum in Zuhair Murad

Honestly, I’m not personally a fan of big, dramatic ball gowns but I really loved the look of this dress and I think Jenna carried it off beautifully.

Laverne Cox in Elizabeth Kennedy

Stunning silhouette and she wore this gorgeously. The hair and makeup were also on point. White is not an easy to color to wear and Laverne pulled it off beautifully.

Emmy Rossum in Armani Prive

Not really a fan of the necklace but I think her body looks amazing in the dress and the color is stunning on her.

Brie Larson in Calvin Klein 

I’m not a big fan of the shiny, pageanty dress type look but if you are going to do it, this is the way to do it. Her body looked amazing in and the makeup and jewelry was perfectly understated.

Worst Dressed

This was a close one. There were many who were more than worthy of the honor (looking at you Kate Hudson) but at the end of the day, one stood out boldly amongst them all. Drum roll please… And this year’s Golden Globes worst dressed (according to me of course) is…

Regina King in Krikor Jabotian 

Oh where to begin…shall we talk about the cheap K-Mart looking shoes, the weird gold fish-scaly looking material of the dress or the random WTF white cape in the back? Like I don’t even have the words to accurately sum up this atrocity. I don’t think there are words that have yet been invented to explain this atrocity.